Best Bets for Tuesday, October 27: SA 88%, BOS 82% and 7 More Picks Across the MLB, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
9 picks to win on the Model Cards for Tuesday, October 27, across the MLB, NBA and NHL, plus 12 props. The firmest call is San Antonio Spurs at 88% (-1650). Yesterday's cards: NFL 1-0, MLB 0-1, NBA 5-2, NHL 0-3. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC at SA | Lock | SA | 88% | -1650 | 91% | -3 | NBA | injuries (SA without Harris; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell) +4.5, net rating, last 10 +3.3 |
| BKN at BOS | Lock | BOS | 82% | -575 | 82% | 0 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.9, head to head +5.6 |
| VAN at ANA | Play | ANA | 64% | -205 | 64% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.5, expected goals +4.9 |
| BOS at CAR | Play | CAR | 63% | -192 | 63% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +9.6, expected goals +4.6 |
| POR at LAL | Play | LAL | 60% | -142 | 56% | +4 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 2 games in) +8.0, injuries (LAL without Thiero; POR without Sharpe, Youngblood; Henderson day-to-day) +5.1 |
| DET at NY | Play | NY | 60% | -155 | 58% | +1 | NBA | venue +4.0, preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 3 games in) +3.9 |
| OTT at VGK | Play | VGK | 59% | -162 | 59% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +3.0, goalies (VGK: Hill in for Hart; OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt) +2.8 |
| BUF at SJS | Lean | BUF | 56% | -142 | 56% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +8.1, venue +4.1 |
| MIL at TB | Lean | MIL | 55% | -125 | 53% | +2 | MLB | streak +2.6, starting pitchers +1.9 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on MIL at TB: it makes the game 8.1 runs against a posted 7.
Why each pick
San Antonio Spurs over Sacramento Kings, 88%, -1650. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (SA without Harris; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell) (+4.5 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.3 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 3 games in) (+1.8 points). The case against is venue (-2.8 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have SA as the more likely winner. The line SA -18.5, total 231.5. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Dylan Cardwell, Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.
Boston Celtics over Brooklyn Nets, 82%, -575. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.9 points), head to head (+5.6 points), venue (+5.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 3 games in) (-6.6 points). The line BOS -11.5, total 222.5. BKN out: Tyler Bilodeau. BOS out: Devin Carter. BOS is on the second of a back to back.
Anaheim Ducks over Vancouver Canucks, 64%, -205. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.5 points), expected goals (+4.9 points), goal margin (+4.5 points). The case against is recent form (-3.6 points). The line ANA -1.5, total 6.5. VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Mackenzie MacEachern. ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Pavel Mintyukov, Troy Terry.
Carolina Hurricanes over Boston Bruins, 63%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.6 points), expected goals (+4.6 points), shot share (Corsi) (+4.1 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.9 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (likely). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin.
Los Angeles Lakers over Portland Trail Blazers, 60%, -142. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 2 games in) (+8.0 points), injuries (LAL without Thiero; POR without Sharpe, Youngblood; Henderson day-to-day) (+5.1 points), venue (+4.8 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-2.6 points). We like this side 4 points more than the price does. The line LAL -2.5, total 235.5. POR out: Chris Youngblood, Shaedon Sharpe. LAL out: Adou Thiero.
New York Knicks over Detroit Pistons, 60%, -155. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+4.0 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 3 games in) (+3.9 points), injuries (NY without Alvarado; DET without Duren; Joe day-to-day) (+3.4 points). The case against is head to head (-8.0 points). The line NY -3.5, total 219.5. DET out: Jalen Duren. NY out: Jose Alvarado.
Vegas Golden Knights over Ottawa Senators, 59%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+3.0 points), goalies (VGK: Hill in for Hart; OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt) (+2.8 points), venue (+2.2 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.1 points). The line VGK -1.5, total 6.5. OTT starter: Samuel Ersson (projected). OTT out: Linus Ullmark, Thomas Chabot, William Eklund. VGK starter: Adin Hill (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon.
