Best Bets for Sunday, October 11: JAX 75%, NYR 68% and 9 More Picks Across the NFL, MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
11 picks to win on the Model Cards for Sunday, October 11, across the NFL, MLB and NHL, plus 12 props. The firmest call is Jacksonville Jaguars at 75% (-380). Yesterday's cards: MLB 1-0, NHL 5-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at JAX | Lock | JAX | 75% | -380 | 76% | -1 | NFL | - |
| VAN at NYR | Lock | NYR | 68% | -265 | 70% | -2 | NHL | back to back +6.4, rest +6.0 |
| HOU at TEN | Lock | HOU | 67% | -340 | 74% | -7 | NFL | epa per play +25.1, point margin +8.1 |
| MIN at NO | Lock | MIN | 67% | -142 | 56% | +10 | NFL | epa per play +15.6, point margin +9.8 |
| CLE at NYJ | Lock | CLE | 66% | +114 | 45% | +21 | NFL | injuries (NYJ without Hall, Mitchell) +5.9, epa per play +5.3 |
| CAR at PHI | Lock | CAR | 65% | -218 | 66% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +11.2, shot share (Corsi) +8.3 |
| DET at ARI | Play | DET | 65% | -250 | 69% | -4 | NFL | epa per play +17.3, point margin +8.4 |
| SEA at WSH | Play | WSH | 64% | -218 | 66% | -2 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +5.4, shot share (Corsi) +2.5 |
| CIN at MIA | Play | CIN | 63% | -355 | 75% | -12 | NFL | epa per play +16.5, point margin +9.7 |
| DEN at LAC | Play | DEN | 61% | -192 | 63% | -3 | NFL | epa per play +10.0, point margin +4.9 |
| LAD at MIL | Lean | MIL | 51% | -113 | 51% | 0 | MLB | venue +4.0, home/road split +1.4 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on LAD at MIL: it makes the game 8.3 runs against a posted 6.
Why each pick
Jacksonville Jaguars over Philadelphia Eagles, 75%, -380. Lock on the NFL card.
New York Rangers over Vancouver Canucks, 68%, -265. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+6.4 points), rest (+6.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.4 points). The case against is recent form (-0.9 points). The line NYR -1.5, total 6.5. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (likely). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. VAN is on the second of a back to back. NYR starter: Dylan Garand. NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.
Houston Texans over Tennessee Titans, 67%, -340. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+25.1 points), point margin (+8.1 points), offense (+4.8 points). The case against is home/road split (-2.4 points). The market is 7 points firmer on it than we are; we still have HOU as the more likely winner. The line HOU -6.5, total 37.5. HOU starter: C.J. Stroud. HOU out: Tank Dell, Marlin Klein, Aiden Fisher, Braden Smith, Chris Braswell. TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Michael Carter, Nicholas Singleton, David Martin-Robinson, Amani Hooker, Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson. Crew: Alex Kemp has been tough on TEN (+1.8 flags a game versus its norm, 1-2 in 3 games).
Minnesota Vikings over New Orleans Saints, 67%, -142. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+15.6 points), point margin (+9.8 points), motivation (+2.4 points). The case against is defense (-2.2 points). We like this side 10 points more than the price does. The line MIN -2.5, total 41.5. MIN starter: Kyler Murray. MIN out: Max Brosmer, Jordan Addison, Josh Oliver, Charles Demmings, Christian Darrisaw. NO starter: Tyler Shough. NO out: Zach Wilson, Brock Rechsteiner, Anfernee Jennings, Jeremiah Wright, Kaden Elliss. Crew: John Hussey has been friendly to MIN (-1.0 flags a game versus its norm, 3-1 in 4 games).
Cleveland Browns over New York Jets, 66%, +114. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: injuries (NYJ without Hall, Mitchell) (+5.9 points), epa per play (+5.3 points), motivation (+2.4 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.5 points). We like this side 21 points more than the price does. The line NYJ -2.5, total 38.5. CLE starter: Deshaun Watson. CLE out: Dillon Gabriel, Taylen Green, Tylan Wallace, Carsen Ryan, Kalia Davis. NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, Braiden McGregor, Dylan Parham, Kiko Mauigoa.
Carolina Hurricanes over Philadelphia Flyers, 65%, -218. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.2 points), shot share (Corsi) (+8.3 points), goal margin (+6.7 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.2 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 5.5. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis. CAR is on the second of a back to back. PHI starter: Joseph Woll (projected). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin. PHI is on the second of a back to back.
