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Best Bets2026-10-25

Best Bets for Sunday, October 25: OKC 88%, MIN 79% and 13 More Picks Across the NFL, NBA and NHL

By Verdexed Analytics

C.J. Stroud, fantasy No. 5 quarterback through the first six weeks of the season, has passed for at least 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in two of his past three games.
Photo: Matt Ben Stone/Action Plus/Icon Sportswire, via ESPN (editorial)

15 picks to win on the Model Cards for Sunday, October 25, across the NFL, NBA and NHL, plus 15 props. The firmest call is Oklahoma City Thunder at 88% (-1350). Yesterday's cards: MLB 1-0, NBA 5-0 with the parlay hitting, NHL 4-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.

Today's card

GameCallPickOur numberPriceMarketEdgeLeagueWhy
LAC at OKCLockOKC88%-135089%-1NBAinjuries (OKC without Topic; LAC without Ingram, Strus, Miller) +9.4, preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 2 games in) +6.6
IND at MINLockMIN79%-32573%+5NFLepa per play +10.0, point margin +6.2
NYG at HOULockHOU78%-52080%-2NFLepa per play +13.6, point margin +2.2
ORL at NYLockNY73%-29872%+1NBAnet rating, last 10 +7.3, injuries (NY: Alvarado day-to-day; ORL without Banchero, Penda, Isaac) +5.7
DEN at ARILockDEN70%-23067%+3NFLepa per play +15.3, point margin +7.6
CLE at TENLockCLE68%-13555%+13NFLepa per play +15.4, point margin +5.1
SF at ATLLockSF66%-14857%+9NFLepa per play +19.4, point margin +10.5
COL at NSHLockCOL66%-23067%-1NHLexpected goals (5v5) +8.1, back to back +6.6
LAL at UTAHPlayLAL63%-26570%-7NBAhead to head +9.1, net rating, last 10 +5.8
IND at BKNPlayIND63%-27870%-8NBAvenue +8.3, net rating, last 10 +7.0
NYI at DALPlayDAL63%-19864%-1NHLexpected goals +3.2, preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) +2.9
MIN at VANPlayMIN62%-19263%-1NHLexpected goals (5v5) +10.6, expected goals +8.8
LAR at LVPlayLAR62%-18562%0NFLepa per play +25.5, yards margin +5.2
FLA at CHIPlayFLA62%-18562%0NHLexpected goals (5v5) +11.5, shot share (Corsi) +5.3
TB at CARPlayCAR60%-16660%0NFLpoint margin +5.4, offense +4.7

Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.

Why each pick

Oklahoma City Thunder over LA Clippers, 88%, -1350. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (OKC without Topic; LAC without Ingram, Strus, Miller) (+9.4 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 2 games in) (+6.6 points), head to head (+5.1 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.1 points). The line OKC -16.5, total 224.5. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Jordan Miller, Max Strus, Yanic Konan Niederhauser. OKC out: Nikola Topic, Otega Oweh, Thomas Sorber.

Minnesota Vikings over Indianapolis Colts, 79%, -325. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+10.0 points), point margin (+6.2 points), injuries (IND without Pierce, Warren, Gardner; Walley day-to-day) (+5.7 points). The case against is offense (-2.2 points). We like this side 5 points more than the price does. The line MIN -6.5, total 41.5. IND starter: Daniel Jones. IND out: Riley Leonard, Alec Pierce, Anthony Gould, Tyler Warren, Bryce Boettcher. MIN starter: Kyler Murray. MIN out: Max Brosmer, Demond Claiborne, Caleb Tiernan, Charles Demmings, Donovan Jackson.

Houston Texans over New York Giants, 78%, -520. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+13.6 points), point margin (+2.2 points), turnovers (+1.9 points). The case against is motivation (-2.0 points). The line HOU -10.0, total 42.5. NYG starter: J.J. McCarthy. NYG out: Jake Haener, Theo Johnson, Greg Newsome II, Jevon Holland, Josh Sills. HOU starter: C.J. Stroud. HOU out: David Montgomery, Jawhar Jordan, Marlin Klein, Blake Fisher, Febechi Nwaiwu. Crew: Land Clark has been friendly to NYG (+0.6 flags a game versus its norm, 3-2 in 5 games). Crew: Land Clark has been friendly to HOU (-0.4 flags a game versus its norm, 6-2 in 8 games).

New York Knicks over Orlando Magic, 73%, -298. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.3 points), injuries (NY: Alvarado day-to-day; ORL without Banchero, Penda, Isaac) (+5.7 points), venue (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 2 games in) (-9.7 points). The line NY -7.5, total 224.5. ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero.

