Best Bets for Saturday, November 14: MIN 85%, DEN 82% and 7 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
9 picks to win on the Model Cards for Saturday, November 14, across the NBA and NHL, plus 10 props. The firmest call is Minnesota Timberwolves at 85% (-930). Yesterday's cards: NBA 4-3, NHL 1-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at MIN | Lock | MIN | 85% | -930 | 87% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +6.2, venue +3.0 |
| DEN at NO | Lock | DEN | 82% | -597 | 82% | 0 | NBA | injuries (NO without Murphy, Murray, Watford; McGowens doubtful; DEN without Strawther) +8.0, head to head +7.0 |
| SEA at CAR | Lock | CAR | 68% | -395 | 77% | -9 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +13.0, goal margin +6.7 |
| DET at TBL | Lock | TBL | 66% | -225 | 66% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +5.2, expected goals (5v5) +5.0 |
| SJS at UTA | Play | UTA | 64% | -205 | 64% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +11.8, expected goals +5.0 |
| DET at MIA | Play | DET | 62% | -191 | 63% | -1 | NBA | pace +5.6, net rating +5.0 |
| BKN at MEM | Play | MEM | 61% | -167 | 60% | +1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.7, net rating +4.9 |
| CGY at LAK | Play | LAK | 60% | -175 | 61% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +3.9, expected goals +3.3 |
| WPG at CHI | Play | WPG | 59% | -162 | 59% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +6.8, goal margin +6.1 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Minnesota Timberwolves over Chicago Bulls, 85%, -930. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+6.2 points), venue (+3.0 points), net rating (+2.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (-6.4 points). The line MIN -15.5, total 235.5. CHI out: Caleb Wilson. CHI is on the second of a back to back. MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo.
Denver Nuggets over New Orleans Pelicans, 82%, -597. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (NO without Murphy, Murray, Watford; McGowens doubtful; DEN without Strawther) (+8.0 points), head to head (+7.0 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 10 games in) (-6.3 points). The line DEN -12.5, total 235.5. DEN out: Julian Strawther. NO out: Dejounte Murray, Trendon Watford, Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi. NO is on the second of a back to back.
Carolina Hurricanes over Seattle Kraken, 68%, -395. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+13.0 points), goal margin (+6.7 points), expected goals (+6.4 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The market is 9 points firmer on it than we are; we still have CAR as the more likely winner. The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. SEA starter: Joey Daccord (likely). SEA out: Curtis Douglas, Jake O'Brien, Jacob Melanson, Jared McCann. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (likely). Crew: Jake Brenk has been tough on SEA (1-7-1 in 9 games with this referee, a win rate 23 points below its norm under others).
Tampa Bay Lightning over Detroit Red Wings, 66%, -225. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+5.2 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.0 points), venue (+3.3 points). The case against is recent form (-1.8 points). The line TBL -1.5, total 6.5. DET starter: Daniil Tarasov (likely). DET out: Dylan Larkin, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (likely).
Utah Mammoth over San Jose Sharks, 64%, -205. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.8 points), expected goals (+5.0 points), goal margin (+3.7 points). The case against is rest (-2.0 points). The line UTA -1.5, total 6.5. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected). UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Logan Cooley, John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux, Nate Schmidt, Dylan Guenther.
Detroit Pistons over Miami Heat, 62%, -191. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: pace (+5.6 points), net rating (+5.0 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (-10.7 points). The line DET -4.5, total 228.5. DET out: Isaiah Joe, Jalen Duren. MIA is on the second of a back to back.
Memphis Grizzlies over Brooklyn Nets, 61%, -167. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.7 points), net rating (+4.9 points), defense (+1.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (-7.8 points). The line MEM -3.5, total 228.5. MEM out: Richie Saunders, Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM is on the second of a back to back.
Los Angeles Kings over Calgary Flames, 60%, -175. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+3.9 points), expected goals (+3.3 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 17 and 19 games in) (+2.5 points). The case against is rest (-2.1 points). The line LAK -1.5, total 5.5. CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Connor Zary, Kevin Bahl, Jonathan Huberdeau. LAK starter: Anton Forsberg (projected).
