Best Bets for Saturday, October 10: NJD 68%, CAR 68% and 6 More Picks Across the MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
8 picks to win on the Model Cards for Saturday, October 10, across the MLB and NHL, plus 7 props. The firmest call is New Jersey Devils at 68% (-298). Yesterday's cards: NHL 2-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NJD | Lock | NJD | 68% | -298 | 72% | -4 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +8.4, shot share (Corsi) +4.1 |
| CAR at CHI | Lock | CAR | 68% | -245 | 68% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +13.9, shot share (Corsi) +12.0 |
| TOR at COL | Lock | COL | 66% | -218 | 66% | 0 | NHL | shot share (Corsi) +10.8, expected goals (5v5) +9.6 |
| DET at MTL | Play | MTL | 61% | -198 | 64% | -2 | NHL | back to back +7.0, rest +6.6 |
| DAL at PIT | Play | DAL | 60% | -180 | 62% | -1 | NHL | back to back +7.1, rest +6.6 |
| TBL at NYI | Play | TBL | 59% | -170 | 60% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.5, shot share (Corsi) +3.4 |
| LAK at VGK | Play | VGK | 59% | -162 | 59% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +6.9, recent form +4.3 |
| CWS at CLE | Lean | CLE | 55% | -142 | 56% | -1 | MLB | home/road split +1.5, venue +1.0 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on CWS at CLE: it makes the game 8.4 runs against a posted 7.
Why each pick
New Jersey Devils over Vancouver Canucks, 68%, -298. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.4 points), shot share (Corsi) (+4.1 points), rest (+3.0 points). The case against is venue (-2.8 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have NJD as the more likely winner. The line NJD -1.5, total 6.5. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. NJD starter: Jake Allen (projected).
Carolina Hurricanes over Chicago Blackhawks, 68%, -245. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+13.9 points), shot share (Corsi) (+12.0 points), goal margin (+6.3 points). The case against is streak (-8.5 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 5.5. CAR starter: Brandon Bussi (projected). CAR out: Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, Andrew Mangiapane.
Colorado Avalanche over Toronto Maple Leafs, 66%, -218. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: shot share (Corsi) (+10.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+9.6 points), goal margin (+6.0 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.7 points). The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Trent Miner, Georgii Merkulov, Logan O'Connor.
Montréal Canadiens over Detroit Red Wings, 61%, -198. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.0 points), rest (+6.6 points), home/road split (+3.1 points). The case against is venue (-4.7 points). The line MTL -1.5, total 6.5. DET starter: Daniil Tarasov. DET out: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson, J.T. Compher. DET is on the second of a back to back. MTL starter: Jacob Fowler. MTL out: Florian Xhekaj, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.
Dallas Stars over Pittsburgh Penguins, 60%, -180. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.1 points), rest (+6.6 points), motivation (+4.4 points). The case against is streak (-3.0 points). The line DAL -1.5, total 6.5. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (likely). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Luke Krys, Joel Kiviranta. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Andrei Kuzmenko, Justin Brazeau. PIT is on the second of a back to back.
Tampa Bay Lightning over New York Islanders, 59%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.5 points), shot share (Corsi) (+3.4 points), home/road split (+3.2 points). The case against is streak (-5.7 points). The line TBL -1.5, total 5.5. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected). NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin. NYI out: Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov.
Vegas Golden Knights over Los Angeles Kings, 59%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+6.9 points), recent form (+4.3 points), power play (+3.6 points). The case against is streak (-9.5 points). The line VGK -1.5, total 6.5. LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected). VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). VGK out: Victor Olofsson.
