Best Bets for Saturday, October 31: SA 80%, MEM 74% and 8 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
10 picks to win on the Model Cards for Saturday, October 31, across the NBA and NHL, plus 10 props. The firmest call is San Antonio Spurs at 80% (-600). Yesterday's cards: NBA 5-2, NHL 1-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at SA | Lock | SA | 80% | -600 | 82% | -2 | NBA | injuries (SA without Harris; MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo) +5.2, preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 6 games in) +4.5 |
| SAC at MEM | Lock | MEM | 74% | -360 | 75% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +3.0, injuries (MEM: Pippen questionable, Jerome, Post day-to-day; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell) +2.8 |
| CLE at MIL | Lock | CLE | 72% | -380 | 76% | -4 | NBA | head to head +6.8, preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 5 games in) +2.7 |
| CGY at COL | Lock | COL | 68% | -425 | 78% | -10 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.2, back to back +6.4 |
| POR at UTAH | Lock | POR | 68% | -340 | 74% | -7 | NBA | head to head +6.5, venue +5.4 |
| CHI at BOS | Lock | BOS | 67% | -238 | 68% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +8.3, goal margin +7.7 |
| TOR at VAN | Play | TOR | 62% | -192 | 63% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +6.3, expected goals (5v5) +5.9 |
| CBJ at DAL | Play | DAL | 62% | -192 | 63% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +3.7, expected goals +3.7 |
| ATL at NO | Play | ATL | 62% | -180 | 62% | 0 | NBA | head to head +7.0, venue +5.1 |
| TBL at NSH | Play | TBL | 60% | -170 | 60% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.7, expected goals +4.3 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
San Antonio Spurs over Minnesota Timberwolves, 80%, -600. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (SA without Harris; MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo) (+5.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 6 games in) (+4.5 points), head to head (+2.6 points). The case against is venue (-4.1 points). The line SA -12.5, total 227.5. MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo. MIN is on the second of a back to back. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.
Memphis Grizzlies over Sacramento Kings, 74%, -360. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+3.0 points), injuries (MEM: Pippen questionable, Jerome, Post day-to-day; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell) (+2.8 points), head to head (+2.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 5 games in) (-7.9 points). The line MEM -8.5, total 230.5. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Dylan Cardwell, Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud.
Cleveland Cavaliers over Milwaukee Bucks, 72%, -380. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+6.8 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 5 games in) (+2.7 points), home/road split (+2.2 points). The case against is venue (-6.3 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have CLE as the more likely winner. The line CLE -9.5, total 235.5. CLE out: Jaylon Tyson.
Colorado Avalanche over Calgary Flames, 68%, -425. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.2 points), back to back (+6.4 points), goal margin (+5.7 points). The case against is power play (-1.3 points). The market is 10 points firmer on it than we are; we still have COL as the more likely winner. The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (projected). CGY out: Devin Cooley, Connor Zary, Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek. CGY is on the second of a back to back. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux.
Portland Trail Blazers over Utah Jazz, 68%, -340. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+6.5 points), venue (+5.4 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 4 games in) (-15.1 points). The market is 7 points firmer on it than we are; we still have POR as the more likely winner. The line POR -8.5, total 232.5. POR out: Chris Youngblood, Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, Trey Alexander.
Boston Bruins over Chicago Blackhawks, 67%, -238. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.3 points), goal margin (+7.7 points), expected goals (+3.5 points). The case against is shot margin (-1.9 points). The line BOS -1.5, total 6.5. CHI starter: Arvid Soderblom. CHI out: Bowen Byram. BOS starter: Michael DiPietro.
Toronto Maple Leafs over Vancouver Canucks, 62%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+6.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.9 points), expected goals (+4.2 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The line TOR -1.5, total 6.5. TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz. TOR out: John Tavares, Max Domi, Marshall Rifai, Nick Blankenburg, Kirill Marchenko. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern.
