Best Bets for Tuesday, October 20: CAR 68%, NY 63% and 6 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
8 picks to win on the Model Cards for Tuesday, October 20, across the NBA and NHL, plus 10 props. The firmest call is Carolina Hurricanes at 68% (-298). Yesterday's cards: NFL 1-0, MLB 1-0, NHL 3-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at VAN | Lock | CAR | 68% | -298 | 72% | -4 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +13.8, expected goals +13.5 |
| PHI at NY | Play | NY | 63% | -180 | 62% | +2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +11.7, head to head +9.5 |
| SJS at MTL | Play | MTL | 63% | -205 | 64% | -1 | NHL | back to back +6.8, rest +6.1 |
| BOS at DAL | Play | DAL | 60% | -170 | 60% | -1 | NHL | preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 9 games in) +4.8, venue +2.6 |
| LAK at WSH | Play | WSH | 59% | -162 | 59% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +6.4, preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 6 games in) +2.6 |
| TOR at CBJ | Play | CBJ | 59% | -162 | 59% | -1 | NHL | back to back +7.1, rest +6.3 |
| BOS at DET | Lean | DET | 54% | +102 | 47% | +6 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) +22.5, head to head +2.2 |
| OKC at SA | Lean | SA | 52% | -110 | 50.0% | +2 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) +27.4, head to head +3.2 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Carolina Hurricanes over Vancouver Canucks, 68%, -298. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+13.8 points), expected goals (+13.5 points), goal margin (+7.2 points). The case against is recent form (-4.4 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have CAR as the more likely winner. The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Mark Jankowski, Seth Jarvis, Taylor Hall. VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Mackenzie MacEachern.
New York Knicks over Philadelphia 76ers, 63%, -180. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+11.7 points), head to head (+9.5 points), venue (+3.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) (-8.1 points). The line NY -4.5, total 232.5. PHI out: Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow, Tacko Fall.
Montréal Canadiens over San Jose Sharks, 63%, -205. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+6.8 points), rest (+6.1 points), expected goals (+5.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 9 games in) (-4.3 points). The line MTL -1.5, total 6.5. SJS starter: Alex Nedeljkovic (likely). SJS is on the second of a back to back. MTL starter: Jakub Dobes. MTL out: Florian Xhekaj, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.
Dallas Stars over Boston Bruins, 60%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 9 games in) (+4.8 points), venue (+2.6 points), recent form (+2.2 points). The case against is goal margin (-2.8 points). The line DAL -1.5, total 5.5. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected). DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell, Luke Krys.
Washington Capitals over Los Angeles Kings, 59%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+6.4 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 6 games in) (+2.6 points), time zone (+2.2 points). The case against is recent form (-7.1 points). The line WSH -1.5, total 5.5. LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (likely). WSH starter: Logan Thompson. WSH out: Justin Sourdif, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Rasmus Sandin.
Columbus Blue Jackets over Toronto Maple Leafs, 59%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.1 points), rest (+6.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 10 games in) (-7.0 points). The line CBJ -1.5, total 6.5. TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz. TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Miles Wood. TOR is on the second of a back to back. CBJ starter: Jet Greaves.
Detroit Pistons over Boston Celtics, 54%, +102. Lean on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) (+22.5 points), head to head (+2.2 points), true shooting (+1.6 points). The case against is venue (-8.1 points). We like this side 6 points more than the price does. The line BOS -1.5, total 219.5. BOS out: Devin Carter. DET out: Taurean Prince.