Detroit Lions over Arizona Cardinals, 65%, -250. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+17.3 points), point margin (+8.4 points), offense (+5.2 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.4 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DET as the more likely winner. The line DET -5.5, total 54.5. DET starter: Jared Goff. DET out: Ben Bartch, Brian Branch, Cade Mays, Rock Ya-Sin, Thomas Harper. ARI starter: Jacoby Brissett. ARI out: Marvin Harrison Jr., Hunter Long, Andrew Wingard, Isaiah Adams, Paris Johnson Jr. Crew: Carl Cheffers has been tough on ARI (+1.7 flags a game versus its norm, 1-4 in 5 games).
Washington Capitals over Seattle Kraken, 64%, -218. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.4 points), shot share (Corsi) (+2.5 points), penalty kill (+1.9 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-1.5 points). The line WSH -1.5, total 6.5. SEA starter: Philipp Grubauer (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson. WSH starter: Logan Thompson (projected). WSH out: Rasmus Sandin.
Cincinnati Bengals over Miami Dolphins, 63%, -355. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+16.5 points), point margin (+9.7 points), offense (+5.7 points). The case against is quarterback (-1.5 points). The market is 12 points firmer on it than we are; we still have CIN as the more likely winner. The line CIN -7.0, total 44.5. CIN starter: Joe Burrow. CIN out: Colbie Young, Jack Endries, Connor Lew, Jalen Davis, Kyle Dugger. MIA starter: Malik Willis. MIA out: Kaytron Allen, Caleb Douglas, Justin Joly, Chukwuebuka Godrick, DJ Campbell. Crew: Brad Rogers has been tough on MIA (+1.8 flags a game versus its norm, 1-2 in 3 games).
Denver Broncos over Los Angeles Chargers, 61%, -192. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+10.0 points), point margin (+4.9 points), motivation (+2.6 points). The case against is yards margin (-1.3 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DEN as the more likely winner. The line DEN -3.5, total 41.5. DEN starter: Bo Nix. DEN out: Jonah Coleman, Pat Bryant, Jonathon Cooper, Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss. LAC starter: Justin Herbert. LAC out: Trey Lance, Brenen Thompson, Quentin Johnston, Derwin James Jr., Donte Jackson.
Milwaukee Brewers over Los Angeles Dodgers, 51%, -113. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: venue (+4.0 points), home/road split (+1.4 points), streak (+1.4 points). The case against is travel (-1.6 points). The line MIL -1.5, total 6. LAD out: Ben Casparius, Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol, Eric Lauer, Gavin Stone. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brandon Woodruff, Brian Fitzpatrick, Grant Anderson, Quinn Priester.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann | Lock | SEA | SEA at WSH | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 92% | NHL |
| Sebastian Aho | Lock | CAR | CAR at PHI | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.9 | 91% | NHL |
| Alex Tuch | Lock | WSH | SEA at WSH | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.7 | 88% | NHL |
| Garrett Wilson | Play | NYJ | CLE at NYJ | Over 5.5 receptions | 7.6 | 77% | NFL |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Play | SEA | SF at SEA | Over 4.5 receptions | 6.1 | 73% | NFL |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Play | MIL | LAD at MIL | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 7.1 | 72% | MLB |
| Tarik Skubal | Lean | LAD | LAD at MIL | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 6.9 | 70% | MLB |
| Dylan Garand | Lean | NYR | VAN at NYR | Over 23.5 saves | 27.4 | 70% | NHL |
| Andrei Svechnikov | Lean | CAR | CAR at PHI | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.3 | 69% | NHL |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Lean | DET | DET at ARI | Over 80.5 rushing yards | 104.9 | 66% | NFL |
| Joe Burrow | Lean | CIN | CIN at MIA | Over 256.5 passing yards | 295.3 | 65% | NFL |
| Jared Goff | Lean | DET | DET at ARI | Over 283.5 passing yards | 326.3 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Games | JAX; HOU; MIN; CLE; DET; CIN; DEN | +1527 | 6% | +1715 |