Dallas Stars over Columbus Blue Jackets, 62%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+3.7 points), expected goals (+3.7 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.9 points). The case against is head to head (-1.2 points). The line DAL -1.5, total 5.5. CBJ starter: Jet Greaves (projected). DAL starter: Jake Oettinger. DAL out: Matt Duchene, Radek Faksa, Esa Lindell, Kyle Capobianco, Luke Krys.
Atlanta Hawks over New Orleans Pelicans, 62%, -180. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.0 points), venue (+5.1 points), injuries (NO without Poole, Missi; ATL without Gueye) (+2.6 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-2.5 points). The line ATL -4.5, total 240.5. ATL out: Henri Veesaar, Mouhamed Gueye. NO out: Jordan Poole, Yves Missi.
Tampa Bay Lightning over Nashville Predators, 60%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.7 points), expected goals (+4.3 points), goal margin (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 12 games in) (-3.1 points). The line TBL -1.5, total 6.5. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected). NSH starter: Justus Annunen (projected).
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Arvidsson | Lock | DET | STL at DET | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 92% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | EDM at NYI | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.9 | 91% | NHL |
| Tage Thompson | Play | BUF | BUF at LAK | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.6 | 76% | NHL |
| Domantas Sabonis | Play | SAC | SAC at MEM | Over 18.5 points | 22.3 | 71% | NBA |
| Donovan Mitchell | Lean | CLE | CLE at MIL | Over 25.5 points | 30.4 | 70% | NBA |
| Leon Draisaitl | Lean | EDM | EDM at NYI | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.3 | 69% | NHL |
| Jalen Johnson | Lean | ATL | ATL at NO | Over 19.5 points | 23.1 | 69% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | MIN at SA | Over 24.5 points | 28.9 | 68% | NBA |
| Deni Avdija | Lean | POR | POR at UTAH | Over 25.5 points | 29.4 | 66% | NBA |
| Auston Matthews | Lean | TOR | TOR at VAN | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 65% | NHL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | SA; MEM; CLE; POR; ATL | +279 | 18% | +467 |
| NBA | Props | Domantas Sabonis over 18.5 points; Donovan Mitchell over 25.5 points; Jalen Johnson over 19.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 24.5 points; Deni Avdija over 25.5 points | +554 (fair) | 15% | +554 |
| NBA | Best of both | SA; MEM; CLE; Domantas Sabonis over 18.5 points; Donovan Mitchell over 25.5 points; Jalen Johnson over 19.5 points | +453 | 14% | +593 |
| NHL | Games | COL; BOS; TOR; DAL; TBL | +544 | 11% | +848 |
| NHL | Props | Viktor Arvidsson over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal; Auston Matthews over 2.5 shots on goal | +248 (fair) | 29% | +248 |
| NHL | Best of both | COL; BOS; TOR; Viktor Arvidsson over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal | +320 | 18% | +459 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY at COL | NHL | COL | 68% | 78% | -10 |
| POR at UTAH | NBA | POR | 68% | 74% | -7 |
| CLE at MIL | NBA | CLE | 72% | 76% | -4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKC at HOU | NBA | HOU without Adams; Sengun, Sheppard day-to-day; OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Wallace | 6.3 pts toward HOU |
| PHI at CHA | NBA | CHA without Knueppel, White, Williams; PHI without Brown, Barlow, Walker; Embiid, James day-to-day | 6.2 pts against PHI |
| MIN at SA | NBA | SA without Harris; MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo | 5.2 pts toward SA |
| SAC at MEM | NBA | MEM: Pippen questionable, Jerome, Post day-to-day; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell | 2.8 pts toward MEM |
| OTT at SJS | NHL | Goalies (OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt | 2.7 pts against OTT |
| ATL at NO | NBA | NO without Poole, Missi; ATL without Gueye | 2.6 pts toward ATL |
| CLE at MIL | NBA | CLE without Tyson | 2.3 pts against CLE |
| STL at DET | NHL | DET without Larkin, Kasper, Edvinsson; STL without Mailloux; Parayko GTD | 1.1 pts toward STL |
