Best Bets for Monday, October 26: BOS 83%, OKC 77% and 9 More Picks Across the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
11 picks to win on the Model Cards for Monday, October 26, across the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL, plus 14 props. The firmest call is Boston Celtics at 83% (-750). Yesterday's cards: NFL 4-3, NBA 4-1, NHL 3-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at BOS | Lock | BOS | 83% | -750 | 85% | -2 | NBA | venue +5.1, net rating, last 10 +4.9 |
| PHX at OKC | Lock | OKC | 77% | -410 | 77% | -1 | NBA | venue +6.4, head to head +6.0 |
| DAL at MIA | Lock | MIA | 75% | -325 | 73% | +2 | NBA | injuries (DAL without Marshall, Aldama, Lively; Flagg day-to-day) +7.9, star availability +2.8 |
| GS at DEN | Lock | DEN | 73% | -285 | 71% | +2 | NBA | venue +7.1, injuries (DEN without Jones, Strawther; Johnson day-to-day; GS without Butler, Porzingis, Moody; Santos questionable, Bassey day-to-day) +6.6 |
| DAL at PHI | Play | DAL | 64% | -205 | 64% | -1 | NFL | injuries (PHI without Smith, Barkley, Wicks; Hunt day-to-day; DAL without Winters) +6.7, offense +5.4 |
| ATL at HOU | Play | HOU | 63% | -205 | 64% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +8.2, head to head +6.9 |
| DET at EDM | Play | EDM | 61% | -180 | 62% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +4.3, preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) +3.4 |
| MIN at CLE | Play | CLE | 61% | -180 | 62% | -1 | NBA | venue +8.5, preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 3 games in) +3.8 |
| TOR at CGY | Lean | TOR | 57% | -155 | 58% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +6.8, preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 13 games in) +3.8 |
| LAK at NYR | Lean | NYR | 54% | -130 | 54% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +4.9, expected goals +2.8 |
| MIL at TB | Lean | TB | 52% | -118 | 52% | 0 | MLB | venue +3.5, home/road split +2.3 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on MIL at TB: it makes the game 8.3 runs against a posted 7.
Why each pick
Boston Celtics over Chicago Bulls, 83%, -750. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+5.1 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.9 points), head to head (+3.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 3 games in) (-5.3 points). The line BOS -14.5, total 231.5. CHI out: Nic Claxton. BOS out: Devin Carter.
Oklahoma City Thunder over Phoenix Suns, 77%, -410. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+6.4 points), head to head (+6.0 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.6 points). The case against is injuries (OKC without Williams, Topic; Wallace, Williams day-to-day; PHX without Williams; Ighodaro day-to-day) (-2.9 points). The line OKC -10.5, total 220.5. PHX out: Mark Williams. OKC out: Jalen Williams, Nikola Topic, Otega Oweh, Thomas Sorber. OKC is on the second of a back to back.
Miami Heat over Dallas Mavericks, 75%, -325. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (DAL without Marshall, Aldama, Lively; Flagg day-to-day) (+7.9 points), star availability (+2.8 points), venue (+2.3 points). The case against is head to head (-2.3 points). The line MIA -8.5, total 239.5. DAL out: Caleb Martin, Dereck Lively II, Naji Marshall, Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic.
Denver Nuggets over Golden State Warriors, 73%, -285. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+7.1 points), injuries (DEN without Jones, Strawther; Johnson day-to-day; GS without Butler, Porzingis, Moody; Santos questionable, Bassey day-to-day) (+6.6 points), star availability (+4.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 3 games in) (-4.9 points). The line DEN -7.5, total 236.5. GS out: Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody. DEN out: Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones.
Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles, 64%, -205. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: injuries (PHI without Smith, Barkley, Wicks; Hunt day-to-day; DAL without Winters) (+6.7 points), offense (+5.4 points), recent form (+2.5 points). The case against is epa per play (-4.9 points). The line DAL -4.5, total 43.5. DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: KaVontae Turpin, Dee Winters, Drew Shelton, Marist Liufau, P.J. Locke. PHI starter: Tanner McKee. PHI out: Jalen Hurts, Tank Bigsby, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, Eli Stowers.