Denver Broncos over Arizona Cardinals, 70%, -230. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+15.3 points), point margin (+7.6 points), recent form (+3.0 points). The case against is home/road split (-2.1 points). We like this side 3 points more than the price does. The line DEN -4.5, total 42.5. DEN starter: Bo Nix. DEN out: Tyler Badie, Jonah Elliss, Talanoa Hufanga. ARI starter: Jacoby Brissett. ARI out: Jeremiyah Love, Andrew Wingard, Jon Gaines II, Walter Nolen III.

Cleveland Browns over Tennessee Titans, 68%, -135. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+15.4 points), point margin (+5.1 points), recent form (+3.1 points). The case against is home/road split (-2.2 points). We like this side 13 points more than the price does. The line CLE -2.5, total 36.5. CLE starter: Deshaun Watson. CLE out: Dillon Gabriel, Taylen Green, Audric Estime, Justin Jefferson, Kalia Davis. TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Nicholas Singleton, Tyjae Spears, Calvin Ridley, Kylen Granson, Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson. Crew: Scott Novak has been friendly to CLE (-1.5 flags a game versus its norm, 0-3 in 3 games).

San Francisco 49ers over Atlanta Falcons, 66%, -148. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+19.4 points), point margin (+10.5 points), offense (+4.2 points). The case against is injuries (ATL without Deablo, Robinson, Bowman; Daniels day-to-day; SF without Evans, Samuel, Bosa) (-2.2 points). We like this side 9 points more than the price does. The line SF -2.5, total 50.5. SF starter: Brock Purdy. SF out: Kurtis Rourke, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel Sr., Mike Evans, Garret Wallow. ATL starter: Michael Penix Jr. ATL out: Andy Dalton, Jack Strand, Brian Robinson Jr., Beaux Collins, Olamide Zaccheaus. Crew: Clay Martin has been tough on SF (+1.9 flags a game versus its norm, 1-3 in 4 games).

Colorado Avalanche over Nashville Predators, 66%, -230. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.1 points), back to back (+6.6 points), rest (+5.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 11 games in) (-3.5 points). The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. COL starter: Scott Wedgewood (projected). COL out: Nicolas Roy, Zachary L'Heureux. NSH starter: Justus Annunen (projected). NSH is on the second of a back to back.

Los Angeles Lakers over Utah Jazz, 63%, -265. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+9.1 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.8 points), venue (+5.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 2 games in) (-18.6 points). The market is 7 points firmer on it than we are; we still have LAL as the more likely winner. The line LAL -7.5, total 237.5. LAL out: Adou Thiero, Cameron Carr. UTAH out: Jusuf Nurkic, Trey Alexander.

Indiana Pacers over Brooklyn Nets, 63%, -278. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+8.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+7.0 points), head to head (+5.6 points). The case against is injuries (IND without Sheppard, McConnell, Furphy) (-2.7 points). The market is 8 points firmer on it than we are; we still have IND as the more likely winner. The line IND -7.5, total 231.5. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell. BKN out: Mikel Brown Jr. BKN is on the second of a back to back.

Dallas Stars over New York Islanders, 63%, -198. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+3.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (+2.9 points), venue (+2.7 points). The case against is head to head (-1.0 points). The line DAL -1.5, total 5.5. NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin (projected). NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Matias Maccelli. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Sam Steel, Esa Lindell, Luke Krys.

Minnesota Wild over Vancouver Canucks, 62%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+10.6 points), expected goals (+8.8 points), goal margin (+7.1 points). The case against is back to back (-6.9 points). The line MIN -1.5, total 6.5. MIN starter: Calvin Pickard. MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno. MIN is on the second of a back to back. VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Mackenzie MacEachern.

Los Angeles Rams over Las Vegas Raiders, 62%, -185. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+25.5 points), yards margin (+5.2 points), point margin (+4.4 points). The case against is injuries (LV: Walker, Washington day-to-day; LAR without Landman, Garrett, Turner; Nacua, McDuffie day-to-day) (-4.2 points). The line LAR -3.5, total 48.5. LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Davante Adams, Terrance Ferguson, Blake Grupe, Kobie Turner, Myles Garrett. LV starter: Kirk Cousins. LV out: Dont'e Thornton Jr., Carter Runyon.

Florida Panthers over Chicago Blackhawks, 62%, -185. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.5 points), shot share (Corsi) (+5.3 points), expected goals (+4.6 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The line FLA -1.5, total 6.5. FLA starter: Akira Schmid. FLA out: Jacob Markstrom, Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (projected). CHI out: Bowen Byram.

