Best Bets for Thursday, October 22: OKC 72%, NJD 65% and 7 More Picks Across the NFL, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
9 picks to win on the Model Cards for Thursday, October 22, across the NFL, NBA and NHL, plus 11 props. The firmest call is Oklahoma City Thunder at 72% (-340). Yesterday's cards: NBA 5-0 with the parlay hitting, NHL 0-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN at OKC | Lock | OKC | 72% | -340 | 74% | -2 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 0 games in) +16.8, venue +6.6 |
| ANA at NJD | Lock | NJD | 65% | -218 | 66% | 0 | NHL | expected goals +10.2, expected goals (5v5) +5.0 |
| WPG at DAL | Play | DAL | 64% | -205 | 64% | 0 | NHL | expected goals +5.3, goal margin +3.4 |
| MIN at CGY | Play | MIN | 64% | -205 | 64% | 0 | NHL | goal margin +7.8, expected goals +7.7 |
| DET at VAN | Play | DET | 60% | -170 | 60% | 0 | NHL | expected goals +10.8, expected goals (5v5) +8.5 |
| UTA at SEA | Play | UTA | 60% | -170 | 60% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +10.9, expected goals +10.2 |
| NSH at BOS | Play | BOS | 58% | -155 | 58% | 0 | NHL | goal margin +5.1, venue +2.9 |
| CLE at PHI | Lean | PHI | 57% | -148 | 57% | 0 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 0 games in) +32.0, star availability +1.1 |
| NE at CHI | Lean | NE | 53% | +130 | 42% | +11 | NFL | epa per play +7.7, point margin +0.8 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Oklahoma City Thunder over Denver Nuggets, 72%, -340. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 0 games in) (+16.8 points), venue (+6.6 points), head to head (+3.0 points). The case against is rest (-1.9 points). The line OKC -8.5, total 235.5. DEN out: Julian Strawther. OKC out: Nikola Topic, Otega Oweh, Thomas Sorber.
New Jersey Devils over Anaheim Ducks, 65%, -218. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+10.2 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.0 points), streak (+2.1 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.5 points). The line NJD -1.5, total 6.5. ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Troy Terry. NJD starter: Nico Daws.
Dallas Stars over Winnipeg Jets, 64%, -205. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+5.3 points), goal margin (+3.4 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.1 points). The case against is power play (-1.4 points). The line DAL -1.5, total 5.5. WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (projected). WPG out: Connor Hellebuyck, Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger (projected). DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell, Luke Krys.
Minnesota Wild over Calgary Flames, 64%, -205. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+7.8 points), expected goals (+7.7 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.5 points). The case against is recent form (-4.9 points). The line MIN -1.5, total 5.5. MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Olli Maatta, Marcus Foligno. CGY starter: Devin Cooley (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek.
Detroit Red Wings over Vancouver Canucks, 60%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+10.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+8.5 points), goal margin (+4.1 points). The case against is recent form (-5.3 points). The line DET -1.5, total 6.5. DET starter: John Gibson (projected). DET out: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson, J.T. Compher. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Mackenzie MacEachern.
Utah Mammoth over Seattle Kraken, 60%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+10.9 points), expected goals (+10.2 points), venue (+3.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (-3.8 points). The line UTA -1.5, total 6.5. UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone. SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson.
Boston Bruins over Nashville Predators, 58%, -155. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+5.1 points), venue (+2.9 points), high-danger chances (+1.4 points). The case against is rest (-3.2 points). The line BOS -1.5, total 5.5. NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). BOS starter: Michael DiPietro.
Philadelphia 76ers over Cleveland Cavaliers, 57%, -148. Lean on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 0 games in) (+32.0 points), star availability (+1.1 points), streak (+0.8 points). The case against is head to head (-9.0 points). The line PHI -3.5, total 236.5. CLE out: Khalifa Diop, Nae'Qwan Tomlin. PHI out: Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow, Tacko Fall.
New England Patriots over Chicago Bears, 53%, +130. Lean on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+7.7 points), point margin (+0.8 points), venue (+0.8 points). The case against is offense (-1.2 points). We like this side 11 points more than the price does. The line CHI -3.0, total 50.5. NE starter: Drake Maye. NE out: Romeo Doubs, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Ben Brown, Carlton Davis III, Channing Canada. CHI starter: Caleb Williams. CHI out: Kyle Monangai, Anthony Johnson Jr., Dayo Odeyingbo, Jack Sanborn, Montez Sweat. Crew: Alan Eck has been tough on CHI (+1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 0-3 in 3 games).
