Best Bets for Thursday, October 8: DAL 71%, CAR 68% and 7 More Picks Across the NFL, MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
9 picks to win on the Model Cards for Thursday, October 8, across the NFL, MLB and NHL, plus 9 props. The firmest call is Dallas Cowboys at 71% (-470). Yesterday's cards: MLB 1-3, NHL 2-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL | Lock | DAL | 71% | -470 | 79% | -8 | NFL | offense +6.9, quarterback +4.4 |
| VAN at CAR | Lock | CAR | 68% | -340 | 74% | -6 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +11.7, shot share (Corsi) +10.4 |
| COL at CGY | Play | COL | 64% | -238 | 68% | -3 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +9.3, goal margin +9.2 |
| CHI at NYI | Play | NYI | 63% | -185 | 62% | +1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.1, streak +5.5 |
| TOR at VGK | Play | VGK | 60% | -170 | 60% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +8.1, shot share (Corsi) +7.7 |
| NSH at MTL | Play | MTL | 59% | -180 | 62% | -3 | NHL | streak +5.7, head to head +3.8 |
| MIN at TBL | Play | TBL | 58% | -142 | 56% | +2 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +5.9, venue +4.9 |
| PHI at OTT | Play | OTT | 58% | -180 | 62% | -4 | NHL | goal margin +6.8, expected goals (5v5) +6.2 |
| CLE at CWS | Lean | CLE | 51% | -116 | 51% | 0 | MLB | venue +5.1, umpire +0.8 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on CLE at CWS: it makes the game 8.0 runs against a posted 7.
Why each pick
Dallas Cowboys over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 71%, -470. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: offense (+6.9 points), quarterback (+4.4 points), point margin (+4.1 points). The case against is epa per play (-4.0 points). The market is 8 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DAL as the more likely winner. The line DAL -8.5, total 48.5. TB starter: Jalon Daniels. TB out: Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield Jr., Benjamin Morrison, SirVocea Dennis. DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: Cobie Durant, DeMarvion Overshown, Drew Shelton, Jalen Thompson, Jonathan Bullard.
Carolina Hurricanes over Vancouver Canucks, 68%, -340. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.7 points), shot share (Corsi) (+10.4 points), venue (+5.0 points). The case against is streak (-7.1 points). The market is 6 points firmer on it than we are; we still have CAR as the more likely winner. The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (likely). CAR out: Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis.
Colorado Avalanche over Calgary Flames, 64%, -238. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.3 points), goal margin (+9.2 points), shot share (Corsi) (+7.4 points). The case against is back to back (-7.4 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have COL as the more likely winner. The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. COL starter: Scott Wedgewood (projected). COL out: Trent Miner, Georgii Merkulov, Logan O'Connor. COL is on the second of a back to back. CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau.
New York Islanders over Chicago Blackhawks, 63%, -185. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.1 points), streak (+5.5 points), goal margin (+5.0 points). The case against is home/road split (-3.1 points). The line NYI -1.5, total 5.5. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (projected). CHI out: Connor Bedard, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrew Mangiapane. NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin. NYI out: Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov.
Vegas Golden Knights over Toronto Maple Leafs, 60%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.1 points), shot share (Corsi) (+7.7 points), motivation (+4.8 points). The case against is streak (-3.0 points). The line VGK -1.5, total 6.5. TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, Max Domi. VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected).
Montréal Canadiens over Nashville Predators, 59%, -180. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: streak (+5.7 points), head to head (+3.8 points), shot margin (+1.1 points). The case against is venue (-4.7 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have MTL as the more likely winner. The line MTL -1.5, total 6.5. NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). NSH out: Justus Annunen. MTL starter: Jacob Fowler. MTL out: Kaiden Guhle, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.
Tampa Bay Lightning over Minnesota Wild, 58%, -142. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.9 points), venue (+4.9 points), shot share (Corsi) (+4.6 points). The case against is streak (-3.1 points). The line TBL -1.5, total 6.5. MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber. TBL starter: Dennis Hildeby (likely).
Ottawa Senators over Philadelphia Flyers, 58%, -180. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+6.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+6.2 points), shot share (Corsi) (+5.6 points). The case against is home/road split (-3.2 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have OTT as the more likely winner. The line OTT -1.5, total 5.5. PHI starter: Joseph Woll (projected). PHI out: Helge Grans, Nikita Grebenkin. OTT starter: Linus Ullmark. OTT out: Artem Zub, Andre Burakovsky, Kurtis MacDermid.
