Best Bets for Tuesday, October 13: NYI 64%, PIT 61% and 5 More Picks Across the MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
7 picks to win on the Model Cards for Tuesday, October 13, across the MLB and NHL, plus 7 props. The firmest call is New York Islanders at 64% (-218). Yesterday's cards: NFL 0-1, MLB 0-2, NHL 1-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NYI | Play | NYI | 64% | -218 | 66% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +6.4, goal margin +4.4 |
| PIT at CHI | Play | PIT | 61% | -162 | 59% | +1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +11.3, goal margin +6.0 |
| CGY at ANA | Play | ANA | 60% | -175 | 61% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +7.3, shot share (Corsi) +2.6 |
| TOR at UTA | Play | UTA | 60% | -162 | 59% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +9.2, shot share (Corsi) +6.0 |
| TBL at NYR | Play | TBL | 59% | -162 | 59% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.6, shot share (Corsi) +3.5 |
| WSH at CAR | Play | CAR | 59% | -155 | 58% | +1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +9.0, shot share (Corsi) +8.2 |
| CLE at TB | Lean | TB | 56% | -132 | 54% | +1 | MLB | home/road split +3.7, venue +3.4 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on CLE at TB: it makes the game 8.1 runs against a posted 7.
Why each pick
New York Islanders over Vancouver Canucks, 64%, -218. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.4 points), goal margin (+4.4 points), goalies (+2.1 points). The case against is power play (-2.6 points). The line NYI -1.5, total 6.5. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin. NYI out: Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov.
Pittsburgh Penguins over Chicago Blackhawks, 61%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.3 points), goal margin (+6.0 points), venue (+4.8 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-2.1 points). The line PIT -1.5, total 6.5. PIT starter: Sergei Murashov (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Andrei Kuzmenko, Justin Brazeau. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Frank Nazar, Andrew Mangiapane.
Anaheim Ducks over Calgary Flames, 60%, -175. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+7.3 points), shot share (Corsi) (+2.6 points), head to head (+2.1 points). The case against is venue (-4.3 points). The line ANA -1.5, total 6.5. CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek. ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Drew Helleson, Ian Moore, Troy Terry.
Utah Mammoth over Toronto Maple Leafs, 60%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.2 points), shot share (Corsi) (+6.0 points), goal margin (+1.8 points). The case against is venue (-1.6 points). The line UTA -1.5, total 6.5. TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, Max Domi, Chris Tanev. UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone.
Tampa Bay Lightning over New York Rangers, 59%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.6 points), shot share (Corsi) (+3.5 points), rest (+2.2 points). The case against is goalies (-2.5 points). The line TBL -1.5, total 5.5. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (likely). NYR starter: Dylan Garand. NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.
Carolina Hurricanes over Washington Capitals, 59%, -155. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.0 points), shot share (Corsi) (+8.2 points), venue (+4.8 points). The case against is shot margin (-1.7 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. WSH starter: Logan Thompson (projected). WSH out: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matt Roy, Rasmus Sandin. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (likely). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis.
Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Guardians, 56%, -132. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: home/road split (+3.7 points), venue (+3.4 points), record (+1.1 points). The case against is starting pitchers (-2.0 points). The line TB -1.5, total 7. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | Lock | CAR | WSH at CAR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 93% | NHL |
| Evan Bouchard | Lock | EDM | EDM at LAK | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 92% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | EDM at LAK | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.6 | 87% | NHL |
| Kyle Connor | Lock | WPG | MIN at WPG | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.3 | 86% | NHL |
| Parker Messick | Lean | CLE | CLE at TB | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 5.5 | 67% | MLB |
| Freddy Peralta | Lean | TB | CLE at TB | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 4.2 | 66% | MLB |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Lean | COL | COL at DAL | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.4 | 66% | NHL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Props | Parker Messick over 4.5 strikeouts; Freddy Peralta over 3.5 strikeouts | +126 (fair) | 44% | +126 |
| MLB | Best of both | TB; Parker Messick over 4.5 strikeouts; Freddy Peralta over 3.5 strikeouts | +297 | 25% | +305 |
| NHL | Games | NYI; PIT; ANA; UTA; TBL; CAR | +1495 | 5% | +1928 |
| NHL | Props | Sebastian Aho over 1.5 shots on goal; Evan Bouchard over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Kyle Connor over 2.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 3.5 shots on goal | +138 (fair) | 42% | +138 |
| NHL | Best of both | NYI; PIT; ANA; Sebastian Aho over 1.5 shots on goal; Evan Bouchard over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal | +398 | 18% | +469 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLA at CBJ | NHL | FLA without Marchand, Barkov | 1.8 pts toward CBJ |
| BUF at MTL | NHL | MTL without Demidov, Matheson; BUF without Dahlin, Zucker | 1.2 pts toward MTL |
| STL at OTT | NHL | OTT without Sanderson, Eklund; STL without Mailloux, Tucker | 1.1 pts against OTT |
| SEA at PHI | NHL | PHI without Konecny, Ristolainen | 1.1 pts against PHI |
| EDM at LAK | NHL | EDM without Savoie, Nugent-Hopkins | 0.9 pts against EDM |
| PIT at CHI | NHL | CHI without Nazar; PIT without Kuzmenko | 0.8 pts toward PIT |
| COL at DAL | NHL | DAL without Duchene | 0.7 pts toward COL |
| NJD at DET | NHL | DET without Edvinsson, Kasper | 0.7 pts against DET |
| MIN at WPG | NHL | WPG without Salomonsson; MIN without Faber, Foligno | 0.7 pts toward WPG |
| TOR at UTA | NHL | UTA without Carcone, Lamoureux; TOR without Joshua, Domi | 0.4 pts against UTA |
| VAN at NYI | NHL | NYI without Barzal; VAN without Chytil | 0.4 pts against NYI |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | NHL | 2.7K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | TOR at UTA | UTA 60% (our pick) |
| BOS | NHL | 4.3K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | BOS at SJS | BOS 53% (our pick) |
| BUF | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | BUF at MTL | MTL 57% (our pick is the other side) |
| CAR | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | WSH at CAR | CAR 59% (our pick) |
| NJD | NHL | second of a back to back | NJD at DET | DET 52% (our pick is the other side) |
| FLA | NHL | second of a back to back | FLA at CBJ | CBJ 56% (our pick is the other side) |
| MIN | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | MIN at WPG | WPG 52% (our pick is the other side) |
| VGK | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | VGK at NSH | VGK 53% (our pick) |
| VAN | NHL | road game 4 | VAN at NYI | NYI 64% (our pick is the other side) |
| OTT | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | STL at OTT | OTT 50.1% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 12)
NFL: 0-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at LAR | LAR | 60% | -185 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | Over 264.5 passing yards | 65% | 383 | Hit |
| Josh Allen | Over 201.5 passing yards | 66% | 210 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (+134) hit.
MLB: 0-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at MIL | LAD | 56% | -136 | Miss |
| CLE at TB | TB | 60% | -169 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 74% | 1 | Miss |
| Logan Henderson | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 72% | 2 | Miss |
| Drew Rasmussen | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 81% | 7 | Hit |
| Foster Griffin | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 82% | 3 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+176) missed; the props parlay (+183) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+460) missed.
NHL: 1-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA at BUF | BUF | 51% | -115 | Hit |
| OTT at NJD | NJD | 52% | -122 | Miss |
| VGK at MIN | VGK | 51% | -108 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 71% | 1 | Miss |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 89% | 4 | Hit |
| Jack Eichel | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 2 | Hit |
| Tim Stützle | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 75% | 1 | Miss |
| Jack Hughes | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 70% | 2 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+555) missed; the props parlay (+225) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+962) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 6 since Oct 1 | 12-6 | -0.64 u | -3.6% | 12-6 (67%) | 0-2 |
| MLB | 11 since Sep 30 | 12-12 | -3.49 u | -14.5% | 24-15 (62%) | 0-7 |
| NHL | 13 since Sep 30 | 36-16 | +5.13 u | +9.9% | 40-23 (64%) | 3-10 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.