Best Bets for Saturday, October 24: CLE 80%, SA 79% and 8 More Picks Across the MLB, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
10 picks to win on the Model Cards for Saturday, October 24, across the MLB, NBA and NHL, plus 12 props. The firmest call is Cleveland Cavaliers at 80% (-520). Yesterday's cards: MLB 1-0, NBA 3-3, NHL 2-0 with the parlay hitting. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN at CLE | Lock | CLE | 80% | -520 | 80% | -1 | NBA | head to head +7.8, venue +5.3 |
| SA at DAL | Lock | SA | 79% | -600 | 82% | -3 | NBA | injuries (DAL without Flagg, Lively; Aldama, Howard day-to-day; SA: Harris day-to-day) +5.3, head to head +4.1 |
| MIL at PHI | Lock | PHI | 77% | -675 | 84% | -6 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 2 games in) +11.0, rest +2.7 |
| NO at DEN | Lock | DEN | 76% | -485 | 80% | -4 | NBA | head to head +7.8, venue +6.0 |
| GS at PHX | Lock | PHX | 74% | -375 | 76% | -2 | NBA | injuries (PHX without Williams, Kennard; GS without Curry, Butler, Podziemski; Bassey day-to-day) +12.8, star availability +7.9 |
| LAK at NJD | Play | NJD | 62% | -192 | 63% | -1 | NHL | expected goals +8.6, goal margin +4.0 |
| SJS at BOS | Play | BOS | 62% | -192 | 63% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +7.0, expected goals +5.4 |
| TOR at EDM | Play | EDM | 61% | -180 | 62% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +4.7, expected goals +4.6 |
| CAR at STL | Play | CAR | 58% | -155 | 58% | 0 | NHL | expected goals +9.6, expected goals (5v5) +8.8 |
| TB at MIL | Lean | MIL | 54% | -120 | 52% | +1 | MLB | home/road split +4.1, venue +3.5 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on TB at MIL: it makes the game 8.4 runs against a posted 6.5.
Why each pick
Cleveland Cavaliers over Brooklyn Nets, 80%, -520. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.8 points), venue (+5.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 1 games in) (-2.6 points). The line CLE -11.5, total 227.5. BKN out: Tyler Bilodeau.
San Antonio Spurs over Dallas Mavericks, 79%, -600. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (DAL without Flagg, Lively; Aldama, Howard day-to-day; SA: Harris day-to-day) (+5.3 points), head to head (+4.1 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.3 points). The case against is streak (-1.5 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have SA as the more likely winner. The line SA -12.5, total 232.5. SA out: Jayden Quaintance. SA is on the second of a back to back. DAL out: Cooper Flagg, Dereck Lively II. DAL is on the second of a back to back.
Philadelphia 76ers over Milwaukee Bucks, 77%, -675. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 2 games in) (+11.0 points), rest (+2.7 points), head to head (+2.3 points). The case against is injuries (PHI without Barlow, Hukporti; Wade questionable, James day-to-day) (-3.2 points). The market is 6 points firmer on it than we are; we still have PHI as the more likely winner. The line PHI -12.5, total 235.5. MIL is on the second of a back to back. PHI out: Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow, Tacko Fall.
Denver Nuggets over New Orleans Pelicans, 76%, -485. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.8 points), venue (+6.0 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 2 games in) (-6.1 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DEN as the more likely winner. The line DEN -11.5, total 239.5. NO is on the second of a back to back. DEN out: Cameron Johnson, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones.
Phoenix Suns over Golden State Warriors, 74%, -375. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (PHX without Williams, Kennard; GS without Curry, Butler, Podziemski; Bassey day-to-day) (+12.8 points), star availability (+7.9 points), venue (+4.9 points). The case against is head to head (-4.0 points). The line PHX -9.5, total 221.5. GS out: Brandin Podziemski, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody. GS is on the second of a back to back. PHX out: Mark Williams.
New Jersey Devils over Los Angeles Kings, 62%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+8.6 points), goal margin (+4.0 points), time zone (+2.1 points). The case against is recent form (-3.0 points). The line NJD -1.5, total 5.5. LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected). NJD starter: Jake Allen (projected).
Boston Bruins over San Jose Sharks, 62%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+7.0 points), expected goals (+5.4 points), expected goals (5v5) (+4.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) (-4.4 points). The line BOS -1.5, total 6.5. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected). BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman.
Edmonton Oilers over Toronto Maple Leafs, 61%, -180. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.7 points), expected goals (+4.6 points), goal margin (+3.8 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-3.1 points). The line EDM -1.5, total 6.5. TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Marshall Rifai. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry. EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark.
