Best Bets for Monday, October 19: SF 80%, COL 67% and 4 More Picks Across the NFL, MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
6 picks to win on the Model Cards for Monday, October 19, across the NFL, MLB and NHL, plus 9 props. The firmest call is San Francisco 49ers at 80% (-410). Yesterday's cards: NFL 4-3, MLB 1-0, NHL 1-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at SF | Lock | SF | 80% | -410 | 77% | +3 | NFL | epa per play +16.3, point margin +9.1 |
| COL at PHI | Lock | COL | 67% | -238 | 68% | 0 | NHL | expected goals +13.6, expected goals (5v5) +9.8 |
| PIT at UTA | Play | UTA | 61% | -185 | 62% | -1 | NHL | expected goals +7.9, goal margin +3.6 |
| CLE at TB | Lean | TB | 57% | -157 | 58% | -1 | MLB | home/road split +3.6, venue +3.3 |
| ANA at NYR | Lean | NYR | 55% | -142 | 56% | -2 | NHL | expected goals +3.9, goalies +3.0 |
| SJS at TOR | Lean | TOR | 54% | -135 | 55% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +2.7, injuries +2.2 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on CLE at TB: it makes the game 8.3 runs against a posted 6.5.
Why each pick
San Francisco 49ers over Washington Commanders, 80%, -410. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+16.3 points), point margin (+9.1 points), offense (+3.4 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.5 points). We like this side 3 points more than the price does. The line SF -7.5, total 51.5. WSH starter: Jayden Daniels. WSH out: Marcus Mariota, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Jaylin Lane, Charles Omenihu. SF starter: Brock Purdy. SF out: Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Deebo Samuel Sr., Demarcus Robinson, Dre Greenlaw.
Colorado Avalanche over Philadelphia Flyers, 67%, -238. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+13.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+9.8 points), goal margin (+8.2 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-3.4 points). The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Georgii Merkulov, Nicolas Roy, Logan O'Connor, Zachary L'Heureux. PHI starter: Joseph Woll. PHI out: Cam York, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny.
Utah Mammoth over Pittsburgh Penguins, 61%, -185. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+7.9 points), goal margin (+3.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.7 points). The case against is recent form (-2.8 points). The line UTA -1.5, total 6.5. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Justin Brazeau. UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone.
Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Guardians, 57%, -157. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: home/road split (+3.6 points), venue (+3.3 points), record (+1.1 points). The case against is run margin (-1.0 points). The line TB -1.5, total 6.5. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux.
New York Rangers over Anaheim Ducks, 55%, -142. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+3.9 points), goalies (+3.0 points), time zone (+2.2 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-3.3 points). The line NYR -1.5, total 6.5. ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Troy Terry. NYR starter: Dylan Garand (likely). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.
Toronto Maple Leafs over San Jose Sharks, 54%, -135. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+2.7 points), injuries (+2.2 points), time zone (+2.2 points). The case against is head to head (-2.3 points). The line TOR -1.5, total 6.5. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (likely). TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky. TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Miles Wood.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière | Lock | NYR | ANA at NYR | Over 0.5 shots on goal | 1.7 | 99% | NHL |
| Auston Matthews | Lock | TOR | SJS at TOR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.9 | 91% | NHL |
| Cale Makar | Lock | COL | COL at PHI | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.6 | 87% | NHL |
| Yandy Díaz | Play | TB | CLE at TB | Over 0.5 hits | 1.4 | 75% | MLB |
| Macklin Celebrini | Play | SJS | SJS at TOR | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.3 | 71% | NHL |
| Christian McCaffrey | Lean | SF | WSH at SF | Over 53.5 rushing yards | 70.1 | 66% | NFL |
| Freddy Peralta | Lean | TB | CLE at TB | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 4.2 | 66% | MLB |
| Brock Purdy | Lean | SF | WSH at SF | Over 257.5 passing yards | 296.1 | 65% | NFL |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Lean | COL | COL at PHI | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.3 | 65% | NHL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Christian McCaffrey over 53.5 rushing yards; Brock Purdy over 257.5 passing yards | +131 (fair) | 43% | +131 |
| MLB | Props | Yandy Díaz over 0.5 hits; Freddy Peralta over 3.5 strikeouts | +102 (fair) | 49.5% | +102 |
| MLB | Best of both | TB; Yandy Díaz over 0.5 hits; Freddy Peralta over 3.5 strikeouts | +230 | 28% | +254 |
| NHL | Games | COL; UTA; NYR; TOR | +549 | 12% | +721 |
| NHL | Props | Alexis Lafrenière over 0.5 shots on goal; Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Cale Makar over 1.5 shots on goal; Macklin Celebrini over 2.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 3.5 shots on goal | +175 (fair) | 36% | +175 |
| NHL | Best of both | COL; UTA; NYR; Alexis Lafrenière over 0.5 shots on goal; Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Cale Makar over 1.5 shots on goal | +373 | 18% | +465 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| COL at PHI | NHL | PHI without Tippett, Konecny; COL without Roy | 1.8 pts toward COL |
| SJS at TOR | NHL | TOR without Tavares, Joshua | 1.3 pts against TOR |
| WSH at SF | NFL | SF without Samuel, Aiyuk; WSH without Croskey-Merritt | 1.0 pts toward SF |
| ANA at NYR | NHL | NYR without Sykora; ANA without Terry, Poehling | 1.0 pts toward NYR |
| PIT at UTA | NHL | UTA without Carcone, Lamoureux | 0.4 pts against UTA |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | NHL | 3.9K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | ANA at NYR | NYR 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| COL | NHL | 2.5K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | COL at PHI | COL 67% (our pick) |
| PIT | NHL | road game 4 | PIT at UTA | UTA 61% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 18)
NFL: 4-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI at LAR | LAR | 80% | -750 | Miss |
| LAC at KC | KC | 78% | -425 | Hit |
| NYJ at NE | NE | 76% | -345 | Hit |
| TEN at IND | IND | 69% | -290 | Miss |
| HOU at JAX | JAX | 67% | -148 | Miss |
| BUF at LV | BUF | 67% | -245 | Hit |
| DAL at GB | GB | 65% | -108 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | Over 256.5 passing yards | 65% | 305 | Hit |
| Bijan Robinson | Over 67.5 rushing yards | 66% | 61 | Miss |
| Matthew Stafford | Over 331.5 passing yards | 65% | 222 | Miss |
| Josh Allen | Over 235.5 passing yards | 65% | 255 | Hit |
| Kenneth Walker III | Over 74.5 rushing yards | 66% | 128 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1004) missed; the props parlay (+736) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+539) missed.
MLB: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at CLE | TB | 55% | -126 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 81% | 6 | Hit |
| Parker Messick | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 79% | 3 | Miss |
Tickets: the props parlay (-178) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+180) missed.
NHL: 1-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at CGY | CAR | 64% | -218 | Miss |
| CBJ at MIN | MIN | 62% | -192 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 68% | 5 | Hit |
| Matt Boldy | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 71% | 6 | Hit |
| Andrei Svechnikov | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 88% | 1 | Miss |
| Sebastian Aho | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 79% | 3 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+122) missed; the props parlay (+203) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+354) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 8 since Oct 1 | 16-10 | -2.78 u | -10.7% | 17-8 (68%) | 0-3 |
| MLB | 17 since Sep 30 | 17-14 | -1.37 u | -4.4% | 30-21 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NHL | 19 since Sep 30 | 52-22 | +7.50 u | +10.1% | 58-32 (64%) | 5-14 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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