Carolina Panthers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 60%, -166. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: point margin (+5.4 points), offense (+4.7 points), injuries (CAR without Phillips; TB without Winfield, Egbuka, Rozeboom) (+3.7 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.5 points). The line CAR -3.0, total 44.5. TB starter: Baker Mayfield. TB out: Emeka Egbuka, Antoine Winfield Jr., Ayden Garnes, Billy Schrauth, Christian Rozeboom. CAR starter: Bryce Young. CAR out: Haynes King, AJ Dillon, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Jaelan Phillips, Sam Hecht. Crew: Carl Cheffers has been friendly to TB (-2.9 flags a game versus its norm, 1-2 in 3 games).

The props card

PlayerCallTeamGamePropOur projectionOur probabilityLeague
Matt BoldyLockMINMIN at VANOver 2.5 shots on goal4.286%NHL
Nathan MacKinnonLockCOLCOL at NSHOver 2.5 shots on goal4.184%NHL
Kirill KaprizovPlayMINMIN at VANOver 2.5 shots on goal3.575%NHL
Cole CaufieldPlayMTLMTL at WPGOver 2.5 shots on goal3.370%NHL
Cade CunninghamLeanDETDET at PHIOver 21.5 points25.569%NBA
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderLeanOKCLAC at OKCOver 27.5 points32.669%NBA
Brady TkachukLeanFLAFLA at CHIOver 3.5 shots on goal4.569%NHL
Domantas SabonisLeanSACMEM at SACOver 18.5 points21.868%NBA
Tyrese HaliburtonLeanINDIND at BKNOver 20.5 points24.168%NBA
Luka DoncicLeanLALLAL at UTAHOver 30.5 points35.266%NBA
Matthew StaffordLeanLARLAR at LVOver 263.5 passing yards303.465%NFL
C.J. StroudLeanHOUNYG at HOUOver 281.5 passing yards323.965%NFL
Brock PurdyLeanSFSF at ATLOver 255.5 passing yards293.665%NFL
Bijan RobinsonLeanATLSF at ATLOver 82.5 rushing yards106.465%NFL
Jahmyr GibbsLeanDETGB at DETOver 76.5 rushing yards98.565%NFL

Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.

The tickets

LeagueTicketLegsPaysOur probabilityFair
NFLGamesMIN; HOU; DEN; CLE; SF; LAR; CAR+15117%+1279
NFLPropsMatthew Stafford over 263.5 passing yards; C.J. Stroud over 281.5 passing yards; Brock Purdy over 255.5 passing yards; Bijan Robinson over 82.5 rushing yards; Jahmyr Gibbs over 76.5 rushing yards+747 (fair)12%+747
NFLBest of bothMIN; HOU; DEN; Matthew Stafford over 263.5 passing yards; Brock Purdy over 255.5 passing yards; Bijan Robinson over 82.5 rushing yards+70512%+735
NBAGamesOKC; NY; LAL; IND+16925%+295
NBAPropsCade Cunningham over 21.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 27.5 points; Domantas Sabonis over 18.5 points; Tyrese Haliburton over 20.5 points; Luka Doncic over 30.5 points+587 (fair)15%+587
NBABest of bothOKC; NY; LAL; Cade Cunningham over 21.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 27.5 points; Domantas Sabonis over 18.5 points+50713%+663
NHLGamesCOL; DAL; MIN; FLA+40616%+526
NHLPropsMatt Boldy over 2.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 2.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal; Cole Caufield over 2.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 3.5 shots on goal+281 (fair)26%+281
NHLBest of bothCOL; DAL; MIN; Matt Boldy over 2.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 2.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal+50414%+613

Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.

Where we differ from the market

Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.

GameLeagueOur sideVerdexedMarketGap
KC at SEANFLKC57%44%+13
CLE at TENNFLCLE69%55%+13
SF at ATLNFLSF67%57%+9
IND at MINNFLMIN78%73%+5
TOR at MINNBAMIN54%51%+3

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.

GameLeagueOur sideVerdexedMarketGap
GB at DETNFLDET54%62%-8
MIA at NYJNFLNYJ58%66%-8
IND at BKNNBAIND63%70%-8
LAL at UTAHNBALAL63%70%-7
MEM at SACNBAMEM53%60%-7
CIN at BALNFLCIN53%57%-4

Injuries that move the number

Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.

