Best Bets for Monday, October 12: TB 60%, LAR 56% and 4 More Picks Across the NFL, MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
6 picks to win on the Model Cards for Monday, October 12, across the NFL, MLB and NHL, plus 11 props. The firmest call is Tampa Bay Rays at 60% (-174). Yesterday's cards: NFL 6-1, MLB 1-0, NHL 2-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at TB | Play | TB | 60% | -174 | 61% | 0 | MLB | home/road split +3.6, venue +3.3 |
| BUF at LAR | Lean | LAR | 56% | -175 | 61% | -5 | NFL | epa per play +3.9, yards margin +3.4 |
| LAD at MIL | Lean | LAD | 56% | -136 | 55% | +1 | MLB | starting pitchers +1.4, travel +0.4 |
| OTT at NJD | Lean | NJD | 54% | -135 | 55% | -1 | NHL | schedule load +2.4, high-danger chances +1.8 |
| FLA at BUF | Lean | BUF | 51% | -115 | 51% | 0 | NHL | head to head +1.4, injuries (BUF without Zucker, Timmins; FLA without Marchand, Barkov) +1.2 |
| VGK at MIN | Lean | VGK | 51% | -108 | 49.6% | +2 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.3, shot share (Corsi) +2.7 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on LAD at MIL: it makes the game 8.7 runs against a posted 6.5.
Why each pick
Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Guardians, 60%, -174. Play on the MLB card. What drives it: home/road split (+3.6 points), venue (+3.3 points), record (+1.1 points). The case against is run margin (-1.0 points). The line TB -1.5, total 6.5. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux.
Los Angeles Rams over Buffalo Bills, 56%, -175. Lean on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+3.9 points), yards margin (+3.4 points), red zone (+0.9 points). The case against is offense (-3.6 points). The market is 5 points firmer on it than we are; we still have LAR as the more likely winner. The line LAR -3.5, total 54.5. BUF starter: Josh Allen. BUF out: Joshua Palmer, Ed Oliver. LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Terrance Ferguson, Myles Garrett.
Los Angeles Dodgers over Milwaukee Brewers, 56%, -136. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: starting pitchers (+1.4 points), travel (+0.4 points). The case against is venue (-3.4 points). The line LAD -1.5, total 7. LAD out: Ben Casparius, Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol, Eric Lauer, Gavin Stone. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brandon Woodruff, Brian Fitzpatrick, Grant Anderson, Quinn Priester.
New Jersey Devils over Ottawa Senators, 54%, -135. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: schedule load (+2.4 points), high-danger chances (+1.8 points), injuries (OTT without Sanderson, Eklund) (+1.6 points). The case against is goal margin (-3.2 points). The line NJD -1.5, total 5.5. OTT starter: Linus Ullmark (projected). OTT out: Artem Zub, Cameron Crotty, Jake Sanderson, Kurtis MacDermid, William Eklund. NJD starter: Nico Daws (likely).
Buffalo Sabres over Florida Panthers, 51%, -115. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: head to head (+1.4 points), injuries (BUF without Zucker, Timmins; FLA without Marchand, Barkov) (+1.2 points), recent form (+0.6 points). The case against is shot share (Corsi) (-3.6 points). The line BUF -1.5, total 5.5. FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich. BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (projected). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Topias Leinonen, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Jason Zucker.
