Best Bets for Friday, November 6: SA 87%, BOS 72% and 8 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
10 picks to win on the Model Cards for Friday, November 6, across the NBA and NHL, plus 10 props. The firmest call is San Antonio Spurs at 87% (-1180). Yesterday's cards: NFL 1-0, NBA 2-0 with the parlay hitting, NHL 4-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA at SAC | Lock | SA | 87% | -1180 | 89% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +4.8, head to head +2.9 |
| BOS at CHA | Lock | BOS | 72% | -324 | 73% | -2 | NBA | head to head +7.4, venue +7.2 |
| WSH at ATL | Lock | ATL | 71% | -297 | 72% | -1 | NBA | head to head +6.2, defense +3.0 |
| UTAH at DAL | Lock | DAL | 69% | -264 | 70% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +4.0, head to head +2.8 |
| SJS at MIN | Lock | MIN | 68% | -270 | 70% | -2 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.7, goal margin +6.6 |
| TOR at MIL | Lock | TOR | 67% | -249 | 69% | -2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.4, defense +2.8 |
| OKC at MEM | Play | OKC | 62% | -170 | 60% | +2 | NBA | head to head +12.7, preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 8 games in) +9.3 |
| POR at LAL | Play | LAL | 61% | -154 | 58% | +3 | NBA | injuries (LAL: Mamukelashvili day-to-day; POR without Morant, Sharpe, Krejci) +7.4, star availability +5.2 |
| CBJ at BUF | Play | BUF | 60% | -170 | 60% | 0 | NHL | back to back +7.1, rest +6.3 |
| ANA at CGY | Lean | CGY | 54% | -148 | 57% | -3 | NHL | back to back +7.3, rest +6.4 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
San Antonio Spurs over Sacramento Kings, 87%, -1180. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+4.8 points), head to head (+2.9 points), venue (+2.6 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.5 points). The line SA -16.5, total 229.5. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud.
Boston Celtics over Charlotte Hornets, 72%, -324. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.4 points), venue (+7.2 points), net rating, last 10 (+6.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 8 games in) (-9.7 points). The line BOS -8.5, total 207.5. BOS out: Devin Carter. CHA out: Grant Williams, Kon Knueppel.
Atlanta Hawks over Washington Wizards, 71%, -297. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+6.2 points), defense (+3.0 points), net rating (+2.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 8 games in) (-4.9 points). The line ATL -7.5, total 228.5. WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic. ATL out: Asa Newell, Henri Veesaar, Jock Landale, Keshon Gilbert, Mouhamed Gueye.
Dallas Mavericks over Utah Jazz, 69%, -264. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+4.0 points), head to head (+2.8 points), defense (+2.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 8 games in) (-13.1 points). The line DAL -6.5, total 224.5. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, Trey Alexander. DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic.
Minnesota Wild over San Jose Sharks, 68%, -270. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.7 points), goal margin (+6.6 points), expected goals (+6.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 17 and 17 games in) (-2.2 points). The line MIN -1.5, total 6.5. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected). MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno.
Toronto Raptors over Milwaukee Bucks, 67%, -249. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.4 points), defense (+2.8 points), streak (+2.2 points). The case against is venue (-6.7 points). The line TOR -6.5, total 231.5. TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle.
Oklahoma City Thunder over Memphis Grizzlies, 62%, -170. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+12.7 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 8 games in) (+9.3 points), defense (+3.6 points). The case against is injuries (MEM without Stewart, Pippen; OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Wallace) (-5.0 points). The line OKC -3.5, total 223.5. OKC out: Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Nikola Topic. MEM out: Isaiah Stewart, Scotty Pippen Jr.
Los Angeles Lakers over Portland Trail Blazers, 61%, -154. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (LAL: Mamukelashvili day-to-day; POR without Morant, Sharpe, Krejci) (+7.4 points), star availability (+5.2 points), venue (+4.8 points). The case against is head to head (-2.1 points). We like this side 3 points more than the price does. The line LAL -3.5, total 231.5. POR out: Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe, Vit Krejci.
Buffalo Sabres over Columbus Blue Jackets, 60%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.1 points), rest (+6.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+1.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 15 and 14 games in) (-2.0 points). The line BUF -1.5, total 6.5. CBJ starter: Jet Greaves (projected). CBJ is on the second of a back to back. BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (likely). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Konsta Helenius, Jack Rathbone, Matt Grzelcyk, Justin Danforth.