Carolina Hurricanes over St. Louis Blues, 58%, -155. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+9.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+8.8 points), goal margin (+3.2 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.1 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Taylor Hall. STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko, Ross Johnston.
Milwaukee Brewers over Tampa Bay Rays, 54%, -120. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: home/road split (+4.1 points), venue (+3.5 points), streak (+2.5 points). The case against is run margin (-1.6 points). The line MIL -1.5, total 6.5. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brian Fitzpatrick, Quinn Priester.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | Lock | BOS | SJS at BOS | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 92% | NHL |
| Leon Draisaitl | Lock | EDM | TOR at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.7 | 89% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | TOR at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.7 | 88% | NHL |
| Logan Henderson | Lock | MIL | TB at MIL | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 5.2 | 83% | MLB |
| Alex DeBrincat | Play | DET | DET at CGY | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.8 | 80% | NHL |
| Mark Stone | Play | VGK | VGK at CBJ | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.1 | 74% | NHL |
| Anthony Davis | Lean | WSH | WSH at CHI | Over 19.5 points | 23.1 | 69% | NBA |
| Jaylen Brown | Lean | PHI | MIL at PHI | Over 25.5 points | 30.2 | 69% | NBA |
| LeBron James | Lean | PHI | MIL at PHI | Over 20.5 points | 24.2 | 69% | NBA |
| Drew Rasmussen | Lean | TB | TB at MIL | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 6.8 | 67% | MLB |
| Nikola Jokic | Lean | DEN | NO at DEN | Over 26.5 points | 30.9 | 67% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | SA at DAL | Over 20.5 points | 23.9 | 67% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Props | Logan Henderson over 3.5 strikeouts; Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts | -126 (fair) | 56% | -126 |
| MLB | Best of both | MIL; Logan Henderson over 3.5 strikeouts; Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts | +229 | 30% | +235 |
| NBA | Games | CLE; SA; PHI; DEN; PHX | +144 | 28% | +264 |
| NBA | Props | Anthony Davis over 19.5 points; Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points; LeBron James over 20.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 26.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 20.5 points | +585 (fair) | 15% | +585 |
| NBA | Best of both | CLE; SA; PHI; Anthony Davis over 19.5 points; Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points; LeBron James over 20.5 points | +391 | 16% | +528 |
| NHL | Games | NJD; BOS; EDM; CAR | +492 | 14% | +637 |
| NHL | Props | David Pastrnak over 1.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Alex DeBrincat over 2.5 shots on goal; Mark Stone over 1.5 shots on goal | +136 (fair) | 42% | +136 |
| NHL | Best of both | NJD; BOS; EDM; David Pastrnak over 1.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal | +400 | 17% | +498 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at PHI | NBA | PHI | 77% | 84% | -6 |
| NO at DEN | NBA | DEN | 76% | 80% | -4 |
| MIA at CHA | NBA | MIA | 53% | 56% | -3 |
| SA at DAL | NBA | SA | 79% | 82% | -3 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS at PHX | NBA | PHX without Williams, Kennard; GS without Curry, Butler, Podziemski; Bassey day-to-day | 12.8 pts toward PHX |
| SA at DAL | NBA | DAL without Flagg, Lively; Aldama, Howard day-to-day; SA: Harris day-to-day | 5.3 pts toward SA |
| BUF at WSH | NHL | Goalies (WSH: Lindgren in for Thompson, hurt | 3.8 pts against WSH |
| NO at DEN | NBA | DEN without Johnson, Jones, Strawther; NO without Missi | 3.6 pts against DEN |
| MIL at PHI | NBA | PHI without Barlow, Hukporti; Wade questionable, James day-to-day | 3.2 pts against PHI |
| NSH at PIT | NHL | PIT without Malkin, Rust, Kindel; Chinakhov, Girard GTD | 3.2 pts against PIT |
| HOU at ATL | NBA | ATL without Gueye; HOU without Adams; Sheppard doubtful | 2.7 pts toward ATL |
| MIA at CHA | NBA | CHA: Knueppel, White day-to-day | 2.3 pts toward MIA |
| ANA at PHI | NHL | PHI without Tippett, Konecny, Ristolainen; ANA without Terry, Poehling; Caulfield GTD | 1.0 pts against PHI |
| SJS at BOS | NHL | SJS without Chernyshov; Wennberg GTD | 0.7 pts toward BOS |
| VGK at CBJ | NHL | CBJ without Provorov, Fabbro; VGK without Olofsson, Wotherspoon; Marner GTD | 0.7 pts against VGK |
| NYR at OTT | NHL | OTT without Chabot, Eklund; NYR without Sykora, Veleno; Tolvanen GTD | 0.7 pts against OTT |
