Best Bets for Wednesday, October 21: TOR 78%, HOU 77% and 5 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
7 picks to win on the Model Cards for Wednesday, October 21, across the NBA and NHL, plus 9 props. The firmest call is Toronto Raptors at 78% (-440). Yesterday's cards: NBA 1-2, NHL 2-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at TOR | Lock | TOR | 78% | -440 | 78% | 0 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) +11.0, net rating, last 10 +5.8 |
| DAL at HOU | Lock | HOU | 77% | -440 | 78% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +5.5, injuries (HOU: Adams, Phillips day-to-day; DAL without Aldama, Lively, Martin; Howard questionable) +3.5 |
| GS at LAL | Lock | LAL | 75% | -230 | 67% | +8 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) +15.1, injuries (LAL without Thiero; GS without Butler, Porzingis, Podziemski; Bassey questionable, Curry day-to-day) +14.2 |
| PHI at BUF | Play | BUF | 62% | -185 | 62% | 0 | NHL | expected goals +9.3, expected goals (5v5) +6.1 |
| MIL at WSH | Play | WSH | 62% | -175 | 61% | +1 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) +34.7, head to head +1.2 |
| SAC at LAC | Play | LAC | 61% | -185 | 62% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +8.3, head to head +7.3 |
| FLA at OTT | Lean | FLA | 50.4% | -112 | 50.4% | 0 | NHL | expected goals +2.9, streak +2.0 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Toronto Raptors over Chicago Bulls, 78%, -440. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) (+11.0 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.8 points), injuries (CHI without Claxton; Okoro, Miller day-to-day, Collins probable) (+3.4 points). The case against is venue (-1.1 points). The line TOR -10.5, total 237.5. CHI out: Nic Claxton. TOR out: Brandon Ingram, Nate Bittle.
Houston Rockets over Dallas Mavericks, 77%, -440. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.5 points), injuries (HOU: Adams, Phillips day-to-day; DAL without Aldama, Lively, Martin; Howard questionable) (+3.5 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) (+3.1 points). The case against is venue (-0.7 points). The line HOU -10.5, total 229.5. DAL out: Caleb Martin, Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic.
Los Angeles Lakers over Golden State Warriors, 75%, -230. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) (+15.1 points), injuries (LAL without Thiero; GS without Butler, Porzingis, Podziemski; Bassey questionable, Curry day-to-day) (+14.2 points), star availability (+4.7 points). We like this side 8 points more than the price does. The line LAL -6.5, total 234.5. GS out: Brandin Podziemski, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody. LAL out: Adou Thiero, Cameron Carr.
Buffalo Sabres over Philadelphia Flyers, 62%, -185. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+9.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+6.1 points), goal margin (+3.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 11 games in) (-3.5 points). The line BUF -1.5, total 5.5. PHI starter: Dan Vladar (projected). PHI out: Cam York, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny. BUF starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. BUF out: Alex Lyon, Sam Carrick, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Matt Grzelcyk.
Washington Wizards over Milwaukee Bucks, 62%, -175. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) (+34.7 points), head to head (+1.2 points). The case against is venue (-7.7 points). The line WSH -4.5, total 239.5. WSH out: AJ Dybantsa, Jamir Watkins, Tristan Vukcevic.
LA Clippers over Sacramento Kings, 61%, -185. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+8.3 points), head to head (+7.3 points), venue (+4.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) (-17.3 points). The line LAC -4.5, total 227.5. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Dylan Cardwell, Maxime Raynaud. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Jordan Miller, Max Strus, Yanic Konan Niederhauser.