Winnipeg Jets over Chicago Blackhawks, 59%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.8 points), goal margin (+6.1 points), venue (+4.0 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 19 and 20 games in) (-2.4 points). The line WPG -1.5, total 6.5. WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (projected). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Dylan DeMelo, Elias Salomonsson, Isak Rosen. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (projected). CHI out: Bowen Byram.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | Lock | WPG | WPG at CHI | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.3 | 86% | NHL |
| Cutter Gauthier | Lock | ANA | NYI at ANA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.3 | 86% | NHL |
| Leon Draisaitl | Lock | EDM | EDM at TOR | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.1 | 84% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | EDM at TOR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.3 | 82% | NHL |
| Brandon Hagel | Play | TBL | DET at TBL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 72% | NHL |
| Nikola Jokic | Play | DEN | DEN at NO | Over 22.5 points | 26.9 | 70% | NBA |
| Cooper Flagg | Play | DAL | DAL at CLE | Over 22.5 points | 26.9 | 70% | NBA |
| Cade Cunningham | Lean | DET | DET at MIA | Over 25.5 points | 29.8 | 67% | NBA |
| LaMelo Ball | Lean | MIN | CHI at MIN | Over 28.5 points | 32.9 | 66% | NBA |
| Jamal Murray | Lean | DEN | DEN at NO | Over 25.5 points | 29.4 | 66% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | MIN; DEN; DET; MEM | +215 | 27% | +274 |
| NBA | Props | Nikola Jokic over 22.5 points; Cooper Flagg over 22.5 points; Cade Cunningham over 25.5 points; LaMelo Ball over 28.5 points; Jamal Murray over 25.5 points | +603 (fair) | 14% | +603 |
| NBA | Best of both | MIN; DEN; DET; Nikola Jokic over 22.5 points; Cooper Flagg over 22.5 points; Cade Cunningham over 25.5 points | +497 | 14% | +596 |
| NHL | Games | CAR; TBL; UTA; LAK; WPG | +584 | 10% | +881 |
| NHL | Props | Kyle Connor over 2.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Brandon Hagel over 2.5 shots on goal | +172 (fair) | 37% | +172 |
| NHL | Best of both | CAR; TBL; UTA; Kyle Connor over 2.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal | +330 | 18% | +457 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at CLE | NBA | CLE | 53% | 49% | +4 |
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA at CAR | NHL | CAR | 68% | 77% | -9 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN at NO | NBA | NO without Murphy, Murray, Watford; McGowens doubtful; DEN without Strawther | 8.0 pts toward DEN |
| DAL at CLE | NBA | CLE without Merrill, Tomlin; Mobley day-to-day; DAL without Lively; Johnson, Christie day-to-day | 3.0 pts against CLE |
| SJS at UTA | NHL | UTA without Guenther, Schmidt, Marino; Schmaltz, Cooley GTD; SJS without Chernyshov | 2.0 pts against UTA |
| BKN at MEM | NBA | MEM without Pippen; Edey, Post day-to-day; BKN: Traore day-to-day | 1.1 pts against MEM |
| EDM at TOR | NHL | TOR without Marchenko, Sissons, Blankenburg; Rielly, Tanev GTD; EDM without Savoie | 0.9 pts toward EDM |
| DET at MIA | NBA | MIA without Larsson; Thompson questionable; DET without Duren, Joe | 0.8 pts toward DET |
| COL at MTL | NHL | MTL without Demidov, Kreider; Matheson GTD; COL without Manson, L'Heureux; MacKinnon, Makar GTD | 0.7 pts toward MTL |
| NJD at WSH | NHL | WSH without Sandin, Desharnais; NJD without Mantha, Casey, Kovacevic; Pesce GTD | 0.7 pts against NJD |
| BUF at DAL | NHL | DAL without Duchene, Bichsel, Bäck; Heiskanen GTD; BUF without Grzelcyk, Danforth; Helenius GTD | 0.7 pts against DAL |
| DET at TBL | NHL | TBL without Point; Cirelli, Gourde GTD; DET without Larkin, Edvinsson, Johansson | 0.7 pts against TBL |
| MIN at BOS | NHL | BOS without Hagens | 0.6 pts toward MIN |
| FLA at STL | NHL | STL without Tucker; FLA without Marchand, Barkov | 0.6 pts against FLA |
| SEA at CAR | NHL | SEA without McCann | 0.4 pts toward CAR |
