Best Bets for Sunday, November 15: SA 89%, BOS 84% and 16 More Picks Across the NFL, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
18 picks to win on the Model Cards for Sunday, November 15, across the NFL, NBA and NHL, plus 15 props. The firmest call is San Antonio Spurs at 89% (-1340). Yesterday's cards: NBA 1-3, NHL 3-3. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA at UTAH | Lock | SA | 89% | -1340 | 89% | 0 | NBA | injuries (UTAH without Markkanen, Jackson, Hayes; SA without Harris) +6.5, net rating, last 10 +5.7 |
| DAL at BOS | Lock | BOS | 84% | -750 | 85% | 0 | NBA | venue +4.7, head to head +4.6 |
| JAX at TEN | Lock | JAX | 82% | -650 | 83% | -1 | NFL | EPA per play +20.4, point margin +9.1 |
| LAR at ARI | Lock | LAR | 80% | -500 | 80% | 0 | NFL | EPA per play +19.0, point margin +8.2 |
| OKC at SAC | Lock | OKC | 80% | -468 | 79% | 0 | NBA | head to head +8.4, net rating, last 10 +5.9 |
| BUF at NYJ | Lock | BUF | 79% | -500 | 80% | -1 | NFL | EPA per play +19.7, point margin +8.5 |
| HOU at WSH | Lock | HOU | 74% | -359 | 75% | -1 | NBA | head to head +9.9, net rating, last 10 +8.1 |
| IND at PHI | Lock | PHI | 73% | -336 | 74% | -1 | NBA | head to head +6.0, net rating +2.2 |
| ATL at MIL | Lock | ATL | 72% | -324 | 73% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +6.9, net rating +4.3 |
| SEA at LV | Lock | SEA | 72% | -298 | 72% | 0 | NFL | EPA per play +22.4, point margin +7.5 |
| SF at DAL | Lock | SF | 70% | -218 | 66% | +4 | NFL | EPA per play +19.5, point margin +8.2 |
| VAN at VGK | Lock | VGK | 68% | -410 | 77% | -9 | NHL | expected goals +13.3, expected goals (5v5) +11.9 |
| HOU at CLE | Lock | HOU | 67% | -198 | 64% | +3 | NFL | EPA per play +19.4, point margin +6.7 |
| KC at ATL | Lock | KC | 65% | -175 | 61% | +4 | NFL | EPA per play +22.3, point margin +10.7 |
| NY at TOR | Play | NY | 63% | -191 | 63% | 0 | NBA | head to head +13.5, net rating, last 10 +7.6 |
| NSH at SJS | Play | NSH | 60% | -170 | 60% | 0 | NHL | back to back +7.3, expected goals +6.4 |
| CGY at ANA | Lean | ANA | 58% | -155 | 58% | 0 | NHL | expected goals +3.3, goal margin +2.4 |
| EDM at PHI | Lean | EDM | 57% | -148 | 57% | 0 | NHL | expected goals +8.6, goal margin +5.6 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
San Antonio Spurs over Utah Jazz, 89%, -1340. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (UTAH without Markkanen, Jackson, Hayes; SA without Harris) (+6.5 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.7 points), head to head (+3.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 13 games in) (-6.5 points). The line SA -15.5, total 225.5. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jaxson Hayes, Jusuf Nurkic, Lauri Markkanen, Trey Alexander.
Boston Celtics over Dallas Mavericks, 84%, -750. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+4.7 points), head to head (+4.6 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 13 games in) (-6.1 points). The line BOS -13.5, total 219.5. DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic. DAL is on the second of a back to back.
Jacksonville Jaguars over Tennessee Titans, 82%, -650. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+20.4 points), point margin (+9.1 points), offense (+4.1 points). The case against is defense (-1.8 points). The line JAX -10.5, total 45.5. JAX starter: Trevor Lawrence. JAX out: CJ Williams, Albert Regis, B.J. Green II, Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig, Jessie Bates III. TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Nicholas Singleton, Carnell Tate, Anthony Hill Jr., Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, Cody Barton. Crew: Alex Moore has been tough on JAX (+1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-1 in 3 games).