Florida Panthers over Ottawa Senators, 50.4%, -112. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+2.9 points), streak (+2.0 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 9 games in) (+1.8 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.0 points). The line FLA -1.5, total 5.5. FLA starter: Akira Schmid (projected). FLA out: Jacob Markstrom, Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich. OTT starter: Linus Ullmark (projected). OTT out: Thomas Chabot, Kurtis MacDermid, William Eklund.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin | Lock | BUF | PHI at BUF | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.8 | 90% | NHL |
| Matthew Tkachuk | Lock | FLA | FLA at OTT | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.6 | 87% | NHL |
| Brady Tkachuk | Lock | FLA | FLA at OTT | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.2 | 85% | NHL |
| Tage Thompson | Play | BUF | PHI at BUF | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 74% | NHL |
| Jalen Johnson | Lean | ATL | ATL at ORL | Over 20.5 points | 24.5 | 70% | NBA |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | GS at LAL | Over 28.5 points | 33.7 | 69% | NBA |
| Stephen Curry | Lean | GS | GS at LAL | Over 28.5 points | 33.4 | 68% | NBA |
| Anthony Davis | Lean | WSH | MIL at WSH | Over 20.5 points | 23.8 | 66% | NBA |
| LaMelo Ball | Lean | MIN | MIN at MIA | Over 21.5 points | 24.7 | 65% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | TOR; HOU; LAL; WSH; LAC | +423 | 17% | +491 |
| NBA | Props | Jalen Johnson over 20.5 points; Luka Doncic over 28.5 points; Stephen Curry over 28.5 points; Anthony Davis over 20.5 points; LaMelo Ball over 21.5 points | +610 (fair) | 14% | +610 |
| NBA | Best of both | TOR; HOU; LAL; Jalen Johnson over 20.5 points; Luka Doncic over 28.5 points; Stephen Curry over 28.5 points | +565 | 15% | +582 |
| NHL | Games | BUF; FLA | +192 | 31% | +219 |
| NHL | Props | Rasmus Dahlin over 1.5 shots on goal; Matthew Tkachuk over 1.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal; Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal | +102 (fair) | 49% | +102 |
| NHL | Best of both | BUF; FLA; Rasmus Dahlin over 1.5 shots on goal; Matthew Tkachuk over 1.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal | +336 | 21% | +377 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS at LAL | NBA | LAL | 75% | 67% | +8 |
| MIN at MIA | NBA | MIA | 56% | 53% | +4 |
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND at NO | NBA | IND | 54% | 58% | -4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS at LAL | NBA | LAL without Thiero; GS without Butler, Porzingis, Podziemski; Bassey questionable, Curry day-to-day | 14.2 pts toward LAL |
| CHA at BKN | NBA | CHA without Knueppel, White, Williams | 8.8 pts against CHA |
| SAC at LAC | NBA | LAC without Ingram, Strus, Miller; SAC without Raynaud, Cardwell; Monk day-to-day | 7.0 pts against LAC |
| IND at NO | NBA | IND without Nesmith, McConnell, Furphy | 5.0 pts against IND |
| PHX at POR | NBA | POR without Sharpe, Carlson, Youngblood; Avdija, Potter day-to-day; PHX without Williams; Kennard day-to-day | 5.0 pts against POR |
| DAL at HOU | NBA | HOU: Adams, Phillips day-to-day; DAL without Aldama, Lively, Martin; Howard questionable | 3.5 pts toward HOU |
| CHI at TOR | NBA | CHI without Claxton; Okoro, Miller day-to-day, Collins probable | 3.4 pts toward TOR |
| ATL at ORL | NBA | ORL without Black, Penda, Isaac; ATL without Gueye | 3.4 pts against ORL |
| MIN at MIA | NBA | MIA: Goldin day-to-day; MIN without DiVincenzo | 2.8 pts toward MIA |
| UTAH at MEM | NBA | MEM: Stewart day-to-day; UTAH without Nurkic, Alexander, Bradley | 2.5 pts toward MEM |
| MIL at WSH | NBA | WSH without Watkins, Vukcevic | 2.1 pts against WSH |
| PHI at BUF | NHL | BUF without Grzelcyk, Danforth, Timmins; PHI without Tippett, Konecny, Ristolainen; Foerster GTD | 2.0 pts toward BUF |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | NBA | 2.8K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | PHX at POR | POR 55% (our pick) |
| MIN | NBA | 2.4K km since the last game | MIN at MIA | MIA 56% (our pick is the other side) |
| UTAH | NBA | 2.6K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | UTAH at MEM | MEM 53% (our pick is the other side) |
| FLA | NHL | 2.2K km since the last game | FLA at OTT | FLA 51% (our pick) |
The NFL card for Thursday, October 22 is already posted: NE 51% (+130).
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 20)
NBA: 1-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at DET | DET | 54% | +102 | Hit |
| PHI at NY | NY | 63% | -175 | Miss |
| OKC at SA | SA | 52% | -102 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | Over 20.5 points | 70% | 22 | Hit |
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 23.5 points | 67% | 12 | Miss |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 28.5 points | 67% | 32 | Hit |
| Jaylen Brown | Over 25.5 points | 68% | 19 | Miss |
| LeBron James | Over 19.5 points | 70% | 14 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+529) missed; the props parlay (+566) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+1775) missed.
NHL: 2-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at VAN | CAR | 68% | -298 | Hit |
| SJS at MTL | MTL | 65% | -225 | Miss |
| BOS at DAL | DAL | 60% | -170 | Hit |
| LAK at WSH | WSH | 58% | -155 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 80% | 3 | Hit |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 86% | 4 | Hit |
| David Pastrnak | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 76% | 0 | Miss |
| Brandon Hagel | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 73% | 3 | Hit |
| Auston Matthews | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 90% | 3 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+404) missed; the props parlay (+192) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+399) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 9 since Oct 1 | 17-10 | -2.52 u | -9.3% | 19-8 (70%) | 0-3 |
| MLB | 18 since Sep 30 | 18-14 | -0.74 u | -2.3% | 31-22 (58%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 1 since Oct 20 | 1-2 | -0.98 u | -32.7% | 2-3 (40%) | 0-1 |
| NHL | 21 since Sep 30 | 57-25 | +7.35 u | +9.0% | 66-34 (66%) | 5-16 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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