Fantasy ADP Risers and Fallers: Tyler Allgeier Climbs, Patrick Mahomes Slides (Week of July 28)
By Verdexed Analytics
The fantasy football market re-priced again this week. Between the July 21 and July 28 ADP snapshots, Tyler Allgeier climbed 12.8 picks to an ADP of 162.3 while Patrick Mahomes slid 27.7 picks to 103.2. This is the weekly movement report from the Verdexed draft board: what drafters did over the last week, and where our projections agree with the crowd or push back against it.
Average draft position is the market's consensus, aggregated from real drafts, and it moves for real reasons: injuries, depth chart changes, camp reports, and simple herd momentum. A move of a few picks inside a week is genuine re-pricing, not noise. The Verdexed board blends our projection model with that market signal at weights that earned their keep in a published ten year backtest, so when the two disagree below, the gap is the story.
The market's risers
Players being drafted meaningfully earlier than a week ago, with our board's read on each move.
**Tyler Allgeier (RB, ARI)**: ADP 175.1 to 162.3, up 12.8 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him RB59.
**Keaton Mitchell (RB, LAC)**: ADP 171.4 to 160.2, up 11.2 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB73, 16 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**Brenton Strange (TE, JAX)**: ADP 156.9 to 146.1, up 10.8 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE16.
**Isiah Pacheco (RB, DET)**: ADP 157.0 to 146.6, up 10.4 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him RB47.
**Kyler Murray (QB, MIN)**: ADP 150.1 to 139.8, up 10.3 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at QB22, 3 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**Makai Lemon (WR, PHI)**: ADP 106.9 to 97.7, up 9.2 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at WR51, 5 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
**Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN)**: ADP 130.8 to 121.9, up 8.9 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him RB39.
**Caleb Williams (QB, CHI)**: ADP 107.8 to 100.1, up 7.7 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits QB6 for us, 6 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position.
The market's fallers
Players sliding down draft boards, and whether we would catch the falling knife.
**Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)**: ADP 75.5 to 103.2, down 27.7 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks QB11 for us, 3 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Juwan Johnson (TE, NO)**: ADP 151.1 to 165.5, down 14.4 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE22.
**Jalen Nailor (WR, LV)**: ADP 134.1 to 146.5, down 12.4 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him WR65, 3 spots behind his market slot.
**Jerry Jeudy (WR, CLE)**: ADP 136.9 to 147.6, down 10.7 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks WR61 for us, 3 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA)**: ADP 157.4 to 167.6, down 10.2 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him WR76, 3 spots behind his market slot.
**Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)**: ADP 173.0 to 182.3, down 9.3 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE24.
**Tank Bigsby (RB, PHI)**: ADP 157.5 to 166.6, down 9.1 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB70, 11 spots behind his market slot.
**Aaron Jones Sr. (RB, MIN)**: ADP 92.0 to 100.6, down 8.6 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him RB36.
Where the Verdexed board pushes back
Movement aside, these are this week's largest standing gaps between our blended ranks and the market's draft slots: the discounts we would target and the prices we would not pay.
**Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, NYG)**: the market drafts him RB50 at ADP 156.5; our blend ranks him RB40. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA)**: the market drafts him RB54 at ADP 158.0; our blend ranks him RB44. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a PUP designation.
**Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)**: the market drafts him RB51 at ADP 156.9; our blend ranks him RB42. That is a 9 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Jared Goff (QB, DET)**: the market drafts him QB11 at ADP 99.5; our blend ranks him QB3. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Tank Dell (WR, HOU)**: the market drafts him WR72 at ADP 164.2; our blend ranks him WR64. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a Questionable designation.
**RJ Harvey (RB, DEN)**: the market drafts him RB33 at ADP 96.3; our blend ranks him RB26. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Mike Washington Jr. (RB)**: drafters take him RB47 at ADP 148.9; our blend has him RB86, 39 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Jonah Coleman (RB)**: drafters take him RB60 at ADP 167.7; our blend has him RB93, 33 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Antonio Williams (WR, WAS)**: drafters take him WR65 at ADP 151.8; our blend has him WR94, 29 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Zachariah Branch (WR)**: drafters take him WR76 at ADP 173.9; our blend has him WR100, 24 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Germie Bernard (WR)**: drafters take him WR71 at ADP 162.3; our blend has him WR93, 22 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB, JAX)**: drafters take him RB48 at ADP 151.1; our blend has him RB66, 18 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them. He carries a Questionable designation.
Our board moved too
The board rebuilds every Tuesday from fresh projections, depth charts, and injury data, so our own ranks move as well. The largest changes this week:
**Greg Dulcich (TE, MIA)**: climbed from TE100 to TE23 on our board this week.
**MarShawn Lloyd (RB, GB)**: climbed from RB89 to RB51 on our board this week.
**Jaydon Blue (RB, DAL)**: climbed from RB92 to RB55 on our board this week.
**Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)**: climbed from WR88 to WR72 on our board this week.
**Samaje Perine (RB, CIN)**: climbed from RB74 to RB61 on our board this week.
**Kenyon Sadiq (TE, NYJ)**: fell from TE20 to TE40 on our board this week. The Questionable designation is part of that math.
**Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)**: fell from QB3 to QB11 on our board this week. The Questionable designation is part of that math.
**Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA)**: fell from WR68 to WR76 on our board this week.
**Tank Bigsby (RB, PHI)**: fell from RB63 to RB70 on our board this week.
**Keaton Mitchell (RB, LAC)**: fell from RB66 to RB73 on our board this week.
How to use this
The full board lives at the Verdexed draft board, free, with tiers, floor and ceiling bands, and value badges on every ranked player in PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring. It rebuilds weekly through draft season, and this movement report publishes after every rebuild. How the blend works, and the decade of receipts behind it, wins and losses both, is on the methodology page.
One honest caveat: ADP movement tells you what drafts will look like, not what the season will. Use the market's move to know when a player you want will actually be taken, and use the board's gaps to decide whether the price is worth paying.