Best Bets for Wednesday, October 28: SA 82%, CLE 77% and 10 More Picks Across the MLB, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
12 picks to win on the Model Cards for Wednesday, October 28, across the MLB, NBA and NHL, plus 12 props. The firmest call is San Antonio Spurs at 82% (-650). Yesterday's cards: MLB 0-1, NBA 3-1, NHL 3-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA at UTAH | Lock | SA | 82% | -650 | 83% | -1 | NBA | injuries (UTAH without Jackson, Nurkic, Alexander; Markkanen questionable; SA without Harris) +6.3, net rating, last 10 +5.1 |
| WSH at CLE | Lock | CLE | 77% | -395 | 77% | 0 | NBA | head to head +9.4, venue +6.4 |
| CHA at DET | Lock | DET | 71% | -290 | 71% | 0 | NBA | head to head +7.2, preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 4 games in) +4.9 |
| NY at CHI | Lock | NY | 70% | -270 | 70% | 0 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +8.8, head to head +4.2 |
| HOU at MIL | Lock | HOU | 69% | -345 | 74% | -5 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +5.8, head to head +3.9 |
| OKC at DAL | Lock | OKC | 66% | -230 | 67% | -1 | NBA | head to head +4.1, net rating, last 10 +3.6 |
| PHI at WSH | Lock | WSH | 66% | -230 | 67% | -1 | NHL | back to back +6.6, rest +5.9 |
| LAL at LAC | Lock | LAL | 65% | -198 | 64% | +2 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 4 games in) +14.9, injuries (LAC without Ingram, Hachimura, Strus; LAL without Thiero) +10.9 |
| CGY at EDM | Play | EDM | 63% | -192 | 63% | 0 | NHL | goal margin +5.8, preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) +4.2 |
| NJD at COL | Play | COL | 58% | -148 | 57% | +1 | NHL | back to back +7.2, rest +6.4 |
| MIL at TB | Lean | MIL | 56% | -157 | 58% | -2 | MLB | starting pitchers +3.3, streak +2.6 |
| TOR at SEA | Lean | TOR | 54% | -135 | 55% | -1 | NHL | venue +3.3, expected goals (5v5) +2.8 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on MIL at TB: it makes the game 7.8 runs against a posted 6.5.
Why each pick
San Antonio Spurs over Utah Jazz, 82%, -650. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (UTAH without Jackson, Nurkic, Alexander; Markkanen questionable; SA without Harris) (+6.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.1 points), venue (+3.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 4 games in) (-6.2 points). The line SA -13.5, total 233.5. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris. SA is on the second of a back to back. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, Trey Alexander.
Cleveland Cavaliers over Washington Wizards, 77%, -395. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+9.4 points), venue (+6.4 points), injuries (WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic) (+2.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 4 games in) (-9.5 points). The line CLE -10.5, total 239.5. WSH out: AJ Dybantsa, Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic.
Detroit Pistons over Charlotte Hornets, 71%, -290. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 4 games in) (+4.9 points), star availability (+2.9 points). The case against is venue (-7.3 points). The line DET -7.5, total 215.5. CHA out: Coby White, Grant Williams, Kon Knueppel, Kylan Boswell. DET out: Jalen Duren. DET is on the second of a back to back.
New York Knicks over Chicago Bulls, 70%, -270. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+8.8 points), head to head (+4.2 points), pace (+2.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 4 games in) (-7.2 points). The line NY -6.5, total 231.5. NY is on the second of a back to back. CHI out: Nic Claxton.
Houston Rockets over Milwaukee Bucks, 69%, -345. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.8 points), head to head (+3.9 points), defense (+2.6 points). The case against is venue (-6.7 points). The market is 5 points firmer on it than we are; we still have HOU as the more likely winner. The line HOU -8.5, total 225.5. HOU out: Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams.
Oklahoma City Thunder over Dallas Mavericks, 66%, -230. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+4.1 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.6 points), defense (+3.0 points). The case against is injuries (DAL without Aldama, Lively, Martin; Marshall day-to-day; OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Mitchell) (-9.1 points). The line OKC -6.5, total 228.5. OKC out: Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Nikola Topic. DAL out: Caleb Martin, Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic.
Washington Capitals over Philadelphia Flyers, 66%, -230. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+6.6 points), rest (+5.9 points), goal margin (+5.0 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 14 games in) (-3.4 points). The line WSH -1.5, total 6.5. PHI starter: Joseph Woll (projected). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny. PHI is on the second of a back to back. WSH starter: Logan Thompson (projected). WSH out: Logan Thompson, Rasmus Sandin, Vincent Desharnais.