Houston Rockets over Atlanta Hawks, 63%, -205. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+8.2 points), head to head (+6.9 points), pace (+3.0 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 3 games in) (-7.3 points). The line HOU -4.5, total 229.5. ATL out: Henri Veesaar, Mouhamed Gueye. HOU out: Steven Adams.
Edmonton Oilers over Detroit Red Wings, 61%, -180. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+4.3 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) (+3.4 points), venue (+2.4 points). The case against is shot share (Corsi) (-1.7 points). The line EDM -1.5, total 6.5. DET starter: John Gibson (projected). DET out: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark.
Cleveland Cavaliers over Minnesota Timberwolves, 61%, -180. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+8.5 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 3 games in) (+3.8 points), rest (+3.5 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-3.0 points). The line CLE -4.5, total 233.5. MIN out: Donte DiVincenzo. MIN is on the second of a back to back.
Toronto Maple Leafs over Calgary Flames, 57%, -155. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+6.8 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 13 games in) (+3.8 points), head to head (+3.0 points). The case against is schedule load (-2.2 points). The line TOR -1.5, total 6.5. TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares, Max Domi, Chris Tanev, Marshall Rifai. CGY starter: Devin Cooley. CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek.
New York Rangers over Los Angeles Kings, 54%, -130. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+4.9 points), expected goals (+2.8 points), penalty kill (+1.8 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-3.6 points). The line NYR -1.5, total 5.5. LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected). NYR starter: James Reimer. NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.
Tampa Bay Rays over Milwaukee Brewers, 52%, -118. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: venue (+3.5 points), home/road split (+2.3 points), run margin (+1.5 points). The case against is streak (-2.6 points). The line TB -1.5, total 7. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brian Fitzpatrick, Quinn Priester. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | Lock | TOR | TOR at CGY | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 92% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | DET at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.8 | 89% | NHL |
| Freddy Peralta | Lock | TB | MIL at TB | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 3.9 | 85% | MLB |
| Jack Roslovic | Lock | TOR | TOR at CGY | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.4 | 82% | NHL |
| Adam Fox | Play | NYR | LAK at NYR | Over 0.5 assists | 1.4 | 74% | NHL |
| Robert Gasser | Play | MIL | MIL at TB | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 4.6 | 73% | MLB |
| Nikola Jokic | Lean | DEN | GS at DEN | Over 24.5 points | 29.1 | 69% | NBA |
| Alperen Sengun | Lean | HOU | ATL at HOU | Over 19.5 points | 23 | 68% | NBA |
| Jayson Tatum | Lean | BOS | CHI at BOS | Over 20.5 points | 24.1 | 68% | NBA |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Lean | MIA | DAL at MIA | Over 25.5 points | 29.9 | 68% | NBA |
| Tyrese Haliburton | Lean | IND | IND at MIL | Over 21.5 points | 25.2 | 68% | NBA |
| Leon Draisaitl | Lean | EDM | DET at EDM | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.2 | 67% | NHL |
| Javonte Williams | Lean | DAL | DAL at PHI | Over 49.5 rushing yards | 64.1 | 65% | NFL |
| Dak Prescott | Lean | DAL | DAL at PHI | Over 219.5 passing yards | 252.6 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Javonte Williams over 49.5 rushing yards; Dak Prescott over 219.5 passing yards | +134 (fair) | 43% | +134 |
| MLB | Props | Freddy Peralta over 2.5 strikeouts; Robert Gasser over 3.5 strikeouts | -167 (fair) | 63% | -167 |
| MLB | Best of both | TB; Freddy Peralta over 2.5 strikeouts; Robert Gasser over 3.5 strikeouts | +195 | 32% | +208 |
| NBA | Games | BOS; OKC; MIA; DEN; HOU; CLE | +476 | 13% | +655 |
| NBA | Props | Nikola Jokic over 24.5 points; Alperen Sengun over 19.5 points; Jayson Tatum over 20.5 points; Giannis Antetokounmpo over 25.5 points; Tyrese Haliburton over 21.5 points | +578 (fair) | 15% | +578 |
| NBA | Best of both | BOS; OKC; MIA; Nikola Jokic over 24.5 points; Alperen Sengun over 19.5 points; Jayson Tatum over 20.5 points | +472 | 15% | +551 |
| NHL | