Best Bets for Friday, October 9: WSH 56%, DET 56% and 2 More Picks Across the NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
4 picks to win on the Model Cards for Friday, October 9, across the NHL, plus 5 props. The firmest call is Washington Capitals at 56% (-148). Yesterday's cards: NFL 0-1, MLB 1-0, NHL 5-0 with the parlay hitting. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR at WSH | Lean | WSH | 56% | -148 | 57% | -1 | NHL | streak +8.0, expected goals (5v5) +2.0 |
| SEA at DET | Lean | DET | 56% | -142 | 56% | 0 | NHL | motivation +5.0, head to head +3.8 |
| ANA at WPG | Lean | WPG | 52% | -125 | 53% | -1 | NHL | motivation +5.0, venue +3.4 |
| PIT at CBJ | Lean | CBJ | 52% | -118 | 52% | 0 | NHL | motivation +5.0, rest +3.4 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Washington Capitals over New York Rangers, 56%, -148. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: streak (+8.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.0 points), expected goals (+0.9 points). The case against is power play (-3.4 points). The line WSH -1.5, total 5.5. NYR starter: Igor Shesterkin (projected). NYR out: Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. WSH starter: Logan Thompson. WSH out: Matt Roy, Rasmus Sandin.
Detroit Red Wings over Seattle Kraken, 56%, -142. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: motivation (+5.0 points), head to head (+3.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.7 points). The case against is streak (-5.8 points). The line DET -1.5, total 6.5. SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson. DET starter: John Gibson. DET out: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson, J.T. Compher.
Winnipeg Jets over Anaheim Ducks, 52%, -125. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: motivation (+5.0 points), venue (+3.4 points), shot margin (+2.9 points). The case against is streak (-9.7 points). The line WPG -1.5, total 6.5. ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Drew Helleson, Ian Moore, Troy Terry. WPG starter: Clay Stevenson (likely). WPG out: Connor Hellebuyck, Elias Salomonsson, Walker Duehr.
Columbus Blue Jackets over Pittsburgh Penguins, 52%, -118. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: motivation (+5.0 points), rest (+3.4 points), schedule load (+2.2 points). The case against is streak (-3.1 points). The line CBJ -1.5, total 6.5. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Andrei Kuzmenko, Justin Brazeau. CBJ starter: Cam Talbot.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch | Lock | WSH | NYR at WSH | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.8 | 89% | NHL |
| Kyle Connor | Play | WPG | ANA at WPG | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.8 | 74% | NHL |
| Dylan Larkin | Lean | DET | SEA at DET | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.2 | 69% | NHL |
| Jared McCann | Lean | SEA | SEA at DET | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.2 | 68% | NHL |
| Cutter Gauthier | Lean | ANA | ANA at WPG | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.5 | 67% | NHL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | Games | WSH; DET; WPG; CBJ | +850 | 9% | +1068 |
| NHL | Props | Alex Tuch over 1.5 shots on goal; Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots on goal; Dylan Larkin over 2.5 shots on goal; Jared McCann over 2.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots on goal | +383 (fair) | 21% | +383 |
| NHL | Best of both | WSH; DET; WPG; Alex Tuch over 1.5 shots on goal; Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots on goal; Dylan Larkin over 2.5 shots on goal | +1033 | 7% | +1239 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA at WPG | NHL | WPG without Salomonsson; ANA without Terry, Moore | 0.9 pts toward WPG |
| SEA at DET | NHL | DET without Edvinsson, Kasper | 0.8 pts against DET |
| NYR at WSH | NHL | WSH without Sandin, Roy; NYR without Sykora | 0.4 pts against WSH |
| PIT at CBJ | NHL | PIT without Kuzmenko | 0.4 pts toward CBJ |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | NHL | 3.1K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | SEA at DET | DET 56% (our pick is the other side) |
| ANA | NHL | 2.5K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | ANA at WPG | WPG 52% (our pick is the other side) |
| WPG | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | ANA at WPG | WPG 52% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 8)
NFL: 0-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL | DAL | 72% | -500 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | Over 296.5 passing yards | 65% | 316 | Hit |
| Javonte Williams | Over 60.5 rushing yards | 66% | 45 | Miss |
Tickets: the props parlay (+134) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+181) missed.
MLB: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at CWS | CLE | 51% | -117 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 67% | 5 | Hit |
| Jo Adell | Over 0.5 hits | 65% | 1 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (+128) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+323) hit.
NHL: 5-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at CAR | CAR | 68% | -340 | Hit |
| CHI at NYI | NYI | 63% | -185 | Hit |
| PHI at OTT | OTT | 61% | -180 | Hit |
| COL at CGY | COL | 64% | -238 | Hit |
| TOR at VGK | VGK | 60% | -170 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 72% | 1 | Miss |
| Tage Thompson | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 87% | 6 | Hit |
| Steven Stamkos | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 72% | 2 | Miss |
| Macklin Celebrini | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 73% | - | Pending |
| Jack Eichel | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 90% | 6 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+599) hit; the props parlay (+232) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 4 since Oct 1 | 6-4 | -1.08 u | -10.8% | 7-4 (64%) | 0-1 |
| MLB | 8 since Sep 30 | 10-10 | -3.12 u | -15.6% | 21-10 (68%) | 0-6 |
| NHL | 8 since Sep 30 | 21-9 | +4.07 u | +13.6% | 28-11 (72%) | 2-6 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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