Los Angeles Lakers over LA Clippers, 65%, -198. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 4 games in) (+14.9 points), injuries (LAC without Ingram, Hachimura, Strus; LAL without Thiero) (+10.9 points), star availability (+6.2 points). The case against is venue (-4.4 points). The line LAL -4.5, total 229.5. LAL out: Adou Thiero, Cameron Carr. LAL is on the second of a back to back. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Jordan Miller, Max Strus, Rui Hachimura, Yanic Konan Niederhauser.
Edmonton Oilers over Calgary Flames, 63%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+5.8 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (+4.2 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.1 points). The case against is goalies (-2.2 points). The line EDM -1.5, total 6.5. CGY starter: Devin Cooley. CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark.
Colorado Avalanche over New Jersey Devils, 58%, -148. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.2 points), rest (+6.4 points), venue (+4.1 points). The case against is expected goals (-3.8 points). The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. NJD starter: Jake Allen. NJD is on the second of a back to back. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (likely). COL out: Zachary L'Heureux.
Milwaukee Brewers over Tampa Bay Rays, 56%, -157. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: starting pitchers (+3.3 points), streak (+2.6 points), clutch hitting (+1.5 points). The case against is venue (-3.4 points). The line MIL -1.5, total 6.5. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brian Fitzpatrick, Quinn Priester. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux.
Toronto Maple Leafs over Seattle Kraken, 54%, -135. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: venue (+3.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.8 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 14 games in) (+2.0 points). The case against is rest (-3.2 points). The line TOR -1.5, total 6.5. TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Marshall Rifai. SEA starter: Philipp Grubauer (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson, Jared McCann.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | Lock | TOR | TOR at SEA | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 92% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | CGY at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.8 | 89% | NHL |
| Artturi Lehkonen | Lock | COL | NJD at COL | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.4 | 83% | NHL |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Lock | COL | NJD at COL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4 | 83% | NHL |
| Jackson Chourio | Lock | MIL | MIL at TB | Over 0.5 hits | 1.6 | 81% | MLB |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Play | MIL | MIL at TB | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 6.1 | 76% | MLB |
| Jaylen Brown | Lean | PHI | PHI at IND | Over 25.5 points | 30.4 | 70% | NBA |
| Jalen Johnson | Lean | ATL | MIA at ATL | Over 20.5 points | 24.4 | 69% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | SA at UTAH | Over 23.5 points | 27.6 | 68% | NBA |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Lean | OKC | OKC at DAL | Over 30.5 points | 35.6 | 67% | NBA |
| Leon Draisaitl | Lean | EDM | CGY at EDM | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.2 | 67% | NHL |
| Nikola Jokic | Lean | DEN | DEN at NO | Over 25.5 points | 29.4 | 66% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Props | Jackson Chourio over 0.5 hits; Jacob Misiorowski over 4.5 strikeouts | -161 (fair) | 62% | -161 |
| MLB | Best of both | MIL; Jackson Chourio over 0.5 hits; Jacob Misiorowski over 4.5 strikeouts | +166 | 35% | +187 |
| NBA | Games | SA; CLE; DET; NY; HOU; OKC; LAL | +642 | 9% | +960 |
| NBA | Props | Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points; Jalen Johnson over 20.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 23.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 25.5 points | +591 (fair) | 14% | +591 |
| NBA | Best of both | SA; CLE; DET; Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points; Jalen Johnson over 20.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 23.5 points | +492 | 15% | +581 |
| NHL | Games | WSH; EDM; COL; TOR | +536 | 13% | +667 |
| NHL | Props | Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Artturi Lehkonen over 1.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 2.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal | +165 (fair) | 38% | +165 |
| NHL | Best of both | WSH; EDM; COL; Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Artturi Lehkonen over 1.5 shots on goal | +433 | 16% | +508 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU at MIL | NBA | HOU | 69% | 74% | -5 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAL at LAC | NBA | LAC without Ingram, Hachimura, Strus; LAL without Thiero | 10.9 pts toward LAL |
| OKC at DAL | NBA | DAL without Aldama, Lively, Martin; Marshall day-to-day; OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Mitchell | 9.1 pts against OKC |
| PHI at IND | NBA | IND without Zubac, Sheppard, McConnell; Nembhard questionable, Nesmith, Toppin day-to-day; PHI without Barlow, Walker, Hukporti | 6.8 pts toward PHI |
| SA at UTAH | NBA | UTAH without Jackson, Nurkic, Alexander; Markkanen questionable; SA without Harris | 6.3 pts toward SA |