| TOR at VAN | NHL | VAN without Chytil; TOR without Marchenko, Tavares, Rifai; Joshua GTD | 1.0 pts against TOR |
| CGY at COL | NHL | Goalies (CGY: Wolf in for Cooley, hurt | 0.9 pts toward COL |
| OTT at SJS | NHL | SJS without Wennberg, Chernyshov; OTT without Eklund, Foegele; Burakovsky GTD | 0.5 pts toward OTT |
| PIT at MTL | NHL | MTL without Suzuki, Demidov; Matheson GTD; PIT without Rust, Soderblom, Riemsdyk | 0.5 pts against MTL |
| CBJ at DAL | NHL | DAL without Lindell, Duchene, Bäck; CBJ without Provorov | 0.5 pts against DAL |
| BUF at LAK | NHL | LAK without Zuccarello, Fiala, Turcotte; BUF without Grzelcyk, Danforth, Timmins; Kulich, Helenius GTD | 0.5 pts toward BUF |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | OKC at HOU | HOU 54% (our pick) |
| MIN | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | MIN at SA | SA 80% (our pick is the other side) |
| ATL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | ATL at NO | ATL 62% (our pick) |
| CLE | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CLE at MIL | CLE 72% (our pick) |
| PHI | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | PHI at CHA | PHI 51% (our pick) |
| CHA | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | PHI at CHA | PHI 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| MEM | NBA | 3.0K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | SAC at MEM | MEM 74% (our pick) |
| TOR | NHL | road game 4 | TOR at VAN | TOR 62% (our pick) |
| EDM | NHL | 3.3K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | EDM at NYI | EDM 51% (our pick) |
| NSH | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | TBL at NSH | TBL 60% (our pick is the other side) |
| MTL | NHL | 2.4K km since the last game | PIT at MTL | MTL 54% (our pick) |
| CGY | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | CGY at COL | COL 68% (our pick is the other side) |
| BUF | NHL | road game 4 | BUF at LAK | BUF 54% (our pick) |
| LAK | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | BUF at LAK | BUF 54% (our pick is the other side) |
The NFL card for Sunday, November 1 is already posted: CIN 81% (-675), JAX 77% (-500), NE 72% (-325), LAR 69% (-278), WSH 69% (-250), DAL 63% (-310), BUF 60% (-166).
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 30)
NBA: 5-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at BOS | BOS | 84% | -850 | Hit |
| IND at MIA | MIA | 72% | -340 | Hit |
| DET at BKN | DET | 72% | -310 | Hit |
| LAC at MIN | MIN | 70% | -265 | Hit |
| ORL at TOR | TOR | 65% | -218 | Miss |
| HOU at DAL | HOU | 65% | -198 | Miss |
| DEN at PHX | DEN | 59% | -175 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | Over 22.5 points | 70% | 20 | Miss |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Over 25.5 points | 67% | 31 | Hit |
| Jayson Tatum | Over 21.5 points | 70% | 26 | Hit |
| Luka Doncic | Over 29.5 points | 68% | 37 | Hit |
| Nikola Jokic | Over 22.5 points | 69% | 18 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+809) missed; the props parlay (+556) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+468) missed.
NHL: 1-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD at VGK | VGK | 52% | -115 | Miss |
| WPG at FLA | FLA | 66% | -218 | Hit |
| SEA at CGY | SEA | 51% | -115 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | 7 | Hit |
| Nico Hischier | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 1 | Miss |
| Brady Tkachuk | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 76% | 6 | Hit |
| Matthew Tkachuk | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 85% | 2 | Hit |
| Joel Farabee | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 70% | 1 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+410) missed; the props parlay (+156) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+605) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 13 since Oct 1 | 23-14 | -3.52 u | -9.5% | 25-13 (66%) | 0-4 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 11 since Oct 20 | 41-13 | +2.08 u | +3.9% | 27-27 (50%) | 3-8 |
| NHL | 31 since Sep 30 | 81-40 | +5.72 u | +4.7% | 96-52 (65%) | 6-25 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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