Best Bets for Friday, October 23: LAL 80%, POR 68% and 7 More Picks Across the MLB, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
9 picks to win on the Model Cards for Friday, October 23, across the MLB, NBA and NHL, plus 11 props. The firmest call is Los Angeles Lakers at 80% (-375). Yesterday's cards: NFL 0-1, NBA 2-0 with the parlay hitting, NHL 4-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC at LAL | Lock | LAL | 80% | -375 | 76% | +4 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 1 games in) +14.0, injuries (LAL without Thiero; LaRavia day-to-day; LAC without Ingram, Strus, Miller) +8.8 |
| POR at SAC | Lock | POR | 68% | -440 | 78% | -10 | NBA | head to head +7.1, net rating, last 10 +5.0 |
| DAL at IND | Lock | IND | 67% | -265 | 70% | -3 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +4.9, preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 1 games in) +4.2 |
| HOU at SA | Lock | SA | 66% | -205 | 64% | +1 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 1 games in) +11.3, home/road split +1.7 |
| TOR at WSH | Play | TOR | 65% | -325 | 73% | -9 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +11.7, venue +7.5 |
| TB at MIL | Play | MIL | 64% | -188 | 62% | +1 | MLB | home/road split +3.9, venue +3.3 |
| MEM at GS | Play | GS | 60% | -148 | 57% | +3 | NBA | head to head +10.3, net rating, last 10 +5.6 |
| MTL at CHI | Play | MTL | 60% | -170 | 60% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +8.8, expected goals +6.4 |
| TBL at COL | Lean | COL | 54% | -125 | 53% | 0 | NHL | venue +4.0, preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 9 games in) +3.7 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on TB at MIL: it makes the game 8.5 runs against a posted 6.5.
Why each pick
Los Angeles Lakers over LA Clippers, 80%, -375. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 1 games in) (+14.0 points), injuries (LAL without Thiero; LaRavia day-to-day; LAC without Ingram, Strus, Miller) (+8.8 points), star availability (+3.0 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-2.8 points). We like this side 4 points more than the price does. The line LAL -9.5, total 225.5. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Jordan Miller, Max Strus, Yanic Konan Niederhauser. LAL out: Adou Thiero, Cameron Carr.
Portland Trail Blazers over Sacramento Kings, 68%, -440. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.1 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.0 points), venue (+4.4 points). The case against is motivation (-3.0 points). The market is 10 points firmer on it than we are; we still have POR as the more likely winner. The line POR -9.5, total 232.5. POR out: Branden Carlson, Chris Youngblood, Shaedon Sharpe. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Dylan Cardwell, Maxime Raynaud.
Indiana Pacers over Dallas Mavericks, 67%, -265. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+4.9 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 1 games in) (+4.2 points), streak (+1.4 points). The case against is venue (-3.2 points). The line IND -7.5, total 240.5. DAL out: Caleb Martin, Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic. IND out: Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell.
San Antonio Spurs over Houston Rockets, 66%, -205. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 1 games in) (+11.3 points), home/road split (+1.7 points), shooting (eFG) (+1.3 points). The case against is venue (-5.6 points). The line SA -5.5, total 224.5. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.
Toronto Raptors over Washington Wizards, 65%, -325. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+11.7 points), venue (+7.5 points), head to head (+5.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 1 games in) (-24.8 points). The market is 9 points firmer on it than we are; we still have TOR as the more likely winner. The line TOR -8.5, total 236.5. TOR out: Brandon Ingram, Nate Bittle. WSH out: AJ Dybantsa, Jamir Watkins, Tristan Vukcevic.
Milwaukee Brewers over Tampa Bay Rays, 64%, -188. Play on the MLB card. What drives it: home/road split (+3.9 points), venue (+3.3 points), streak (+2.4 points). The case against is run margin (-1.5 points). The line MIL -1.5, total 6.5. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brian Fitzpatrick, Grant Anderson, Quinn Priester.
Golden State Warriors over Memphis Grizzlies, 60%, -148. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+10.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.6 points), venue (+5.5 points). The case against is injuries (GS without Butler, Porzingis, Moody; Podziemski, Bassey day-to-day; MEM without Coward; Stewart day-to-day) (-7.7 points). We like this side 3 points more than the price does. The line GS -3.5, total 234.5. GS out: Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody.
Montréal Canadiens over Chicago Blackhawks, 60%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.8 points), expected goals (+6.4 points), goal margin (+3.9 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.3 points). The line MTL -1.5, total 6.5. MTL starter: Jacob Fowler (projected). MTL out: Nick Suzuki, Florian Xhekaj, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Andrew Mangiapane.
