Best Bets for Saturday, October 17: TBL 68%, DAL 65% and 5 More Picks Across the MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
7 picks to win on the Model Cards for Saturday, October 17, across the MLB and NHL, plus 7 props. The firmest call is Tampa Bay Lightning at 68% (-395). Yesterday's cards: NHL 2-0 with the parlay hitting. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at TBL | Lock | TBL | 68% | -395 | 77% | -9 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +11.1, goalies +4.2 |
| DAL at CHI | Play | DAL | 65% | -218 | 66% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +9.4, venue +4.6 |
| PIT at VGK | Play | VGK | 64% | -205 | 64% | 0 | NHL | back to back +6.8, rest +6.3 |
| CAR at WPG | Play | CAR | 64% | -205 | 64% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +10.7, shot share (Corsi) +7.8 |
| SEA at FLA | Play | FLA | 61% | -185 | 62% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.8, shot share (Corsi) +5.9 |
| OTT at PHI | Play | OTT | 59% | -155 | 58% | +1 | NHL | goal margin +6.8, expected goals (5v5) +6.0 |
| TB at CLE | Lean | TB | 51% | -114 | 51% | 0 | MLB | starting pitchers +3.8, record +1.1 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on TB at CLE: it makes the game 7.2 runs against a posted 6.5.
Why each pick
Tampa Bay Lightning over Vancouver Canucks, 68%, -395. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.1 points), goalies (+4.2 points), goal margin (+4.1 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-1.8 points). The market is 9 points firmer on it than we are; we still have TBL as the more likely winner. The line TBL -1.5, total 6.5. VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Mackenzie MacEachern. TBL starter: Dennis Hildeby (projected).
Dallas Stars over Chicago Blackhawks, 65%, -218. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.4 points), venue (+4.6 points), power play (+4.4 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-2.2 points). The line DAL -1.5, total 6.5. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Luke Krys. CHI starter: Spencer Knight. CHI out: Bowen Byram, Andrew Mangiapane.
Vegas Golden Knights over Pittsburgh Penguins, 64%, -205. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+6.8 points), rest (+6.3 points), goal margin (+4.0 points). The case against is goalies (-1.8 points). The line VGK -1.5, total 6.5. PIT starter: Sergei Murashov (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Justin Brazeau. PIT is on the second of a back to back. VGK starter: Adin Hill (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon.
Carolina Hurricanes over Winnipeg Jets, 64%, -205. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+10.7 points), shot share (Corsi) (+7.8 points), goal margin (+3.7 points). The case against is venue (-2.7 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis, Taylor Hall. WPG starter: Clay Stevenson (likely). WPG out: Connor Hellebuyck, Vladislav Namestnikov, Elias Salomonsson, Josh Morrissey, Walker Duehr.
Florida Panthers over Seattle Kraken, 61%, -185. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.8 points), shot share (Corsi) (+5.9 points), venue (+3.2 points). The case against is goal margin (-2.9 points). The line FLA -1.5, total 6.5. SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson. FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Radko Gudas, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.
Ottawa Senators over Philadelphia Flyers, 59%, -155. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+6.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+6.0 points), shot share (Corsi) (+4.4 points). The case against is recent form (-1.6 points). The line OTT -1.5, total 5.5. OTT starter: Linus Ullmark (projected). OTT out: Jake Sanderson, Kurtis MacDermid, William Eklund. PHI starter: Dan Vladar. PHI out: Cam York, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin, Travis Konecny.
Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Guardians, 51%, -114. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: starting pitchers (+3.8 points), record (+1.1 points), clutch hitting (+1.0 points). The case against is run margin (-1.1 points). The line CLE -1.5, total 6.5. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | EDM at UTA | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.7 | 88% | NHL |
| Brandon Hagel | Play | TBL | VAN at TBL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.8 | 80% | NHL |
| Nick Martinez | Play | TB | TB at CLE | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 3.5 | 77% | MLB |
| Alexis Lafrenière | Play | NYR | NYR at CBJ | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.1 | 75% | NHL |
| Brady Tkachuk | Play | FLA | SEA at FLA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 74% | NHL |
| José Ramírez | Play | CLE | TB at CLE | Over 0.5 hits | 1.3 | 72% | MLB |
| Auston Matthews | Lean | TOR | NYI at TOR | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 66% | NHL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Props | Nick Martinez over 2.5 strikeouts; José Ramírez over 0.5 hits | -127 (fair) | 56% | -127 |
| MLB | Best of both | TB; Nick Martinez over 2.5 strikeouts; José Ramírez over 0.5 hits | +236 | 28% | +252 |
| NHL | Games | TBL; DAL; VGK; CAR; FLA; OTT | +926 | 6% | +1446 |
| NHL | Props | Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Brandon Hagel over 2.5 shots on goal; Alexis Lafrenière over 1.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal; Auston Matthews over 2.5 shots on goal | +288 (fair) | 26% | +288 |
| NHL | Best of both | TBL; DAL; VGK; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Brandon Hagel over 2.5 shots on goal; Alexis Lafrenière over 1.5 shots on goal | +415 | 15% | +570 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at TBL | NHL | TBL | 68% | 77% | -9 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at MTL | NHL | MTL without Demidov; BUF without Dahlin, Zucker | 1.4 pts toward MTL |
| SEA at FLA | NHL | FLA without Marchand, Barkov | 1.4 pts against FLA |
| NJD at WSH | NHL | WSH without Dubois, Sandin | 1.0 pts against WSH |
| NYI at TOR | NHL | TOR without Tavares, Joshua; NYI without Barzal | 0.7 pts against TOR |
| SJS at DET | NHL | DET without Edvinsson, Kasper | 0.7 pts against DET |
| CAR at WPG | NHL | WPG without Morrissey, Namestnikov; CAR without Jarvis, Hall | 0.5 pts against CAR |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | NJD at WSH | WSH 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| BOS | NHL | second of a back to back | BOS at LAK | LAK 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| BUF | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | BUF at MTL | MTL 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| CAR | NHL | 2.2K km since the last game | CAR at WPG | CAR 64% (our pick) |
| SEA | NHL | road game 5 | SEA at FLA | FLA 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| FLA | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | SEA at FLA | FLA 61% (our pick) |
| OTT | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | OTT at PHI | OTT 59% (our pick) |
| PHI | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | OTT at PHI | OTT 59% (our pick is the other side) |
| PIT | NHL | second of a back to back | PIT at VGK | VGK 64% (our pick is the other side) |
| VGK | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | PIT at VGK | VGK 64% (our pick) |
| VAN | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, road game 6 | VAN at TBL | TBL 68% (our pick is the other side) |
The NFL card for Sunday, October 18 is already posted: LAR 81% (-750), KC 78% (-440), NE 73% (-345), IND 72% (-340), JAX 68% (-148), BUF 67% (-225), GB 65% (-118).
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 16)
MLB
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at CLE | TB | 50.3% | -114 | Pending |
NHL: 2-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at COL | COL | 63% | -205 | Hit |
| BOS at ANA | BOS | 51% | -112 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 75% | 9 | Hit |
| David Pastrnak | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 76% | 4 | Hit |
| Cale Makar | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 90% | 2 | Hit |
| Beckett Sennecke | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 85% | 1 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+182) hit; the props parlay (+131) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+387) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 7 since Oct 1 | 12-7 | -1.64 u | -8.6% | 14-6 (70%) | 0-2 |
| MLB | 14 since Sep 30 | 14-14 | -3.93 u | -14.0% | 28-19 (60%) | 0-8 |
| NHL | 17 since Sep 30 | 46-20 | +6.75 u | +10.2% | 52-29 (64%) | 5-12 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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