GameLeagueWho is outEffect
LAC at OKCNBAOKC without Topic; LAC without Ingram, Strus, Miller9.4 pts toward OKC
IND at MINNFLIND without Pierce, Warren, Gardner; Walley day-to-day5.7 pts toward MIN
ORL at NYNBANY: Alvarado day-to-day; ORL without Banchero, Penda, Isaac5.7 pts toward NY
LAR at LVNFLLV: Walker, Washington day-to-day; LAR without Landman, Garrett, Turner; Nacua, McDuffie day-to-day4.2 pts against LAR
TB at CARNFLCAR without Phillips; TB without Winfield, Egbuka, Rozeboom3.7 pts toward CAR
MIA at NYJNFLNYJ without Hall, Ossai, Brownlee3.6 pts against NYJ
IND at BKNNBAIND without Sheppard, McConnell, Furphy2.7 pts against IND
TOR at MINNBAMIN without DiVincenzo2.5 pts against MIN
SF at ATLNFLATL without Deablo, Robinson, Bowman; Daniels day-to-day; SF without Evans, Samuel, Bosa2.2 pts against SF
LAL at UTAHNBAUTAH without Nurkic, Alexander; LAL without Thiero2.2 pts toward LAL
NYG at HOUNFLHOU without Blankenship, Pitre, Jordan; NYG without Edmunds, Holland, Adebo; Nubin day-to-day1.9 pts toward HOU
CIN at BALNFLBAL without Hawkins, Robinson1.4 pts toward CIN
DEN at ARINFLARI without Wingard, Love; Melton day-to-day; DEN without Hufanga; Surtain day-to-day1.2 pts toward DEN
DET at PHINBAPHI without Barlow, Hukporti; Walker questionable, Embiid, James day-to-day; DET without Duren, Thompson1.2 pts toward PHI
MEM at SACNBASAC without Raynaud, Cardwell; Murray day-to-day; MEM without Edey, Coward1.1 pts against MEM
MTL at WPGNHLWPG without Morrissey; Namestnikov GTD; MTL without Suzuki, Demidov0.8 pts against MTL
FLA at CHINHLCHI: Byram GTD; FLA without Marchand, Barkov0.6 pts against FLA
KC at SEANFLSEA without Thomas, Charbonnet, Arnold; Emmanwori, Lawrence day-to-day; KC without Rice; Sneed day-to-day0.5 pts toward KC

Schedule spots

Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.

TeamLeagueSpotGameOur number
LACNBA2 time zones crossedLAC at OKCOKC 88% (our pick is the other side)
BKNNBAsecond of a back to backIND at BKNIND 63% (our pick is the other side)
MINNBA2.1K km since the last gameTOR at MINMIN 54% (our pick)
PHINBAsecond of a back to backDET at PHIPHI 53% (our pick)
MINNHLsecond of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days, road game 4MIN at VANMIN 62% (our pick)
NYINHL2.2K km since the last gameNYI at DALDAL 63% (our pick is the other side)
NSHNHLsecond of a back to backCOL at NSHCOL 66% (our pick is the other side)

How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 24)

MLB: 1-0

GamePickOur numberPriceResult
TB at MILMIL54%-120Hit
PlayerPropOur probabilityActualResult
Drew RasmussenOver 5.5 strikeouts67%4Miss
Logan HendersonOver 3.5 strikeouts83%4Hit

Tickets: the props parlay (-126) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+229) missed.

NBA: 5-0

GamePickOur numberPriceResult
SA at DALSA82%-900Hit
BKN at CLECLE80%-500Hit
NO at DENDEN76%-485Hit
MIL at PHIPHI75%-675Hit
GS at PHXPHX74%-395Hit
PlayerPropOur probabilityActualResult
Nikola JokicOver 26.5 points67%35Hit
Victor WembanyamaOver 23.5 points67%23Miss
Joel EmbiidOver 26.5 points68%28Hit
Jaylen BrownOver 26.5 points69%27Hit
Anthony DavisOver 19.5 points69%19Miss

Tickets: the games parlay (+131) hit; the props parlay (+591) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+399) missed.

NHL: 4-1

GamePickOur numberPriceResult
LAK at NJDNJD63%-205Hit
SJS at BOSBOS62%-192Hit
TOR at EDMEDM58%-155Miss
CAR at STLCAR58%-155Hit
MIN at SEAMIN60%-175Hit
PlayerPropOur probabilityActualResult
Connor McDavidOver 1.5 shots on goal88%3Hit
Leon DraisaitlOver 1.5 shots on goal89%7Hit
David PastrnakOver 1.5 shots on goal92%5Hit
Mark StoneOver 1.5 shots on goal74%1Miss
Alex DeBrincatOver 2.5 shots on goal80%3Hit

Tickets: the games parlay (+862) missed; the props parlay (+136) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+394) hit.

The record

LeagueCardsLegsUnitsROIPropsGame parlays
NFL10 since Oct 117-11-3.52 u-12.6%21-8 (72%)0-3
MLB20 since Sep 3020-14+0.63 u+1.9%33-24 (58%)0-8
NBA5 since Oct 2016-5+0.72 u+3.4%8-16 (33%)3-2
NHL25 since Sep 3067-30+8.17 u+8.4%80-38 (68%)6-19

Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.

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Follow the cards live

Every card posts at 11 AM ET, stays live until each game starts, locks leg by leg at first pitch and is graded in public as the games finish; the ledgers run per league.