Los Angeles Rams over Arizona Cardinals, 80%, -500. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.0 points), point margin (+8.2 points), yards margin (+2.8 points). The case against is injuries (ARI without Wilson, Wingard; Melton day-to-day; LAR without Nacua; Garrett, Curl day-to-day) (-2.7 points). The line LAR -9.5, total 38.5. LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Davante Adams, Jordan Whittington, Puka Nacua, Terrance Ferguson, Steve Avila. ARI starter: Carson Beck. ARI out: Gardner Minshew II, Jalen Brooks, Michael Wilson, Hjalte Froholdt, Jon Gaines II.
Oklahoma City Thunder over Sacramento Kings, 80%, -468. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+8.4 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.9 points), venue (+4.3 points). The case against is defense (-3.5 points). The line OKC -10.5, total 223.5. OKC out: Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Thomas Sorber. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Maxime Raynaud.
Buffalo Bills over New York Jets, 79%, -500. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.7 points), point margin (+8.5 points), offense (+4.7 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-1.2 points). The line BUF -8.5, total 50.5. BUF starter: Josh Allen. BUF out: Shane Buechele, Tyrell Shavers, Ar'maj Reed-Adams, Greg Gaines, Jalon Kilgore. NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: Tim Patrick, Jelani Woods, Jarvis Brownlee Jr., Kiko Mauigoa, Nate Lynn.
Houston Rockets over Washington Wizards, 74%, -359. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+9.9 points), net rating, last 10 (+8.1 points), venue (+6.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 13 games in) (-11.4 points). The line HOU -8.5, total 223.5. HOU out: Clint Capela, Fred VanVleet, Marcus Smart, Steven Adams. WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic.
Philadelphia 76ers over Indiana Pacers, 73%, -336. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+6.0 points), net rating (+2.2 points), net rating, last 10 (+2.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 13 games in) (-3.3 points). The line PHI -8.5, total 225.5. IND out: Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, Tyrese Haliburton. PHI out: Adem Bona, Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow, Joel Embiid.
Atlanta Hawks over Milwaukee Bucks, 72%, -324. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+6.9 points), net rating (+4.3 points), motivation (+4.1 points). The case against is venue (-5.5 points). The line ATL -8.5, total 234.5. ATL out: Asa Newell, Henri Veesaar, Keshon Gilbert, Kingston Flemings, Mouhamed Gueye. MIL out: Ousmane Dieng.
Seattle Seahawks over Las Vegas Raiders, 72%, -298. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+22.4 points), point margin (+7.5 points), yards margin (+4.6 points). The case against is defense (-2.6 points). The line SEA -6.5, total 40.5. SEA starter: Drew Lock. SEA out: Sam Darnold, Charles Cross, Leonard Williams, Quenton Nelson, Terrion Arnold. LV starter: Fernando Mendoza. Crew: Brad Allen has been tough on LV (+1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-1 in 3 games).
San Francisco 49ers over Dallas Cowboys, 70%, -218. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.5 points), point margin (+8.2 points), yards margin (+3.7 points). The case against is injuries (DAL without Porter, Ferguson; Bland day-to-day; SF without Evans, Halton, Aiyuk; Green, Lenoir day-to-day) (-3.0 points). We like this side 4 points more than the price does. The line SF -4.5, total 55.5. SF starter: Brock Purdy. SF out: Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, C.J. West, Gracen Halton, Nate Hobbs. DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: Tyler Goodson, Jonathan Mingo, Jake Ferguson, Devin Moore, Donovan Ezeiruaku.
Vegas Golden Knights over Vancouver Canucks, 68%, -410. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+13.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+11.9 points), goal margin (+5.5 points). The case against is recent form (-10.1 points). The market is 9 points firmer on it than we are; we still have VGK as the more likely winner. The line VGK -1.5, total 6.5. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Guillaume Brisebois, Mackenzie MacEachern. VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). VGK out: Noah Hanifin. Crew: Kyle Rehman has been tough on VAN (1-10-3 in 14 games with this referee, a win rate 24 points below its norm under others).
Houston Texans over Cleveland Browns, 67%, -198. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.4 points), point margin (+6.7 points), offense (+5.4 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-3.0 points). We like this side 3 points more than the price does. The line HOU -4.5, total 40.5. HOU starter: C.J. Stroud. HOU out: David Montgomery, Jawhar Jordan, Jaylin Noel, Marvin Harrison Jr., Brevin Jordan. CLE starter: Deshaun Watson. CLE out: Dillon Gabriel, Taylen Green, Justin Jefferson, Michael Burton, Noah Igbinoghene.
Kansas City Chiefs over Atlanta Falcons, 65%, -175. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+22.3 points), point margin (+10.7 points), yards margin (+4.0 points). The case against is injuries (ATL without Deablo, Robinson, Walker; KC without Walker; Delane day-to-day) (-6.2 points). We like this side 4 points more than the price does. The line KC -3.0, total 47.5. KC starter: Patrick Mahomes. KC out: Garrett Nussmeier, Jaydn Ott, Kenneth Walker III, Ben VanSumeren, Jaylon Moore. ATL starter: Michael Penix Jr. ATL out: Andy Dalton, Jack Strand, Brian Robinson Jr., Zachariah Branch, Avieon Terrell.
New York Knicks over Toronto Raptors, 63%, -191. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+13.5 points), net rating, last 10 (+7.6 points), injuries (TOR without Barnes, Leonard) (+5.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 12 games in) (-6.9 points). The line NY -4.5, total 217.5. TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle, Scottie Barnes.
Nashville Predators over San Jose Sharks, 60%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.3 points), expected goals (+6.4 points), rest (+6.3 points). The case against is recent form (-5.5 points). The line NSH -1.5, total 6.5. NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). SJS starter: Alex Nedeljkovic (projected). SJS is on the second of a back to back.
Anaheim Ducks over Calgary Flames, 58%, -155. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+3.3 points), goal margin (+2.4 points), power play (+1.9 points). The case against is venue (-3.0 points). The line ANA -1.5, total 6.5. CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Connor Zary, Kevin Bahl, Jonathan Huberdeau. CGY is on the second of a back to back. ANA starter: Ville Husso (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, A.J. Greer. ANA is on the second of a back to back. Crew: Carter Sandlak has been friendly to ANA (-1.1 penalties a game versus its norm, 4-5-0 in 9 games).
Edmonton Oilers over Philadelphia Flyers, 57%, -148. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+8.6 points), goal margin (+5.6 points), home/road split (+4.2 points). The case against is recent form (-3.9 points). The line EDM -1.5, total 6.5. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula, Isaac Howard. EDM is on the second of a back to back. PHI starter: Dan Vladar. PHI out: Nikita Grebenkin. PHI is on the second of a back to back.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | EDM at PHI | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.4 | 84% | NHL |
| Cutter Gauthier | Lock | ANA | CGY at ANA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4 | 83% | NHL |
| Leon Draisaitl | Lock | EDM | EDM at PHI | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.9 | 82% | NHL |
| Jason Robertson | Play | DAL | FLA at DAL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 73% | NHL |
| Jalen Johnson | Lean | ATL | ATL at MIL | Over 20.5 points | 24.5 | 70% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | SA at UTAH | Over 29.5 points | 34.6 | 68% | NBA |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Lean | OKC | OKC at SAC | Over 31.5 points | 36.6 | 67% | NBA |
| Alperen Sengun | Lean | HOU | HOU at WSH | Over 21.5 points | 24.9 | 66% | NBA |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | LAL at PHX | Over 37.5 points | 43.3 | 66% | NBA |
| Brady Tkachuk | Lean | FLA | FLA at DAL | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.4 | 66% | NHL |
| Josh Allen | Lean | BUF | BUF at NYJ | Over 225.5 passing yards | 259.7 | 65% | NFL |
| Christian McCaffrey | Lean | SF | SF at DAL | Over 55.5 rushing yards | 71.9 | 65% | NFL |
| Joe Burrow | Lean | CIN | PIT at CIN | Over 285.5 passing yards | 328.3 | 65% | NFL |
| Patrick Mahomes | Lean | KC | KC at ATL | Over 280.5 passing yards | 322.5 | 65% | NFL |
| Brock Purdy | Lean | SF | SF at DAL | Over 275.5 passing yards | 316.5 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Games | JAX; LAR; BUF; SEA; SF; HOU; KC | +666 | 11% | +786 |
| NFL | Props | Josh Allen over 225.5 passing yards; Christian McCaffrey over 55.5 rushing yards; Joe Burrow over 285.5 passing yards; Patrick Mahomes over 280.5 passing yards; Brock Purdy over 275.5 passing yards | +741 (fair) | 12% | +740 |
| NFL | Best of both | JAX; LAR; BUF; Christian McCaffrey over 55.5 rushing yards; Joe Burrow over 285.5 passing yards; Patrick Mahomes over 280.5 passing yards | +496 | 14% | +591 |
| NBA | Games | SA; BOS; OKC; HOU; PHI; ATL; NY | +389 | 15% | +582 |
| NBA | Props | Jalen Johnson over 20.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 29.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points; Alperen Sengun over 21.5 points; Luka Doncic over 37.5 points | +628 (fair) | 14% | +628 |
| NBA | Best of both | SA; BOS; OKC; Jalen Johnson over 20.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 29.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points | +368 | 19% | +430 |
| NHL | Games | VGK; NSH; ANA; EDM | +445 | 14% | +631 |
| NHL | Props | Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal; Jason Robertson over 2.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 3.5 shots on goal | +267 (fair) | 27% | +267 |
| NHL | Best of both | VGK; NSH; ANA; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal | +472 | 14% | +640 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC at ATL | NFL | KC | 65% | 61% | +5 |
| SF at DAL | NFL | SF | 70% | 66% | +4 |
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at CIN | NFL | CIN | 53% | 63% | -10 |
| VAN at VGK | NHL | VGK | 68% | 77% | -9 |
| MIA at IND | NFL | IND | 61% | 66% | -5 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| SA at UTAH | NBA | UTAH without Markkanen, Jackson, Hayes; SA without Harris | 6.5 pts toward SA |
| KC at ATL | NFL | ATL without Deablo, Robinson, Walker; KC without Walker; Delane day-to-day | 6.2 pts against KC |
| NY at TOR | NBA | TOR without Barnes, Leonard | 5.9 pts toward NY |
| LAL at PHX | NBA | PHX without Williams; Timme day-to-day; LAL without Reaves; Thiero day-to-day | 5.6 pts against LAL |
| CAR at NO | NFL | CAR without Okereke, Jackson, Lee; Phillips, Legette day-to-day | 4.1 pts against CAR |
| JAX at TEN | NFL | TEN without Hill, Tate, Barton; JAX without Bates | 3.5 pts toward JAX |
| MIA at IND | NFL | IND without Davis-Gaither, Pierce; MIA without Sieler, Baker | 3.3 pts against IND |
| SF at DAL | NFL | DAL without Porter, Ferguson; Bland day-to-day; SF without Evans, Halton, Aiyuk; Green, Lenoir day-to-day | 3.0 pts against SF |
| BUF at NYJ | NFL | NYJ without Wallace; Cooper, Wilson day-to-day | 2.8 pts toward BUF |
| LAR at ARI | NFL | ARI without Wilson, Wingard; Melton day-to-day; LAR without Nacua; Garrett, Curl day-to-day | 2.7 pts against LAR |
| OKC at SAC | NBA | SAC without Raynaud; Murray, Achiuwa questionable; OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Wallace; Mitchell questionable | 2.5 pts against OKC |
| CHA at LAC | NBA | LAC without Ingram, Miller, Beal; CHA without Knueppel, Schroder | 1.7 pts toward LAC |
| MIN at GB | NFL | GB without Franklin, Jacobs, Parsons; McKinney, Bullard day-to-day; MIN without Cashman, Hockenson, Jennings; Addison day-to-day | 1.6 pts toward GB |
| ATL at MIL | NBA | MIL without Dieng; ATL without Flemings, Newell, Gueye | 1.3 pts against ATL |
| DAL at BOS | NBA | DAL without Lively; Christie doubtful, Gafford day-to-day | 1.1 pts toward BOS |
| HOU at WSH | NBA | WSH without Johnson, Carrington, Champagnie; Sarr day-to-day; HOU without VanVleet, Smart, Adams | 1.1 pts against HOU |
| HOU at CLE | NFL | CLE without Hickman, Igbinoghene; HOU without Al-Shaair, Hunter, Jordan; Anderson day-to-day | 0.6 pts against HOU |
| SEA at LV | NFL | SEA without Williams, Arnold | 0.5 pts against SEA |
| IND at PHI | NBA | PHI without Embiid, Barlow, Bona; IND without Nembhard, Sheppard, Furphy; Nesmith day-to-day, McConnell probable | 0.4 pts toward PHI |
| VAN at VGK | NHL | VGK without Hanifin; VAN without Brisebois | 0.4 pts against VGK |
| NSH at SJS | NHL | SJS without Chernyshov; Wennberg GTD; NSH: Marchessault GTD | 0.4 pts toward NSH |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | ATL at MIL | ATL 72% (our pick is the other side) |
| UTAH | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | SA at UTAH | SA 89% (our pick is the other side) |
| DAL | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | DAL at BOS | BOS 84% (our pick is the other side) |
| LAL | NBA | 2.4K km since the last game, road game 4 | LAL at PHX | LAL 57% (our pick) |
| OKC | NBA | road game 4 | OKC at SAC | OKC 80% (our pick) |
| FLA | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | FLA at DAL | DAL 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| DAL | NHL | second of a back to back | FLA at DAL | DAL 55% (our pick) |
| NSH | NHL | road game 4 | NSH at SJS | NSH 60% (our pick) |
| SJS | NHL | second of a back to back | NSH at SJS | NSH 60% (our pick is the other side) |
| CGY | NHL | second of a back to back | CGY at ANA | ANA 58% (our pick is the other side) |
| ANA | NHL | second of a back to back | CGY at ANA | ANA 58% (our pick) |
| EDM | NHL | second of a back to back | EDM at PHI | EDM 57% (our pick) |
| PHI | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | EDM at PHI | EDM 57% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 14)
NBA: 1-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at MIN | MIN | 88% | -1080 | Miss |
| DEN at NO | DEN | 83% | -620 | Hit |
| DAL at CLE | DAL | 68% | -355 | Miss |
| DET at MIA | DET | 60% | -173 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Over 22.5 points | 70% | 26 | Hit |
| LaMelo Ball | Over 28.5 points | 67% | 19 | Miss |
| Cade Cunningham | Over 26.5 points | 66% | 33 | Hit |
| Cooper Flagg | Over 24.5 points | 65% | 18 | Miss |
| Jamal Murray | Over 25.5 points | 66% | 23 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+157) missed; the props parlay (+648) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+422) missed.
NHL: 3-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA at CAR | CAR | 68% | -395 | Hit |
| WPG at CHI | WPG | 59% | -162 | Hit |
| DET at TBL | TBL | 66% | -225 | Miss |
| SJS at UTA | UTA | 62% | -185 | Miss |
| CGY at LAK | LAK | 60% | -175 | Miss |
| EDM at TOR | EDM | 58% | -155 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 86% | 4 | Hit |
| Cutter Gauthier | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 86% | 3 | Hit |
| Leon Draisaitl | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 84% | 4 | Hit |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 82% | 3 | Hit |
| Brandon Hagel | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 72% | 4 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1066) missed; the props parlay (+172) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+345) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 19 since Oct 1 | 38-17 | -1.37 u | -2.5% | 35-21 (62%) | 1-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 25 since Oct 20 | 102-29 | +5.87 u | +4.5% | 60-63 (49%) | 7-18 |
| NHL | 46 since Sep 30 | 122-64 | +2.78 u | +1.5% | 149-72 (67%) | 7-39 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.