| PHI at CBJ | NHL | CBJ without Garland, Lundeström; Monahan GTD | 0.4 pts against CBJ |
| CGY at LAK | NHL | LAK: Gustafsson GTD; CGY without Bahl, Huberdeau, Zary | 0.4 pts toward LAK |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | NBA | second of a back to back | CHI at MIN | MIN 85% (our pick is the other side) |
| DEN | NBA | road game 4 | DEN at NO | DEN 82% (our pick) |
| NO | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | DEN at NO | DEN 82% (our pick is the other side) |
| MIA | NBA | second of a back to back | DET at MIA | DET 62% (our pick is the other side) |
| CLE | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | DAL at CLE | CLE 53% (our pick) |
| BKN | NBA | road game 4 | BKN at MEM | MEM 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| MEM | NBA | second of a back to back | BKN at MEM | MEM 61% (our pick) |
| SEA | NHL | 3.8K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | SEA at CAR | CAR 68% (our pick is the other side) |
| CAR | NHL | 3.8K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | SEA at CAR | CAR 68% (our pick) |
| EDM | NHL | 2.7K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | EDM at TOR | EDM 57% (our pick) |
| TOR | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | EDM at TOR | EDM 57% (our pick is the other side) |
| NJD | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | NJD at WSH | NJD 52% (our pick) |
| DET | NHL | road game 4 | DET at TBL | TBL 66% (our pick is the other side) |
| TBL | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | DET at TBL | TBL 66% (our pick) |
| FLA | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | FLA at STL | FLA 51% (our pick) |
| PIT | NHL | 3.6K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | OTT at PIT | OTT 54% (our pick is the other side) |
| PHI | NHL | 2.7K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed, road game 5 | PHI at CBJ | CBJ 55% (our pick is the other side) |
The NFL card for Sunday, November 15 is already posted: JAX 83% (-700), LAR 80% (-500), BUF 77% (-425), SEA 72% (-305), SF 69% (-218), KC 68% (-175), HOU 68% (-238).
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 13)
NBA: 4-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at ORL | ORL | 76% | -395 | Hit |
| NY at IND | NY | 72% | -337 | Miss |
| ATL at CHI | ATL | 71% | -277 | Miss |
| UTAH at HOU | HOU | 88% | -1180 | Hit |
| GS at SA | SA | 83% | -670 | Hit |
| POR at SAC | POR | 77% | -468 | Hit |
| OKC at LAC | OKC | 71% | -283 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | Over 24.5 points | 69% | 35 | Hit |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Over 26.5 points | 67% | 37 | Hit |
| Jalen Johnson | Over 20.5 points | 66% | 27 | Hit |
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 33.5 points | 67% | 12 | Miss |
| Alperen Sengun | Over 19.5 points | 65% | 43 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+353) missed; the props parlay (+649) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+391) missed.
NHL: 1-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR at VAN | NYR | 66% | -225 | Hit |
| NSH at VGK | VGK | 60% | -162 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 79% | 3 | Hit |
| Steven Stamkos | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 89% | 2 | Hit |
| Brock Boeser | Over 0.5 shots on goal | 99% | 1 | Hit |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 70% | 4 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+134) missed; the props parlay (+104) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+233) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 19 since Oct 1 | 38-17 | -1.37 u | -2.5% | 35-21 (62%) | 1-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 24 since Oct 20 | 101-26 | +8.71 u | +6.9% | 58-60 (49%) | 7-17 |
| NHL | 45 since Sep 30 | 119-61 | +4.27 u | +2.4% | 144-72 (67%) | 7-38 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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