Buffalo Sabres over San Jose Sharks, 56%, -142. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.1 points), venue (+4.1 points), expected goals (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (-5.0 points). The line BUF -1.5, total 6.5. BUF starter: Colten Ellis (projected). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Jiri Kulich, Sam Carrick, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected).
Milwaukee Brewers over Tampa Bay Rays, 55%, -125. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: streak (+2.6 points), starting pitchers (+1.9 points), clutch hitting (+1.6 points). The case against is venue (-3.4 points). The line MIL -1.5, total 7. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brian Fitzpatrick, Quinn Priester. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | Lock | BOS | BOS at CAR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 93% | NHL |
| Brady Tkachuk | Lock | FLA | FLA at WPG | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.2 | 85% | NHL |
| Griffin Jax | Lock | TB | MIL at TB | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 3.6 | 81% | MLB |
| Mark Stone | Play | VGK | OTT at VGK | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.1 | 76% | NHL |
| Jackson Chourio | Play | MIL | MIL at TB | Over 0.5 hits | 1.4 | 76% | MLB |
| Macklin Celebrini | Play | SJS | BUF at SJS | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 75% | NHL |
| Cade Cunningham | Play | DET | DET at NY | Over 19.5 points | 23.5 | 71% | NBA |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Lean | MIN | MIN at UTA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.3 | 69% | NHL |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | SAC at SA | Over 24.5 points | 28.9 | 68% | NBA |
| Deni Avdija | Lean | POR | POR at LAL | Over 22.5 points | 26.3 | 67% | NBA |
| Domantas Sabonis | Lean | SAC | SAC at SA | Over 18.5 points | 21.3 | 65% | NBA |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | POR at LAL | Over 28.5 points | 32.8 | 65% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Props | Griffin Jax over 2.5 strikeouts; Jackson Chourio over 0.5 hits | -160 (fair) | 61% | -160 |
| MLB | Best of both | MIL; Griffin Jax over 2.5 strikeouts; Jackson Chourio over 0.5 hits | +193 | 34% | +194 |
| NBA | Games | SA; BOS; LAL; NY | +249 | 26% | +287 |
| NBA | Props | Cade Cunningham over 19.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 24.5 points; Deni Avdija over 22.5 points; Domantas Sabonis over 18.5 points; Luka Doncic over 28.5 points | +615 (fair) | 14% | +615 |
| NBA | Best of both | SA; BOS; LAL; Cade Cunningham over 19.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 24.5 points; Deni Avdija over 22.5 points | +550 | 14% | +606 |
| NHL | Games | ANA; CAR; VGK; BUF | +524 | 13% | +645 |
| NHL | Props | David Pastrnak over 1.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal; Mark Stone over 1.5 shots on goal; Macklin Celebrini over 2.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal | +220 (fair) | 31% | +220 |
| NHL | Best of both | ANA; CAR; VGK; David Pastrnak over 1.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal; Mark Stone over 1.5 shots on goal | +510 | 14% | +591 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR at LAL | NBA | LAL | 60% | 56% | +4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| POR at LAL | NBA | LAL without Thiero; POR without Sharpe, Youngblood; Henderson day-to-day | 5.1 pts toward LAL |
| SAC at SA | NBA | SA without Harris; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell | 4.5 pts toward SA |
| DET at NY | NBA | NY without Alvarado; DET without Duren; Joe day-to-day | 3.4 pts toward NY |
| OTT at VGK | NHL | Goalies (VGK: Hill in for Hart; OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt | 2.8 pts toward VGK |
| CBJ at PHI | NHL | PHI without Tippett, Konecny, Ristolainen; CBJ without Provorov; Fabbro GTD | 1.5 pts toward CBJ |
| MTL at STL | NHL | STL without Mailloux; Toropchenko GTD; MTL without Suzuki, Demidov | 1.3 pts toward STL |
| NYI at NSH | NHL | NYI without Maccelli, Ritchie, Barzal | 1.2 pts toward NSH |
| BKN at BOS | NBA | BOS without Carter | 1.0 pts against BOS |
| VAN at ANA | NHL | ANA without Terry, Poehling; Mintyukov GTD | 0.8 pts against ANA |
| BOS at CAR | NHL | CAR without Jankowski, Staal, Nikishin; Hall GTD | 0.6 pts against CAR |