Cleveland Guardians over Chicago White Sox, 55%, -142. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: home/road split (+1.5 points), venue (+1.0 points), motivation (+0.5 points). The case against is clutch hitting (-0.7 points). The line CLE -1.5, total 7. CWS out: Jordan Leasure, Ky Bush, Luis Castillo, Mike Vasil, Prelander Berroa. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | Lock | VGK | LAK at VGK | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.9 | 91% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | EDM at SJS | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.5 | 86% | NHL |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Lock | COL | TOR at COL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4 | 82% | NHL |
| Sean Burke | Play | CWS | CWS at CLE | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 5.9 | 73% | MLB |
| Tage Thompson | Play | BUF | UTA at BUF | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.7 | 72% | NHL |
| Gavin Williams | Lean | CLE | CWS at CLE | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 6.9 | 70% | MLB |
| Evan Bouchard | Lean | EDM | EDM at SJS | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 66% | NHL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Props | Sean Burke over 4.5 strikeouts; Gavin Williams over 5.5 strikeouts | -105 (fair) | 51% | -105 |
| MLB | Best of both | CLE; Sean Burke over 4.5 strikeouts; Gavin Williams over 5.5 strikeouts | +232 | 28% | +252 |
| NHL | Games | NJD; CAR; COL; MTL; DAL; TBL; VGK | +1550 | 4% | +2491 |
| NHL | Props | Jack Eichel over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 2.5 shots on goal; Tage Thompson over 3.5 shots on goal; Evan Bouchard over 2.5 shots on goal | +227 (fair) | 31% | +227 |
| NHL | Best of both | NJD; CAR; COL; Jack Eichel over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 2.5 shots on goal | +325 | 19% | +415 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NJD | NHL | NJD | 68% | 72% | -4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDM at SJS | NHL | EDM without Hyman, Savoie | 1.7 pts against EDM |
| CAR at CHI | NHL | CHI without Bedard, Nazar; CAR without Jarvis, Nikishin | 1.5 pts toward CAR |
| TOR at COL | NHL | TOR without Tavares, Joshua | 1.4 pts toward COL |
| MIN at FLA | NHL | FLA without Marchand, Barkov; MIN without Faber | 1.3 pts against FLA |
| TBL at NYI | NHL | NYI without Barzal | 0.8 pts toward TBL |
| NSH at OTT | NHL | OTT without Eklund, Zub | 0.8 pts against OTT |
| UTA at BUF | NHL | BUF without Zucker, Timmins; UTA without Lamoureux | 0.6 pts against BUF |
| CBJ at STL | NHL | STL without Mailloux, Tucker | 0.5 pts against STL |
| LAK at VGK | NHL | VGK without Olofsson | 0.5 pts against VGK |
| ANA at CGY | NHL | CGY without Huberdeau; ANA without Terry, Moore | 0.4 pts against ANA |
| VAN at NJD | NHL | VAN without Chytil | 0.4 pts toward NJD |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | NHL | second of a back to back | CBJ at STL | STL 54% (our pick is the other side) |
| ANA | NHL | second of a back to back | ANA at CGY | ANA 51% (our pick) |
| SJS | NHL | 2.8K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | EDM at SJS | EDM 58% (our pick is the other side) |
| FLA | NHL | 3.7K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | MIN at FLA | FLA 55% (our pick) |
| UTA | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, road game 5 | UTA at BUF | BUF 50.1% (our pick is the other side) |
| DET | NHL | second of a back to back | DET at MTL | MTL 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| OTT | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | NSH at OTT | OTT 59% (our pick) |
| PIT | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | DAL at PIT | DAL 60% (our pick is the other side) |
The NFL card for Sunday, October 11 is already posted: JAX 75% (-395), MIN 67% (-142), HOU 66% (-355), CLE 66% (+114), DET 65% (-250), CIN 63% (-355), DEN 61% (-192).
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 9)
NHL: 2-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR at WSH | WSH | 56% | -142 | Hit |
| SEA at DET | DET | 56% | -142 | Miss |
| PIT at CBJ | CBJ | 52% | -112 | Hit |
| ANA at WPG | WPG | 52% | -125 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 74% | 3 | Miss |
| Dylan Larkin | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 69% | 1 | Miss |
| Cutter Gauthier | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 67% | 1 | Miss |
| Alex Tuch | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 89% | 2 | Hit |
| Jared McCann | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 68% | 0 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+890) missed; the props parlay (+383) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+1112) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 4 since Oct 1 | 6-4 | -1.08 u | -10.8% | 7-4 (64%) | 0-1 |
| MLB | 8 since Sep 30 | 10-10 | -3.12 u | -15.6% | 21-10 (68%) | 0-6 |
| NHL | 10 since Sep 30 | 28-11 | +6.07 u | +15.6% | 31-17 (65%) | 3-7 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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