| NYR at OTT | NHL | Goalies (OTT: Johansson in for Ullmark, hurt; NYR: Garand in for Shesterkin, out for the season | 0.7 pts against OTT |
| LAK at NJD | NHL | NJD without Casey; LAK without Fiala, Turcotte; Byfield GTD | 0.6 pts toward NJD |
| CAR at STL | NHL | STL without Mailloux, Toropchenko; CAR without Hall, Staal, Nikishin; Jankowski GTD | 0.6 pts against CAR |
| DET at CGY | NHL | CGY without Huberdeau, Honzek; Backlund GTD; DET without Kasper, Edvinsson, Appleton | 0.4 pts toward DET |
| MIN at SEA | NHL | SEA without Lindgren; MIN without Faber, Foligno, Foligno; Shabanov GTD | 0.4 pts against MIN |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | NBA | second of a back to back | WSH at CHI | CHI 54% (our pick is the other side) |
| CHI | NBA | second of a back to back | WSH at CHI | CHI 54% (our pick) |
| GS | NBA | second of a back to back | GS at PHX | PHX 74% (our pick is the other side) |
| NO | NBA | second of a back to back | NO at DEN | DEN 76% (our pick is the other side) |
| MIA | NBA | second of a back to back | MIA at CHA | MIA 53% (our pick) |
| CHA | NBA | second of a back to back | MIA at CHA | MIA 53% (our pick is the other side) |
| HOU | NBA | second of a back to back | HOU at ATL | ATL 53% (our pick is the other side) |
| ATL | NBA | second of a back to back | HOU at ATL | ATL 53% (our pick) |
| SA | NBA | second of a back to back | SA at DAL | SA 79% (our pick) |
| DAL | NBA | second of a back to back | SA at DAL | SA 79% (our pick is the other side) |
| MIL | NBA | second of a back to back | MIL at PHI | PHI 77% (our pick is the other side) |
| TOR | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, 2.7K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | TOR at EDM | EDM 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| SJS | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, road game 6 | SJS at BOS | BOS 62% (our pick is the other side) |
| TBL | NHL | second of a back to back | TBL at UTA | UTA 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| ANA | NHL | road game 4 | ANA at PHI | PHI 52% (our pick is the other side) |
| CAR | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, 2.4K km since the last game, road game 5 | CAR at STL | CAR 58% (our pick) |
The NFL card for Sunday, October 25 is already posted: MIN 77% (-290), HOU 77% (-500), DEN 71% (-230), CLE 69% (-130), SF 68% (-148), LAR 62% (-175), NYJ 59% (-225).
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 23)
MLB: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at MIL | MIL | 64% | -186 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 65% | 3 | Miss |
| Nick Martinez | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 77% | 5 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (-102) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+205) missed.
NBA: 3-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at IND | IND | 68% | -265 | Miss |
| TOR at WSH | TOR | 65% | -340 | Hit |
| LAC at LAL | LAL | 79% | -360 | Hit |
| POR at SAC | POR | 68% | -470 | Hit |
| HOU at SA | SA | 67% | -185 | Miss |
| MEM at GS | GS | 61% | -162 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | Over 20.5 points | 70% | 16 | Miss |
| Luka Doncic | Over 30.5 points | 67% | 23 | Miss |
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 23.5 points | 69% | 25 | Hit |
| Deni Avdija | Over 24.5 points | 69% | 26 | Hit |
| Stephen Curry | Over 28.5 points | 68% | 24 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+588) missed; the props parlay (+562) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+545) missed.
NHL: 2-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL at CHI | MTL | 60% | -170 | Hit |
| TBL at COL | COL | 54% | -122 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 75% | 2 | Miss |
| Nikita Kucherov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 73% | 2 | Miss |
| Cole Caufield | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 73% | 4 | Hit |
| Juraj Slafkovský | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 85% | 3 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+189) hit; the props parlay (+193) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+521) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 10 since Oct 1 | 17-11 | -3.52 u | -12.6% | 21-8 (72%) | 0-3 |
| MLB | 19 since Sep 30 | 19-14 | -0.20 u | -0.6% | 32-23 (58%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 4 since Oct 20 | 11-5 | -0.20 u | -1.3% | 5-14 (26%) | 2-2 |
| NHL | 24 since Sep 30 | 63-29 | +6.94 u | +7.5% | 76-37 (67%) | 6-18 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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