San Antonio Spurs over Oklahoma City Thunder, 52%, -110. Lean on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 0 and 0 games in) (+27.4 points), head to head (+3.2 points). The case against is venue (-6.0 points). The line SA -1.5, total 230.5. OKC out: Nikola Topic, Otega Oweh, Thomas Sorber. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | Lock | TOR | TOR at CBJ | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.8 | 90% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | MIN at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.5 | 86% | NHL |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Play | MIN | MIN at EDM | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.8 | 80% | NHL |
| David Pastrnak | Play | BOS | BOS at DAL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.6 | 76% | NHL |
| Brandon Hagel | Play | TBL | TBL at VGK | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 73% | NHL |
| Cade Cunningham | Lean | DET | BOS at DET | Over 20.5 points | 24.5 | 70% | NBA |
| LeBron James | Lean | PHI | PHI at NY | Over 19.5 points | 23.3 | 70% | NBA |
| Jaylen Brown | Lean | PHI | PHI at NY | Over 25.5 points | 30.1 | 68% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | OKC at SA | Over 23.5 points | 27.4 | 67% | NBA |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Lean | OKC | OKC at SA | Over 28.5 points | 33.2 | 67% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | NY; DET; SA | +500 | 18% | +463 |
| NBA | Props | Cade Cunningham over 20.5 points; LeBron James over 19.5 points; Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 23.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 28.5 points | +566 (fair) | 15% | +566 |
| NBA | Best of both | NY; DET; SA; Cade Cunningham over 20.5 points; LeBron James over 19.5 points; Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points | +1690 | 6% | +1581 |
| NHL | Games | CAR; MTL; DAL; WSH; CBJ | +725 | 9% | +1029 |
| NHL | Props | Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal; David Pastrnak over 2.5 shots on goal; Brandon Hagel over 2.5 shots on goal | +192 (fair) | 34% | +192 |
| NHL | Best of both | CAR; MTL; DAL; Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal | +414 | 16% | +534 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at DET | NBA | DET | 54% | 47% | +6 |
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at VAN | NHL | CAR | 68% | 72% | -4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at NY | NBA | PHI without Barlow, Hukporti; Wade questionable, Simons, Bona day-to-day | 3.0 pts toward NY |
| OKC at SA | NBA | SA without Harris; OKC without Topic | 2.1 pts against SA |
| MIN at EDM | NHL | EDM without Savoie, Nugent-Hopkins, Dickinson; MIN without Maatta, Spurgeon, Faber | 0.9 pts toward EDM |
| TOR at CBJ | NHL | CBJ without Provorov, Fabbro; TOR without Tavares, Tanev, Joshua | 0.8 pts toward CBJ |
| CAR at VAN | NHL | VAN: Rossi GTD; CAR without Hall, Jarvis, Staal; Jankowski GTD | 0.8 pts against CAR |
| WPG at STL | NHL | STL without Mailloux, Toropchenko; WPG without Morrissey; Namestnikov GTD | 0.7 pts toward STL |
| TBL at VGK | NHL | VGK without Olofsson, Wotherspoon; TBL without Gourde | 0.5 pts against VGK |
| BOS at DET | NBA | DET without Prince; BOS without Carter | 0.4 pts against DET |
| WPG at STL | NHL | Goalies (WPG: Skinner in for Hellebuyck, hurt | 0.4 pts toward STL |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | NBA | 2.5K km since the last game | PHI at NY | NY 63% (our pick) |
| TOR | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | TOR at CBJ | CBJ 59% (our pick is the other side) |
| BOS | NHL | 2 time zones crossed, road game 4 | BOS at DAL | DAL 60% (our pick is the other side) |
| DET | NHL | 3.1K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | DET at SEA | SEA 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| SEA | NHL | 4.4K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | DET at SEA | SEA 51% (our pick) |
| LAK | NHL | 3.7K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | LAK at WSH | WSH 59% (our pick is the other side) |
| SJS | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days, road game 4 | SJS at MTL | MTL 63% (our pick is the other side) |
| TBL | NHL | 3.2K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | TBL at VGK | VGK 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| ANA | NHL | second of a back to back | ANA at NYI | NYI 57% (our pick is the other side) |
| VAN | NHL | 4.2K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | CAR at VAN | CAR 68% (our pick is the other side) |
| COL | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | COL at NJD | COL 50.3% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 19)
NFL: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at SF | SF | 77% | -380 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | Over 256.5 passing yards | 65% | 264 | Hit |
| Christian McCaffrey | Over 54.5 rushing yards | 65% | 64 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (+136) hit.
MLB: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at TB | TB | 57% | -158 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 66% | 3 | Miss |
| Yandy Díaz | Over 0.5 hits | 75% | 1 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (+102) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+230) missed.
NHL: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at PHI | COL | 67% | -238 | Miss |
| PIT at UTA | UTA | 61% | -185 | Hit |
| ANA at NYR | NYR | 56% | -155 | Hit |
| SJS at TOR | TOR | 54% | -135 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 65% | 1 | Miss |
| Macklin Celebrini | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 71% | 5 | Hit |
| Auston Matthews | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 91% | 3 | Hit |
| Cale Makar | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 87% | 4 | Hit |
| Dylan Garand | Over 20.5 saves | 69% | 29 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+527) missed; the props parlay (+299) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+541) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 9 since Oct 1 | 17-10 | -2.52 u | -9.3% | 19-8 (70%) | 0-3 |
| MLB | 18 since Sep 30 | 18-14 | -0.74 u | -2.3% | 31-22 (58%) | 0-8 |
| NHL | 20 since Sep 30 | 55-23 | +8.43 u | +10.8% | 62-33 (65%) | 5-15 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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