Best Bets for Wednesday, October 14: LAD 62%, COL 57% and 1 More Pick Across the MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
3 picks to win on the Model Cards for Wednesday, October 14, across the MLB and NHL, plus 6 props. The firmest call is Los Angeles Dodgers at 62% (-176). Yesterday's cards: MLB 1-0, NHL 3-3. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at LAD | Play | LAD | 62% | -176 | 61% | +1 | MLB | venue +4.2, starting pitchers +3.3 |
| DAL at COL | Lean | COL | 57% | -135 | 55% | +1 | NHL | shot share (Corsi) +6.9, expected goals (5v5) +6.2 |
| MTL at WSH | Lean | WSH | 53% | -125 | 53% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +1.9, goal margin +1.5 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Los Angeles Dodgers over Milwaukee Brewers, 62%, -176. Play on the MLB card. What drives it: venue (+4.2 points), starting pitchers (+3.3 points), home/road split (+1.0 points). The case against is streak (-1.5 points). The line LAD -1.5, total 7.5. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brandon Woodruff, Brian Fitzpatrick, Grant Anderson, Quinn Priester. LAD out: Ben Casparius, Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol, Eric Lauer, Gavin Stone.
Colorado Avalanche over Dallas Stars, 57%, -135. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: shot share (Corsi) (+6.9 points), expected goals (5v5) (+6.2 points), venue (+4.9 points). The case against is power play (-4.7 points). The line COL -1.5, total 5.5. DAL starter: Casey DeSmith. DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, Luke Krys. DAL is on the second of a back to back. COL starter: Scott Wedgewood (likely). COL out: Georgii Merkulov, Logan O'Connor. COL is on the second of a back to back.
Washington Capitals over Montréal Canadiens, 53%, -125. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+1.9 points), goal margin (+1.5 points), head to head (+1.4 points). The case against is power play (-2.8 points). The line WSH -1.5, total 6.5. MTL starter: Jakub Dobes. MTL out: Oliver Kapanen, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault. MTL is on the second of a back to back. WSH starter: Charlie Lindgren (projected). WSH out: Matt Roy, Rasmus Sandin. WSH is on the second of a back to back.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Lock | LAD | MIL at LAD | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 5.3 | 84% | MLB |
| Martin Necas | Lock | COL | DAL at COL | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.3 | 82% | NHL |
| Nick Suzuki | Lock | MTL | MTL at WSH | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.3 | 81% | NHL |
| Robert Gasser | Play | MIL | MIL at LAD | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 4.8 | 78% | MLB |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Play | COL | DAL at COL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 73% | NHL |
| Cole Caufield | Play | MTL | MTL at WSH | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 73% | NHL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Props | Blake Snell over 3.5 strikeouts; Robert Gasser over 3.5 strikeouts | -188 (fair) | 65% | -188 |
| MLB | Best of both | LAD; Blake Snell over 3.5 strikeouts; Robert Gasser over 3.5 strikeouts | +140 | 40% | +149 |
| NHL | Games | COL; WSH | +213 | 30% | +233 |
| NHL | Props | Martin Necas over 1.5 shots on goal; Nick Suzuki over 1.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 2.5 shots on goal; Cole Caufield over 2.5 shots on goal | +185 (fair) | 35% | +185 |
| NHL | Best of both | COL; WSH; Martin Necas over 1.5 shots on goal; Nick Suzuki over 1.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 2.5 shots on goal | +548 | 15% | +589 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at COL | NHL | DAL without Johnston, Duchene | 1.9 pts toward COL |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | NHL | second of a back to back | DAL at COL | COL 57% (our pick is the other side) |
| COL | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | DAL at COL | COL 57% (our pick) |
| MTL | NHL | second of a back to back | MTL at WSH | WSH 53% (our pick is the other side) |
| WSH | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | MTL at WSH | WSH 53% (our pick) |
The NFL card for Thursday, October 15 is already posted: SEA 51% (-148).
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 13)
MLB: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at TB | TB | 56% | -136 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 66% | 6 | Hit |
| Parker Messick | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 67% | 3 | Miss |
Tickets: the props parlay (+126) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+292) missed.
NHL: 3-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NYI | NYI | 64% | -205 | Hit |
| PIT at CHI | PIT | 61% | -162 | Miss |
| CGY at ANA | ANA | 60% | -175 | Miss |
| TOR at UTA | UTA | 60% | -162 | Hit |
| TBL at NYR | TBL | 59% | -162 | Miss |
| WSH at CAR | CAR | 59% | -155 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 66% | 2 | Miss |
| Evan Bouchard | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | 1 | Miss |
| Kyle Connor | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 86% | 3 | Hit |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 87% | 2 | Hit |
| Sebastian Aho | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 3 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1527) missed; the props parlay (+138) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+408) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 6 since Oct 1 | 12-6 | -0.64 u | -3.6% | 12-6 (67%) | 0-2 |
| MLB | 12 since Sep 30 | 13-12 | -2.75 u | -11.0% | 25-16 (61%) | 0-7 |
| NHL | 14 since Sep 30 | 39-19 | +3.88 u | +6.7% | 43-25 (63%) | 3-11 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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