| NFL | Props | Garrett Wilson over 5.5 receptions; Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 4.5 receptions; Jahmyr Gibbs over 80.5 rushing yards; Joe Burrow over 256.5 passing yards; Jared Goff over 283.5 passing yards | +533 (fair) | 16% | +533 |
| NFL | Best of both | JAX; HOU; MIN; Garrett Wilson over 5.5 receptions; Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 4.5 receptions; Jahmyr Gibbs over 80.5 rushing yards | +655 | 12% | +704 |
| MLB | Props | Jacob Misiorowski over 5.5 strikeouts; Tarik Skubal over 5.5 strikeouts | -100 (fair) | 50.1% | -100 |
| MLB | Best of both | MIL; Jacob Misiorowski over 5.5 strikeouts; Tarik Skubal over 5.5 strikeouts | +276 | 25% | +294 |
| NHL | Games | NYR; CAR; WSH | +193 | 28% | +251 |
| NHL | Props | Jared McCann over 1.5 shots on goal; Sebastian Aho over 1.5 shots on goal; Alex Tuch over 1.5 shots on goal; Dylan Garand over 23.5 saves; Andrei Svechnikov over 2.5 shots on goal | +180 (fair) | 36% | +180 |
| NHL | Best of both | NYR; CAR; WSH; Jared McCann over 1.5 shots on goal; Sebastian Aho over 1.5 shots on goal; Alex Tuch over 1.5 shots on goal | +296 | 21% | +374 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at NYJ | NFL | CLE | 66% | 45% | +21 |
| MIN at NO | NFL | MIN | 67% | 56% | +11 |
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at MIA | NFL | CIN | 63% | 75% | -12 |
| SF at SEA | NFL | SEA | 53% | 60% | -7 |
| HOU at TEN | NFL | HOU | 67% | 74% | -7 |
| BAL at ATL | NFL | ATL | 55% | 61% | -6 |
| LV at NE | NFL | NE | 56% | 62% | -6 |
| IND at PIT | NFL | PIT | 54% | 59% | -6 |
| NYG at WSH | NFL | WSH | 58% | 63% | -5 |
| DET at ARI | NFL | DET | 65% | 68% | -4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at NYJ | NFL | NYJ without Hall, Mitchell | 5.9 pts toward CLE |
| LV at NE | NFL | NE without Brown, Hollins | 5.1 pts against NE |
| NYG at WSH | NFL | WSH without Diggs | 4.8 pts against WSH |
| SF at SEA | NFL | SEA without Charbonnet; SF without Aiyuk | 1.7 pts against SEA |
| HOU at TEN | NFL | TEN without Carter; HOU without Dell | 1.1 pts against HOU |
| CAR at PHI | NHL | PHI without Ristolainen; CAR without Jarvis, Nikishin | 0.5 pts against CAR |
| DET at ARI | NFL | ARI without Harrison | 0.4 pts toward DET |
| SEA at WSH | NHL | WSH without Sandin | 0.4 pts against WSH |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | NHL | second of a back to back | VAN at NYR | NYR 68% (our pick is the other side) |
| CAR | NHL | second of a back to back | CAR at PHI | CAR 65% (our pick) |
| PHI | NHL | second of a back to back | CAR at PHI | CAR 65% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 10)
MLB: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS at CLE | CLE | 55% | -143 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 73% | 4 | Miss |
| Gavin Williams | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 70% | 12 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (-105) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+231) missed.
NHL: 5-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NJD | NJD | 68% | -298 | Hit |
| CAR at CHI | CAR | 68% | -258 | Hit |
| TOR at COL | COL | 66% | -218 | Miss |
| DET at MTL | MTL | 61% | -198 | Hit |
| TBL at NYI | TBL | 60% | -180 | Hit |
| DAL at PIT | DAL | 60% | -180 | Miss |
| LAK at VGK | VGK | 59% | -170 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 66% | 1 | Miss |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 86% | 4 | Hit |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 82% | 8 | Hit |
| Jack Eichel | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 91% | 4 | Hit |
| Tage Thompson | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 72% | 6 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1464) missed; the props parlay (+227) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+319) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 4 since Oct 1 | 6-4 | -1.08 u | -10.8% | 7-4 (64%) | 0-1 |
| MLB | 9 since Sep 30 | 11-10 | -2.42 u | -11.5% | 22-11 (67%) | 0-6 |
| NHL | 11 since Sep 30 | 33-13 | +6.44 u | +14.0% | 35-18 (66%) | 3-8 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.