Colorado Avalanche over Tampa Bay Lightning, 54%, -125. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: venue (+4.0 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 9 games in) (+3.7 points), recent form (+1.6 points). The case against is streak (-2.3 points). The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected). COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Georgii Merkulov, Nicolas Roy, Zachary L'Heureux.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský | Lock | MTL | MTL at CHI | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.5 | 85% | NHL |
| Nick Martinez | Play | TB | TB at MIL | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 3.5 | 77% | MLB |
| Brandon Hagel | Play | TBL | TBL at COL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 75% | NHL |
| Nikita Kucherov | Play | TBL | TBL at COL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 73% | NHL |
| Cole Caufield | Play | MTL | MTL at CHI | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 73% | NHL |
| Cade Cunningham | Lean | DET | DET at MIA | Over 20.5 points | 24.5 | 70% | NBA |
| Deni Avdija | Lean | POR | POR at SAC | Over 24.5 points | 29 | 69% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | HOU at SA | Over 23.5 points | 27.8 | 69% | NBA |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | LAC at LAL | Over 28.5 points | 33.6 | 68% | NBA |
| Stephen Curry | Lean | GS | MEM at GS | Over 28.5 points | 33.4 | 68% | NBA |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Lean | MIL | TB at MIL | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 6.6 | 65% | MLB |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Props | Nick Martinez over 2.5 strikeouts; Jacob Misiorowski over 5.5 strikeouts | -102 (fair) | 50.4% | -102 |
| MLB | Best of both | MIL; Nick Martinez over 2.5 strikeouts; Jacob Misiorowski over 5.5 strikeouts | +204 | 32% | +212 |
| NBA | Games | LAL; POR; IND; SA; TOR; GS | +598 | 9% | +972 |
| NBA | Props | Cade Cunningham over 20.5 points; Deni Avdija over 24.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 23.5 points; Luka Doncic over 28.5 points; Stephen Curry over 28.5 points | +553 (fair) | 15% | +553 |
| NBA | Best of both | LAL; POR; IND; Cade Cunningham over 20.5 points; Deni Avdija over 24.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 23.5 points | +547 | 12% | +726 |
| NHL | Games | MTL; COL | +186 | 32% | +213 |
| NHL | Props | Juraj Slafkovský over 1.5 shots on goal; Brandon Hagel over 2.5 shots on goal; Nikita Kucherov over 2.5 shots on goal; Cole Caufield over 2.5 shots on goal | +193 (fair) | 34% | +193 |
| NHL | Best of both | MTL; COL; Juraj Slafkovský over 1.5 shots on goal; Brandon Hagel over 2.5 shots on goal; Nikita Kucherov over 2.5 shots on goal | +514 | 15% | +572 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO at UTAH | NBA | UTAH | 57% | 49.6% | +7 |
| LAC at LAL | NBA | LAL | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| CHI at MIL | NBA | MIL | 55% | 52% | +4 |
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR at SAC | NBA | POR | 68% | 78% | -10 |
| TOR at WSH | NBA | TOR | 65% | 73% | -9 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC at LAL | NBA | LAL without Thiero; LaRavia day-to-day; LAC without Ingram, Strus, Miller | 8.8 pts toward LAL |
| MEM at GS | NBA | GS without Butler, Porzingis, Moody; Podziemski, Bassey day-to-day; MEM without Coward; Stewart day-to-day | 7.7 pts against GS |
| ATL at CHA | NBA | CHA without Knueppel, White, Williams; ATL without Gueye | 7.6 pts toward ATL |
| HOU at SA | NBA | SA without Harris, Johnson; Fox day-to-day; HOU without Sheppard; Adams questionable | 3.2 pts against SA |
| NO at UTAH | NBA | UTAH without Nurkic, Alexander; Bradley day-to-day | 2.7 pts against UTAH |
| CHI at MIL | NBA | CHI without Claxton; Hawkins questionable, Collins probable | 2.7 pts toward MIL |
| TOR at WSH | NBA | WSH without Watkins, Vukcevic | 1.8 pts toward TOR |
| MTL at CHI | NHL | CHI: Byram GTD; MTL without Suzuki, Demidov; Matheson GTD | 1.5 pts against MTL |
| NY at BOS | NBA | BOS without Carter | 1.2 pts against BOS |
| POR at SAC | NBA | SAC without Raynaud, Cardwell; Monk day-to-day; POR without Sharpe, Carlson, Youngblood | 1.1 pts against POR |
| MIN at ORL | NBA | ORL without Black, Penda, Isaac; MIN without DiVincenzo | 1.1 pts against ORL |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | NBA | 2.3K km since the last game | NO at UTAH | UTAH 57% (our pick is the other side) |
| UTAH | NBA | 2.0K km since the last game | NO at UTAH | UTAH 57% (our pick) |
| MEM | NBA | 2.9K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | MEM at GS | GS 60% (our pick is the other side) |
| COL | NHL | 2.6K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | TBL at COL | COL 54% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 22)
NFL: 0-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at CHI | NE | 54% | +130 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | Over 195.5 passing yards | 66% | 308 | Hit |
| D'Andre Swift | Over 59.5 rushing yards | 65% | 78 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (+133) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+436) missed.
NBA: 2-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN at OKC | OKC | 72% | -340 | Hit |
| CLE at PHI | PHI | 58% | -142 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 29.5 points | 66% | 17 | Miss |
| Nikola Jokic | Over 22.5 points | 68% | 13 | Miss |
| Jaylen Brown | Over 25.5 points | 69% | 21 | Miss |
| LeBron James | Over 20.5 points | 68% | 17 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+121) hit; the props parlay (+372) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+586) missed.
NHL: 4-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA at NJD | NJD | 65% | -218 | Hit |
| WPG at DAL | DAL | 64% | -205 | Hit |
| MIN at CGY | MIN | 64% | -205 | Miss |
| DET at VAN | DET | 60% | -170 | Hit |
| UTA at SEA | UTA | 60% | -170 | Miss |
| NSH at BOS | BOS | 58% | -155 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 87% | 3 | Hit |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 90% | 3 | Hit |
| Macklin Celebrini | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 84% | 2 | Miss |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 77% | 4 | Hit |
| Auston Matthews | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 90% | 4 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1240) missed; the props parlay (+120) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+358) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 10 since Oct 1 | 17-11 | -3.52 u | -12.6% | 21-8 (72%) | 0-3 |
| MLB | 18 since Sep 30 | 18-14 | -0.74 u | -2.3% | 31-22 (58%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 3 since Oct 20 | 8-2 | +2.01 u | +20.1% | 3-11 (21%) | 2-1 |
| NHL | 23 since Sep 30 | 61-29 | +5.53 u | +6.1% | 74-35 (68%) | 5-18 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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