Best Bets for Friday, October 16: COL 62%, BOS 50.3% and 1 More Pick Across the MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
3 picks to win on the Model Cards for Friday, October 16, across the MLB and NHL, plus 6 props. The firmest call is Colorado Avalanche at 62% (-192). Yesterday's cards: NFL 0-1, MLB 1-1, NHL 4-0 with the parlay hitting. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at COL | Play | COL | 62% | -192 | 63% | -1 | NHL | shot share (Corsi) +5.0, venue +4.6 |
| BOS at ANA | Lean | BOS | 50.3% | -112 | 50.4% | 0 | NHL | venue +4.6, power play +2.6 |
| TB at CLE | Lean | TB | 50.3% | -112 | 50.4% | 0 | MLB | starting pitchers +1.2, record +1.1 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on TB at CLE: it makes the game 7.9 runs against a posted 6.5.
Why each pick
Colorado Avalanche over Pittsburgh Penguins, 62%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: shot share (Corsi) (+5.0 points), venue (+4.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+4.1 points). The case against is power play (-3.3 points). The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Justin Brazeau. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Georgii Merkulov, Logan O'Connor.
Boston Bruins over Anaheim Ducks, 50.3%, -112. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: venue (+4.6 points), power play (+2.6 points), goal margin (+2.4 points). The case against is head to head (-3.9 points). The line BOS -1.5, total 6.5. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected). ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Troy Terry.
Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Guardians, 50.3%, -112. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: starting pitchers (+1.2 points), record (+1.1 points), clutch hitting (+1.0 points). The case against is run margin (-1.1 points). The line CLE -1.5, total 6.5. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar | Lock | COL | PIT at COL | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.8 | 90% | NHL |
| Beckett Sennecke | Lock | ANA | BOS at ANA | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.5 | 85% | NHL |
| Nick Martinez | Play | TB | TB at CLE | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 3.5 | 77% | MLB |
| David Pastrnak | Play | BOS | BOS at ANA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.6 | 76% | NHL |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Play | COL | PIT at COL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 75% | NHL |
| José Ramírez | Play | CLE | TB at CLE | Over 0.5 hits | 1.3 | 72% | MLB |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Props | Nick Martinez over 2.5 strikeouts; José Ramírez over 0.5 hits | -127 (fair) | 56% | -127 |
| MLB | Best of both | TB; Nick Martinez over 2.5 strikeouts; José Ramírez over 0.5 hits | +239 | 28% | +256 |
| NHL | Games | COL; BOS | +188 | 31% | +220 |
| NHL | Props | Cale Makar over 1.5 shots on goal; Beckett Sennecke over 1.5 shots on goal; David Pastrnak over 2.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 2.5 shots on goal | +131 (fair) | 43% | +131 |
| NHL | Best of both | COL; BOS; Cale Makar over 1.5 shots on goal; Beckett Sennecke over 1.5 shots on goal; David Pastrnak over 2.5 shots on goal | +398 | 18% | +453 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at ANA | NHL | ANA without Terry, Poehling | 1.2 pts toward BOS |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 15)
NFL: 0-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA at DEN | SEA | 51% | -148 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Over 3.5 receptions | 79% | 12 | Hit |
| Sam Darnold | Over 156.5 passing yards | 66% | 278 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (-107) hit.
MLB: 1-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at CLE | CLE | 55% | -122 | Hit |
| MIL at LAD | LAD | 59% | -156 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 77% | 9 | Hit |
| Griffin Jax | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 81% | 2 | Miss |
| Tyler Glasnow | Over 6.5 strikeouts | 67% | 6 | Miss |
| William Contreras | Over 0.5 hits | 71% | 1 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+199) missed; the props parlay (+235) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+569) missed.
NHL: 4-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY at VGK | VGK | 68% | -285 | Hit |
| SEA at TBL | TBL | 68% | -278 | Hit |
| VAN at FLA | FLA | 68% | -298 | Hit |
| NYI at OTT | OTT | 58% | -162 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 90% | - | Pending |
| Auston Matthews | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 78% | - | Pending |
| Macklin Celebrini | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 75% | - | Pending |
| Kyle Connor | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 77% | - | Pending |
| Leon Draisaitl | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | - | Pending |
Tickets: the games parlay (+297) hit.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 7 since Oct 1 | 12-7 | -1.64 u | -8.6% | 14-6 (70%) | 0-2 |
| MLB | 14 since Sep 30 | 14-14 | -3.93 u | -14.0% | 28-19 (60%) | 0-8 |
| NHL | 15 since Sep 30 | 40-20 | +3.71 u | +6.2% | 45-27 (62%) | 3-12 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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