| HOU at MIL | NBA | HOU without Sengun, Adams; Smart day-to-day | 6.0 pts against HOU |
| ORL at TOR | NBA | TOR without Leonard; ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; Black questionable | 4.1 pts toward TOR |
| WSH at CLE | NBA | WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic | 2.8 pts toward CLE |
| CHA at DET | NBA | DET without Duren; Joe day-to-day; CHA without Knueppel, White, Williams | 2.4 pts toward DET |
| GS at MIN | NBA | MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; GS without Butler, Porzingis, Moody | 2.2 pts against MIN |
| NY at CHI | NBA | CHI without Claxton; Williams day-to-day; NY: Alvarado day-to-day | 1.8 pts toward NY |
| PHI at WSH | NHL | WSH without Desharnais, Sandin; PHI without Tippett, Ristolainen, Konecny | 1.1 pts toward WSH |
| CGY at EDM | NHL | EDM without Hyman, Savoie; Ekholm, Dickinson GTD; CGY without Huberdeau, Honzek | 1.0 pts against EDM |
| DEN at NO | NBA | NO without Missi; Poole day-to-day; DEN without Jones, Strawther; Johnson day-to-day | 0.7 pts against DEN |
| CGY at EDM | NHL | Goalies (EDM: Jarry in for Levi, hurt | 0.6 pts against EDM |
| TOR at SEA | NHL | SEA without McCann, Lindgren; TOR without Tavares, Tanev, Rifai; Marchenko GTD | 0.6 pts against TOR |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | NBA | second of a back to back | NY at CHI | NY 70% (our pick) |
| CHI | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | NY at CHI | NY 70% (our pick is the other side) |
| DAL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | OKC at DAL | OKC 66% (our pick is the other side) |
| WSH | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | WSH at CLE | CLE 77% (our pick is the other side) |
| HOU | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | HOU at MIL | HOU 69% (our pick) |
| MIL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | HOU at MIL | HOU 69% (our pick is the other side) |
| LAL | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | LAL at LAC | LAL 65% (our pick) |
| LAC | NBA | 2 time zones crossed | LAL at LAC | LAL 65% (our pick is the other side) |
| GS | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | GS at MIN | MIN 62% (our pick is the other side) |
| MIN | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | GS at MIN | MIN 62% (our pick) |
| MIA | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | MIA at ATL | ATL 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| ATL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | MIA at ATL | ATL 55% (our pick) |
| CHA | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CHA at DET | DET 71% (our pick is the other side) |
| DET | NBA | second of a back to back | CHA at DET | DET 71% (our pick) |
| SA | NBA | second of a back to back | SA at UTAH | SA 82% (our pick) |
| UTAH | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | SA at UTAH | SA 82% (our pick is the other side) |
| IND | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | PHI at IND | PHI 62% (our pick is the other side) |
| PHI | NHL | second of a back to back | PHI at WSH | WSH 66% (our pick is the other side) |
| NJD | NHL | second of a back to back | NJD at COL | COL 58% (our pick is the other side) |
The NFL card for Thursday, October 29 is already posted: GB 62% (-185).
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 27)
MLB: 0-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at TB | MIL | 55% | -123 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 81% | 6 | Hit |
| Jackson Chourio | Over 0.5 hits | 76% | 2 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (-160) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+195) missed.
NBA: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC at SA | SA | 88% | -1800 | Hit |
| BKN at BOS | BOS | 82% | -625 | Hit |
| DET at NY | NY | 61% | -170 | Hit |
| POR at LAL | LAL | 58% | -120 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 24.5 points | 68% | 29 | Hit |
| Domantas Sabonis | Over 18.5 points | 65% | 20 | Hit |
| Jayson Tatum | Over 18.5 points | 69% | 40 | Hit |
| Luka Doncic | Over 28.5 points | 65% | 41 | Hit |
| Deni Avdija | Over 22.5 points | 67% | 23 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+257) missed; the props parlay (+637) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+513) hit.
NHL: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at ANA | ANA | 65% | -218 | Miss |
| BOS at CAR | CAR | 63% | -192 | Hit |
| OTT at VGK | VGK | 59% | -162 | Hit |
| BUF at SJS | BUF | 56% | -148 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 85% | 1 | Miss |
| David Pastrnak | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 1 | Miss |
| Mark Stone | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 76% | 3 | Hit |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 69% | 4 | Hit |
| Macklin Celebrini | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 75% | 4 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+501) missed; the props parlay (+220) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+498) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 12 since Oct 1 | 22-14 | -4.06 u | -11.3% | 24-12 (67%) | 0-4 |
| MLB | 22 since Sep 30 | 20-16 | -1.37 u | -3.8% | 36-25 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 8 since Oct 20 | 28-9 | +1.37 u | +3.7% | 21-18 (54%) | 3-5 |
| NHL | 28 since Sep 30 | 73-35 | +6.58 u | +6.1% | 86-47 (65%) | 6-22 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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