Vegas Golden Knights over Minnesota Wild, 51%, -108. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.3 points), shot share (Corsi) (+2.7 points), goal margin (+1.0 points). The case against is venue (-2.2 points). The line MIN -1.5, total 5.5. VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Nick Foligno.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | Lock | VGK | VGK at MIN | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 93% | NHL |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Lock | MIN | VGK at MIN | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.7 | 89% | NHL |
| Foster Griffin | Lock | CLE | CLE at TB | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 5.2 | 82% | MLB |
| Drew Rasmussen | Lock | TB | CLE at TB | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 6.5 | 81% | MLB |
| Tim Stützle | Play | OTT | OTT at NJD | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.1 | 75% | NHL |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Play | LAD | LAD at MIL | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 7.3 | 74% | MLB |
| Logan Henderson | Play | MIL | LAD at MIL | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 5.8 | 72% | MLB |
| Tage Thompson | Play | BUF | FLA at BUF | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.7 | 71% | NHL |
| Jack Hughes | Play | NJD | OTT at NJD | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.3 | 70% | NHL |
| Matthew Stafford | Lean | LAR | BUF at LAR | Over 259.5 passing yards | 298.4 | 65% | NFL |
| Josh Allen | Lean | BUF | BUF at LAR | Over 198.5 passing yards | 227.9 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Matthew Stafford over 259.5 passing yards; Josh Allen over 198.5 passing yards | +135 (fair) | 42% | +135 |
| MLB | Games | TB; LAD | +173 | 34% | +196 |
| MLB | Props | Foster Griffin over 3.5 strikeouts; Drew Rasmussen over 4.5 strikeouts; Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 5.5 strikeouts; Logan Henderson over 4.5 strikeouts | +183 (fair) | 35% | +183 |
| MLB | Best of both | TB; LAD; Foster Griffin over 3.5 strikeouts; Drew Rasmussen over 4.5 strikeouts; Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 5.5 strikeouts | +454 | 17% | +500 |
| NHL | Games | NJD; BUF; VGK | +527 | 14% | +601 |
| NHL | Props | Jack Eichel over 1.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 shots on goal; Tim Stützle over 1.5 shots on goal; Tage Thompson over 3.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal | +225 (fair) | 31% | +225 |
| NHL | Best of both | NJD; BUF; VGK; Jack Eichel over 1.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 shots on goal; Tim Stützle over 1.5 shots on goal | +916 | 9% | +1036 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at LAR | NFL | LAR | 56% | 61% | -5 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| OTT at NJD | NHL | OTT without Sanderson, Eklund | 1.6 pts toward NJD |
| FLA at BUF | NHL | BUF without Zucker, Timmins; FLA without Marchand, Barkov | 1.2 pts toward BUF |
| VGK at MIN | NHL | MIN without Faber | 0.7 pts toward VGK |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | NHL | 2.1K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | VGK at MIN | VGK 51% (our pick) |
| MIN | NHL | 2.4K km since the last game | VGK at MIN | VGK 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| OTT | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | OTT at NJD | NJD 54% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 11)
NFL: 6-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at JAX | JAX | 75% | -380 | Hit |
| HOU at TEN | HOU | 67% | -340 | Hit |
| MIN at NO | MIN | 67% | -142 | Hit |
| CLE at NYJ | CLE | 66% | +114 | Miss |
| CIN at MIA | CIN | 63% | -355 | Hit |
| DET at ARI | DET | 65% | -265 | Hit |
| DEN at LAC | DEN | 61% | -192 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | Over 256.5 passing yards | 65% | 190 | Miss |
| Garrett Wilson | Over 5.5 receptions | 77% | 7 | Hit |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Over 82.5 rushing yards | 65% | 151 | Hit |
| Jared Goff | Over 288.5 passing yards | 65% | 271 | Miss |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Over 4.5 receptions | 73% | 5 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1501) missed; the props parlay (+540) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+660) missed.
MLB: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at MIL | MIL | 51% | -107 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 70% | 7 | Hit |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 72% | 5 | Miss |
Tickets: the props parlay (-100) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+286) missed.
NHL: 2-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NYR | NYR | 68% | -278 | Hit |
| CAR at PHI | CAR | 66% | -218 | Hit |
| SEA at WSH | WSH | 64% | -218 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Garand | Over 23.5 saves | 70% | 19 | Miss |
| Sebastian Aho | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 91% | 2 | Hit |
| Andrei Svechnikov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 69% | 1 | Miss |
| Jared McCann | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | 2 | Hit |
| Alex Tuch | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 88% | 2 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+189) missed; the props parlay (+180) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+291) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 5 since Oct 1 | 12-5 | +0.36 u | +2.1% | 10-6 (62%) | 0-2 |
| MLB | 10 since Sep 30 | 12-10 | -1.49 u | -6.8% | 23-12 (66%) | 0-6 |
| NHL | 12 since Sep 30 | 35-14 | +6.26 u | +12.8% | 38-20 (66%) | 3-9 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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