Calgary Flames over Anaheim Ducks, 54%, -148. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.3 points), rest (+6.4 points), penalty kill (+1.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 16 and 16 games in) (-4.0 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have CGY as the more likely winner. The line CGY -1.5, total 6.5. ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, A.J. Greer, Troy Terry. ANA is on the second of a back to back. CGY starter: Dustin Wolf. CGY out: Connor Zary, Brennan Othmann, Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier | Lock | ANA | ANA at CGY | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.3 | 86% | NHL |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Lock | MIN | SJS at MIN | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.6 | 86% | NHL |
| Tage Thompson | Lock | BUF | CBJ at BUF | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.8 | 80% | NHL |
| Quinn Hughes | Lock | MIN | SJS at MIN | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.3 | 80% | NHL |
| Leo Carlsson | Play | ANA | ANA at CGY | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.2 | 78% | NHL |
| Jalen Johnson | Play | ATL | WSH at ATL | Over 19.5 points | 23.4 | 70% | NBA |
| Cooper Flagg | Lean | DAL | UTAH at DAL | Over 24.5 points | 29.2 | 70% | NBA |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | POR at LAL | Over 32.5 points | 38.1 | 68% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | SA at SAC | Over 32.5 points | 37.8 | 67% | NBA |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Lean | OKC | OKC at MEM | Over 32.5 points | 37.8 | 67% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | SA; BOS; ATL; DAL; TOR; OKC; LAL | +861 | 8% | +1187 |
| NBA | Props | Jalen Johnson over 19.5 points; Cooper Flagg over 24.5 points; Luka Doncic over 32.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 32.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points | +577 (fair) | 15% | +577 |
| NBA | Best of both | SA; BOS; ATL; Jalen Johnson over 19.5 points; Cooper Flagg over 24.5 points; Luka Doncic over 32.5 points | +472 | 15% | +579 |
| NHL | Games | MIN; BUF; CGY | +265 | 22% | +352 |
| NHL | Props | Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 shots on goal; Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal; Quinn Hughes over 1.5 shots on goal; Leo Carlsson over 1.5 shots on goal | +168 (fair) | 37% | +168 |
| NHL | Best of both | MIN; BUF; CGY; Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 shots on goal; Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal | +510 | 13% | +656 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR at LAL | NBA | LAL | 61% | 58% | +3 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| POR at LAL | NBA | LAL: Mamukelashvili day-to-day; POR without Morant, Sharpe, Krejci | 7.4 pts toward LAL |
| TOR at MIL | NBA | MIL without Jones; TOR without Leonard; Barnes questionable, Anderson day-to-day | 6.3 pts against TOR |
| OKC at MEM | NBA | MEM without Stewart, Pippen; OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Wallace | 5.0 pts against OKC |
| MIN at NO | NBA | NO without Missi; Murphy day-to-day; MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; Shannon day-to-day | 4.7 pts against MIN |
| BOS at CHA | NBA | CHA without Knueppel, Williams; Schroder, Diabate day-to-day; BOS without Carter | 4.6 pts toward BOS |
| PHI at CLE | NBA | CLE without Tyson; Allen, Watson day-to-day; PHI without Barlow, Hukporti; Bona day-to-day | 3.2 pts toward PHI |
| UTAH at DAL | NBA | DAL without Aldama, Lively; Christie day-to-day; UTAH without Jackson, Nurkic, Alexander | 2.0 pts toward DAL |
| SA at SAC | NBA | SAC without Murray, Raynaud; SA without Harris | 1.7 pts toward SA |
| WSH at ATL | NBA | ATL without Landale, Newell, Gueye; Johnson questionable; WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic; Davis day-to-day | 1.3 pts against ATL |
| ANA at CGY | NHL | CGY without Huberdeau, Zary, Honzek; ANA without Greer, Terry, Poehling | 0.6 pts toward CGY |
| SJS at MIN | NHL | MIN without Spurgeon, Faber, Foligno; Ek GTD; SJS without Wennberg, Chernyshov | 0.4 pts against MIN |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | MIN at NO | MIN 61% (our pick) |
| TOR | NBA | 4 games in 7 days, road game 4 | TOR at MIL | TOR 66% (our pick) |
| SA | NBA | 2.3K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | SA at SAC | SA 87% (our pick) |
| BOS | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | BOS at CHA | BOS 72% (our pick) |
| CHA | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | BOS at CHA | BOS 72% (our pick is the other side) |
| PHI | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | PHI at CLE | PHI 55% (our pick) |
| POR | NBA | road game 4 | POR at LAL | LAL 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| LAL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | POR at LAL | LAL 61% (our pick) |
| SJS | NHL | 2.5K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | SJS at MIN | MIN 68% (our pick is the other side) |
| CBJ | NHL | second of a back to back | CBJ at BUF | BUF 60% (our pick is the other side) |
| ANA | NHL | second of a back to back | ANA at CGY | CGY 56% (our pick is the other side) |
| CGY | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | ANA at CGY | CGY 56% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 5)
NFL: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX at BAL | JAX | 79% | -500 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | Over 193.5 passing yards | 65% | 242 | Hit |
| Zay Flowers | Over 3.5 receptions | 75% | 3 | Miss |
Tickets: the props parlay (+105) missed.
NBA: 2-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at GS | GS | 64% | -265 | Hit |
| ORL at PHX | PHX | 52% | -114 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Over 31.5 points | 69% | 29 | Miss |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Over 23.5 points | 66% | 20 | Miss |
| Franz Wagner | Over 21.5 points | 70% | 15 | Miss |
| Miles Bridges | Over 17.5 points | 71% | 18 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+159) hit; the props parlay (+344) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+659) missed.
NHL: 4-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at TBL | TBL | 68% | -455 | Hit |
| NSH at COL | COL | 66% | -218 | Miss |
| VAN at WPG | WPG | 65% | -218 | Hit |
| STL at NJD | NJD | 65% | -218 | Hit |
| CAR at NYI | CAR | 63% | -198 | Hit |
| ANA at EDM | EDM | 62% | -192 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 70% | 3 | Miss |
| Jack Hughes | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 78% | 6 | Hit |
| Leo Carlsson | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 82% | 2 | Hit |
| Jason Robertson | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 3 | Hit |
| Filip Forsberg | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 82% | 3 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+767) missed; the props parlay (+192) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+316) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 16 since Oct 1 | 30-16 | -3.39 u | -7.4% | 31-16 (66%) | 0-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 16 since Oct 20 | 60-19 | +2.19 u | +2.8% | 40-38 (51%) | 4-12 |
| NHL | 37 since Sep 30 | 98-52 | +1.82 u | +1.2% | 114-64 (64%) | 6-31 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.