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | CAR at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.8 | 90% | NHL |
| Auston Matthews | Lock | TOR | NYR at TOR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.8 | 90% | NHL |
| Brady Tkachuk | Lock | FLA | FLA at PIT | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.3 | 87% | NHL |
| Macklin Celebrini | Lock | SJS | SJS at OTT | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.1 | 84% | NHL |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Play | MIN | MIN at CGY | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.6 | 77% | NHL |
| Jaylen Brown | Lean | PHI | CLE at PHI | Over 25.5 points | 30.3 | 69% | NBA |
| Nikola Jokic | Lean | DEN | DEN at OKC | Over 22.5 points | 26.5 | 68% | NBA |
| LeBron James | Lean | PHI | CLE at PHI | Over 20.5 points | 24.1 | 68% | NBA |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Lean | OKC | DEN at OKC | Over 29.5 points | 34.1 | 66% | NBA |
| Caleb Williams | Lean | CHI | NE at CHI | Over 195.5 passing yards | 225.4 | 66% | NFL |
| D'Andre Swift | Lean | CHI | NE at CHI | Over 61.5 rushing yards | 79.5 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Caleb Williams over 195.5 passing yards; D'Andre Swift over 61.5 rushing yards | +133 (fair) | 43% | +133 |
| NFL | Best of both | NE; Caleb Williams over 195.5 passing yards; D'Andre Swift over 61.5 rushing yards | +437 | 23% | +342 |
| NBA | Games | OKC; PHI | +117 | 41% | +142 |
| NBA | Props | Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 22.5 points; LeBron James over 20.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 points | +372 (fair) | 21% | +372 |
| NBA | Best of both | OKC; PHI; Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 22.5 points; LeBron James over 20.5 points | +574 | 13% | +653 |
| NHL | Games | NJD; DAL; MIN; DET; UTA; BOS | +1240 | 6% | +1661 |
| NHL | Props | Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal; Macklin Celebrini over 2.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal | +120 (fair) | 46% | +120 |
| NHL | Best of both | NJD; DAL; MIN; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal | +358 | 19% | +427 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at CHI | NFL | NE | 53% | 42% | +11 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJS at OTT | NHL | Goalies (OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt | 3.1 pts against OTT |
| NE at CHI | NFL | CHI without Edwards, Monangai, Sanborn; Stevenson day-to-day; NE without Doubs, Davis; Byard, Elliss day-to-day | 1.0 pts against NE |
| MIN at CGY | NHL | CGY without Huberdeau, Honzek; MIN without Maatta, Spurgeon, Faber | 1.0 pts against MIN |
| NYR at TOR | NHL | TOR without Tavares, Tanev, Joshua; Rifai GTD; NYR without Sykora, Veleno | 0.9 pts toward NYR |
| SJS at OTT | NHL | OTT without Chabot, Eklund; SJS: Wennberg GTD | 0.8 pts against OTT |
| FLA at PIT | NHL | PIT without Rust, Kindel, Riemsdyk; Girard GTD; FLA without Marchand, Barkov | 0.8 pts against PIT |
| ANA at NJD | NHL | NJD without Casey; ANA without Poehling, Terry; Caulfield GTD | 0.7 pts toward NJD |
| NYR at TOR | NHL | Goalies (NYR: Garand in for Shesterkin, out for the season | 0.6 pts against NYR |
| DEN at OKC | NBA | OKC without Topic; DEN without Strawther; Jones day-to-day | 0.5 pts toward OKC |
| CAR at EDM | NHL | EDM without Savoie, Nugent-Hopkins, Dickinson; CAR without Hall, Staal, Nikishin; Jarvis, Jankowski GTD | 0.5 pts against CAR |
| CLE at PHI | NBA | PHI without Barlow, Hukporti; Wade questionable; CLE without Tomlin; Allen questionable | 0.4 pts toward PHI |
| UTA at SEA | NHL | SEA without Lindgren; UTA without Carcone, Lamoureux; Marino GTD | 0.4 pts against UTA |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | NYR at TOR | NYR 50.3% (our pick is the other side) |
| BOS | NHL | 2.5K km since the last game | NSH at BOS | BOS 58% (our pick) |
| SJS | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, road game 5 | SJS at OTT | OTT 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| OTT | NHL | second of a back to back | SJS at OTT | OTT 55% (our pick) |
| VGK | NHL | 2.2K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | VGK at STL | VGK 53% (our pick) |
| CAR | NHL | road game 4 | CAR at EDM | CAR 52% (our pick) |
| FLA | NHL | second of a back to back | FLA at PIT | PIT 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| PIT | NHL | 2.7K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | FLA at PIT | PIT 51% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 21)
NBA: 5-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at TOR | TOR | 78% | -470 | Hit |
| DAL at HOU | HOU | 77% | -425 | Hit |
| MIL at WSH | WSH | 62% | -175 | Hit |
| GS at LAL | LAL | 73% | -230 | Hit |
| SAC at LAC | LAC | 62% | -185 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | Over 20.5 points | 70% | 20 | Miss |
| LaMelo Ball | Over 21.5 points | 65% | 21 | Miss |
| Anthony Davis | Over 20.5 points | 66% | 34 | Hit |
| Luka Doncic | Over 30.5 points | 68% | 28 | Miss |
| Stephen Curry | Over 28.5 points | 68% | 23 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+420) hit; the props parlay (+619) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+570) missed.
NHL: 0-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at BUF | BUF | 63% | -205 | Miss |
| FLA at OTT | FLA | 50.0% | -110 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 85% | 3 | Hit |
| Matthew Tkachuk | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 87% | 2 | Hit |
| Tage Thompson | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 74% | 3 | Hit |
| Rasmus Dahlin | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 90% | 4 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+184) missed; the props parlay (+102) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+325) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 9 since Oct 1 | 17-10 | -2.52 u | -9.3% | 19-8 (70%) | 0-3 |
| MLB | 18 since Sep 30 | 18-14 | -0.74 u | -2.3% | 31-22 (58%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 2 since Oct 20 | 6-2 | +1.01 u | +12.7% | 3-7 (30%) | 1-1 |
| NHL | 22 since Sep 30 | 57-27 | +5.35 u | +6.4% | 70-34 (67%) | 5-17 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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