| LAK at CHI | NHL | CHI: Byram GTD; LAK without Zuccarello, Fiala, Turcotte | 0.6 pts against LAK |
| NJD at DAL | NHL | DAL without Duchene, Bäck; Steel, Lindell GTD; NJD without Casey | 0.6 pts against DAL |
| OTT at VGK | NHL | VGK without Olofsson, Wotherspoon; OTT without Chabot, Eklund | 0.5 pts toward VGK |
| BUF at SJS | NHL | SJS without Chernyshov; Wennberg GTD; BUF without Grzelcyk, Timmins; Kulich GTD, Danforth day-to-day | 0.4 pts toward BUF |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | NBA | 2.3K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | SAC at SA | SA 88% (our pick is the other side) |
| BOS | NBA | second of a back to back | BKN at BOS | BOS 82% (our pick) |
| LAK | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days, road game 5 | LAK at CHI | LAK 53% (our pick) |
| ANA | NHL | 3.8K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | VAN at ANA | ANA 64% (our pick) |
| BUF | NHL | 3.9K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | BUF at SJS | BUF 56% (our pick) |
| SJS | NHL | 4.3K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | BUF at SJS | BUF 56% (our pick is the other side) |
| NJD | NHL | 2.2K km since the last game | NJD at DAL | DAL 53% (our pick is the other side) |
| FLA | NHL | road game 4 | FLA at WPG | FLA 55% (our pick) |
| MIN | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, road game 5 | MIN at UTA | UTA 53% (our pick is the other side) |
| OTT | NHL | 3.4K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | OTT at VGK | VGK 59% (our pick is the other side) |
| VGK | NHL | 2.8K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | OTT at VGK | VGK 59% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 26)
NFL: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at PHI | DAL | 65% | -225 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | Over 224.5 passing yards | 65% | 212 | Miss |
| Javonte Williams | Over 50.5 rushing yards | 65% | 155 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (+135) missed.
MLB: 0-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at TB | TB | 52% | -119 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 73% | 3 | Miss |
| Freddy Peralta | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 85% | 4 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (-167) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+194) missed.
NBA: 5-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at BOS | BOS | 83% | -750 | Hit |
| DAL at MIA | MIA | 74% | -285 | Miss |
| PHX at OKC | OKC | 73% | -325 | Hit |
| GS at DEN | DEN | 72% | -270 | Miss |
| ATL at HOU | HOU | 62% | -192 | Hit |
| MIN at CLE | CLE | 60% | -155 | Hit |
| WSH at CHA | CHA | 58% | -142 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Over 24.5 points | 69% | 19 | Miss |
| Tyrese Haliburton | Over 21.5 points | 68% | 22 | Hit |
| Jayson Tatum | Over 20.5 points | 68% | 23 | Hit |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Over 25.5 points | 68% | 29 | Hit |
| Alperen Sengun | Over 19.5 points | 68% | 29 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1070) missed; the props parlay (+578) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+522) missed.
NHL: 0-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at EDM | EDM | 61% | -180 | Miss |
| TOR at CGY | TOR | 54% | -135 | Miss |
| LAK at NYR | NYR | 54% | -135 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 89% | 2 | Hit |
| Leon Draisaitl | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 67% | 3 | Hit |
| Auston Matthews | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | 1 | Miss |
| Adam Fox | Over 0.5 assists | 74% | 0 | Miss |
| Jack Roslovic | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 82% | 1 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+371) missed; the props parlay (+195) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+594) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 12 since Oct 1 | 22-14 | -4.06 u | -11.3% | 24-12 (67%) | 0-4 |
| MLB | 21 since Sep 30 | 20-15 | -0.37 u | -1.0% | 34-25 (58%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 7 since Oct 20 | 25-8 | +1.56 u | +4.7% | 16-18 (47%) | 3-4 |
| NHL | 27 since Sep 30 | 70-34 | +5.77 u | +5.5% | 83-45 (65%) | 6-21 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
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