Best Bets for Sunday, October 18: LAR 80%, KC 78% and 8 More Picks Across the NFL, MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
10 picks to win on the Model Cards for Sunday, October 18, across the NFL, MLB and NHL, plus 11 props. The firmest call is Los Angeles Rams at 80% (-800). Yesterday's cards: MLB 1-0, NHL 5-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI at LAR | Lock | LAR | 80% | -800 | 85% | -5 | NFL | epa per play +18.4, point margin +8.0 |
| LAC at KC | Lock | KC | 78% | -425 | 78% | 0 | NFL | epa per play +15.8, point margin +8.6 |
| NYJ at NE | Lock | NE | 76% | -345 | 74% | +1 | NFL | epa per play +18.3, point margin +7.5 |
| TEN at IND | Lock | IND | 69% | -290 | 71% | -2 | NFL | epa per play +20.3, point margin +8.9 |
| HOU at JAX | Lock | JAX | 67% | -148 | 57% | +10 | NFL | - |
| BUF at LV | Lock | BUF | 67% | -245 | 68% | -1 | NFL | epa per play +24.3, point margin +8.3 |
| DAL at GB | Lock | GB | 65% | -115 | 51% | +14 | NFL | epa per play +17.4, motivation +2.4 |
| CAR at CGY | Play | CAR | 64% | -218 | 66% | -2 | NHL | expected goals +11.0, expected goals (5v5) +10.0 |
| CBJ at MIN | Play | MIN | 62% | -192 | 63% | -1 | NHL | back to back +7.0, rest +6.2 |
| TB at CLE | Lean | TB | 55% | -132 | 54% | 0 | MLB | record +1.1, clutch hitting +1.0 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on TB at CLE: it makes the game 7.0 runs against a posted 6.5.
Why each pick
Los Angeles Rams over Arizona Cardinals, 80%, -800. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+18.4 points), point margin (+8.0 points), yards margin (+4.4 points). The case against is defense (-1.3 points). The market is 5 points firmer on it than we are; we still have LAR as the more likely winner. The line LAR -12.5, total 51.5. ARI starter: Jacoby Brissett. ARI out: James Conner, Jeremiyah Love, Andrew Wingard, Wydett Williams Jr. LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Alaric Jackson, Myles Garrett.
Kansas City Chiefs over Los Angeles Chargers, 78%, -425. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+15.8 points), point margin (+8.6 points), offense (+4.1 points). The case against is injuries (KC without Rice, Thornton; LAC without Harris) (-3.7 points). The line KC -7.5, total 41.5. LAC starter: Justin Herbert. LAC out: Tre' Harris, Alec Ingold, Denzel Perryman, Derwin James Jr., Donte Jackson. KC starter: Patrick Mahomes. KC out: Rashee Rice, Tyquan Thornton, Josh Simmons. Crew: Alan Eck has been friendly to KC (-1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 2-1 in 3 games).
New England Patriots over New York Jets, 76%, -345. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+18.3 points), point margin (+7.5 points), injuries (NYJ without Hall, Mitchell) (+4.8 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.2 points). The line NE -7.5, total 43.5. NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, Dylan Parham, Jack Heflin, Joseph Ossai. NE starter: Drake Maye. NE out: Behren Morton, Tanner Arkin, Carlton Davis III, Channing Canada, Dametrious Crownover.
Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee Titans, 69%, -290. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+20.3 points), point margin (+8.9 points), offense (+6.3 points). The case against is injuries (IND without Pierce, Warren) (-5.4 points). The line IND -6.5, total 43.5. TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Nicholas Singleton, Kylen Granson, Alontae Taylor, Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, Jackie Marshall. IND starter: Daniel Jones. IND out: Riley Leonard, Alec Pierce, Ashton Dulin, Tyler Warren, Arden Key. Crew: Bill Vinovich has been friendly to IND (-2.3 flags a game versus its norm, 1-3 in 4 games).
Jacksonville Jaguars over Houston Texans, 67%, -148. Lock on the NFL card. We like this side 10 points more than the price does.
Buffalo Bills over Las Vegas Raiders, 67%, -245. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+24.3 points), point margin (+8.3 points), offense (+5.7 points). The case against is turnovers (-2.5 points). The line BUF -5.5, total 53.5. BUF starter: Josh Allen. LV starter: Kirk Cousins. LV out: Dont'e Thornton Jr., Carter Runyon, Tonka Hemingway.
Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys, 65%, -115. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+17.4 points), motivation (+2.4 points), yards margin (+2.3 points). The case against is offense (-4.4 points). We like this side 14 points more than the price does. The line GB -1.5, total 53.5. DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: Cobie Durant, DeMarvion Overshown, Drew Shelton. GB starter: Jordan Love. GB out: Josh Jacobs, Skyy Moore, Benjamin St-Juste, Javon Hargrave, Jonathan Ford.
Carolina Hurricanes over Calgary Flames, 64%, -218. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+11.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+10.0 points), goal margin (+9.2 points). The case against is recent form (-7.3 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. CAR starter: Brandon Bussi. CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis, Taylor Hall. CAR is on the second of a back to back. CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek.
Minnesota Wild over Columbus Blue Jackets, 62%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.0 points), rest (+6.2 points), expected goals (+4.6 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-3.0 points). The line MIN -1.5, total 6.5. CBJ starter: Cam Talbot (projected). CBJ is on the second of a back to back. MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt. MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Nico Sturm, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Olli Maatta.
Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Guardians, 55%, -132. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: record (+1.1 points), clutch hitting (+1.0 points), home/road split (+0.8 points). The case against is run margin (-1.0 points). The line TB -1.5, total 6.5. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov | Lock | CAR | CAR at CGY | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.6 | 88% | NHL |
| Drew Rasmussen | Lock | TB | TB at CLE | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 6.5 | 81% | MLB |
| Parker Messick | Play | CLE | TB at CLE | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 4.9 | 79% | MLB |
| Sebastian Aho | Play | CAR | CAR at CGY | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.2 | 79% | NHL |
| Matt Boldy | Play | MIN | CBJ at MIN | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.3 | 71% | NHL |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Lean | MIN | CBJ at MIN | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.2 | 68% | NHL |
| Kenneth Walker III | Lean | KC | LAC at KC | Over 74.5 rushing yards | 97.1 | 66% | NFL |
| Bijan Robinson | Lean | ATL | CHI at ATL | Over 67.5 rushing yards | 87.6 | 66% | NFL |
| Caleb Williams | Lean | CHI | CHI at ATL | Over 256.5 passing yards | 295 | 65% | NFL |
| Matthew Stafford | Lean | LAR | ARI at LAR | Over 331.5 passing yards | 380.6 | 65% | NFL |
| Josh Allen | Lean | BUF | BUF at LV | Over 235.5 passing yards | 270.3 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Games | JAX; LAR; KC; NE; IND; BUF; GB | +963 | 10% | +940 |
| NFL | Props | Kenneth Walker III over 74.5 rushing yards; Bijan Robinson over 67.5 rushing yards; Caleb Williams over 256.5 passing yards; Matthew Stafford over 331.5 passing yards; Josh Allen over 235.5 passing yards | +736 (fair) | 12% | +736 |
| NFL | Best of both | LAR; KC; NE; Kenneth Walker III over 74.5 rushing yards; Bijan Robinson over 67.5 rushing yards; Caleb Williams over 256.5 passing yards | +535 | 13% | +648 |
| MLB | Props | Drew Rasmussen over 4.5 strikeouts; Parker Messick over 3.5 strikeouts | -178 (fair) | 64% | -178 |
| MLB | Best of both | TB; Drew Rasmussen over 4.5 strikeouts; Parker Messick over 3.5 strikeouts | +175 | 35% | +185 |
| NHL | Games | CAR; MIN | +122 | 40% | +153 |
| NHL | Props | Andrei Svechnikov over 1.5 shots on goal; Sebastian Aho over 1.5 shots on goal; Matt Boldy over 2.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal | +203 (fair) | 33% | +203 |
| NHL | Best of both | CAR; MIN; Andrei Svechnikov over 1.5 shots on goal; Sebastian Aho over 1.5 shots on goal; Matt Boldy over 2.5 shots on goal | +354 | 19% | +417 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at GB | NFL | GB | 65% | 51% | +14 |
| NO at NYG | NFL | NYG | 57% | 50.4% | +7 |
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI at LAR | NFL | LAR | 80% | 85% | -5 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN at IND | NFL | IND without Pierce, Warren | 5.4 pts against IND |
| NYJ at NE | NFL | NYJ without Hall, Mitchell | 4.8 pts toward NE |
| ARI at LAR | NFL | ARI without Conner, Love | 3.9 pts toward LAR |
| LAC at KC | NFL | KC without Rice, Thornton; LAC without Harris | 3.7 pts against KC |
| CAR at PHI | NFL | PHI without Barkley, Bigsby | 3.5 pts toward CAR |
| CHI at ATL | NFL | CHI without Monangai | 2.3 pts against CHI |
| DAL at GB | NFL | GB without Jacobs | 2.1 pts against GB |
| CBJ at MIN | NHL | MIN without Faber, Maatta | 1.4 pts against MIN |
| PIT at TB | NFL | PIT without Pittman, Wilson | 1.1 pts against PIT |
| CAR at CGY | NHL | CGY without Huberdeau; CAR without Hall, Jarvis | 0.9 pts against CAR |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | NHL | second of a back to back | CAR at CGY | CAR 64% (our pick) |
| CBJ | NHL | second of a back to back | CBJ at MIN | MIN 62% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 17)
MLB: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at CLE | TB | 51% | -112 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 77% | 3 | Hit |
| José Ramírez | Over 0.5 hits | 72% | 0 | Miss |
Tickets: the props parlay (-127) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+239) missed.
NHL: 5-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at TBL | TBL | 68% | -395 | Hit |
| DAL at CHI | DAL | 65% | -218 | Hit |
| PIT at VGK | VGK | 64% | -205 | Hit |
| CAR at WPG | CAR | 64% | -205 | Hit |
| SEA at FLA | FLA | 61% | -185 | Hit |
| OTT at PHI | OTT | 59% | -155 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 66% | 1 | Miss |
| Brandon Hagel | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 80% | 5 | Hit |
| Brady Tkachuk | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 74% | 7 | Hit |
| Alexis Lafrenière | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 75% | 0 | Miss |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 88% | 2 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+926) missed; the props parlay (+288) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+415) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 7 since Oct 1 | 12-7 | -1.64 u | -8.6% | 14-6 (70%) | 0-2 |
| MLB | 15 since Sep 30 | 15-14 | -3.04 u | -10.5% | 29-20 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NHL | 18 since Sep 30 | 51-21 | +7.98 u | +11.1% | 55-31 (64%) | 5-13 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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