Cleveland Guardians over Chicago White Sox, 51%, -116. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: venue (+5.1 points), umpire (+0.8 points), motivation (+0.5 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.1 points). The line CWS -1.5, total 7.5. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins. CWS out: Jordan Leasure, Ky Bush, Luis Castillo, Mike Vasil, Prelander Berroa.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | Lock | VGK | TOR at VGK | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.9 | 90% | NHL |
| Tage Thompson | Lock | BUF | DAL at BUF | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.3 | 87% | NHL |
| Macklin Celebrini | Play | SJS | SJS at STL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 73% | NHL |
| Steven Stamkos | Play | NSH | NSH at MTL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 72% | NHL |
| Sebastian Aho | Play | CAR | VAN at CAR | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 72% | NHL |
| Parker Messick | Lean | CLE | CLE at CWS | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 5.5 | 67% | MLB |
| Jalon Daniels | Lean | TB | TB at DAL | Over 168.5 passing yards | 193.8 | 65% | NFL |
| Dak Prescott | Lean | DAL | TB at DAL | Over 286.5 passing yards | 329.1 | 65% | NFL |
| Jo Adell | Lean | CLE | CLE at CWS | Over 0.5 hits | 1.1 | 65% | MLB |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Jalon Daniels over 168.5 passing yards; Dak Prescott over 286.5 passing yards | +135 (fair) | 43% | +135 |
| NFL | Best of both | DAL; Jalon Daniels over 168.5 passing yards; Dak Prescott over 286.5 passing yards | +185 | 30% | +229 |
| MLB | Props | Parker Messick over 4.5 strikeouts; Jo Adell over 0.5 hits | +128 (fair) | 44% | +128 |
| MLB | Best of both | CLE; Parker Messick over 4.5 strikeouts; Jo Adell over 0.5 hits | +325 | 23% | +344 |
| NHL | Games | CAR; COL; NYI; VGK; MTL; TBL; OTT | +1754 | 3% | +2903 |
| NHL | Props | Jack Eichel over 1.5 shots on goal; Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal; Macklin Celebrini over 2.5 shots on goal; Steven Stamkos over 2.5 shots on goal; Sebastian Aho over 2.5 shots on goal | +232 (fair) | 30% | +232 |
| NHL | Best of both | CAR; COL; NYI; Jack Eichel over 1.5 shots on goal; Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal; Macklin Celebrini over 2.5 shots on goal | +391 | 16% | +530 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL | NFL | DAL | 71% | 79% | -8 |
| VAN at CAR | NHL | CAR | 68% | 74% | -6 |
| COL at CGY | NHL | COL | 64% | 68% | -3 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSH at MTL | NHL | MTL without Demidov, Guhle | 0.9 pts against MTL |
| MIN at TBL | NHL | MIN without Faber | 0.8 pts toward TBL |
| CHI at NYI | NHL | NYI without Barzal; CHI without Bedard, Teravainen | 0.7 pts toward NYI |
| VAN at CAR | NHL | CAR without Jarvis, Nikishin; VAN without Chytil | 0.6 pts against CAR |
| SJS at STL | NHL | STL without Mailloux, Tucker | 0.6 pts against STL |
| COL at CGY | NHL | CGY without Huberdeau | 0.6 pts toward COL |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, road game 4 | UTA at BOS | UTA 53% (our pick) |
| PHI | NHL | 2.0K km since the last game | PHI at OTT | OTT 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| VAN | NHL | 3.9K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | VAN at CAR | CAR 68% (our pick is the other side) |
| COL | NHL | second of a back to back | COL at CGY | COL 64% (our pick) |
| TOR | NHL | 3.1K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | TOR at VGK | VGK 60% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 7)
MLB: 1-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at ATL | LAD | 57% | -156 | Hit |
| CLE at CWS | CWS | 53% | -126 | Miss |
| TB at NYY | NYY | 60% | -174 | Miss |
| MIL at SD | SD | 51% | -112 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | Over 6.5 strikeouts | 68% | 5 | Miss |
| Tyler Mahle | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 75% | 4 | Hit |
| Max Fried | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 84% | 7 | Hit |
| Nick Martinez | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 80% | 3 | Hit |
| Walker Buehler | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 87% | 0 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+777) missed; the props parlay (+233) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+688) missed.
NHL: 2-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at WPG | COL | 60% | -192 | Miss |
| PIT at WSH | WSH | 58% | -162 | Hit |
| EDM at ANA | EDM | 52% | -135 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 70% | 1 | Miss |
| Evan Bouchard | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 65% | 4 | Hit |
| Kyle Connor | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 80% | 4 | Hit |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 70% | 1 | Miss |
| Evgeni Malkin | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 82% | 1 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+328) missed; the props parlay (+373) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+827) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 3 since Oct 1 | 6-3 | -0.08 u | -0.9% | 6-3 (67%) | 0-1 |
| MLB | 7 since Sep 30 | 9-10 | -3.98 u | -20.9% | 19-10 (66%) | 0-6 |
| NHL | 8 since Sep 30 | 21-9 | +4.07 u | +13.6% | 28-11 (72%) | 2-6 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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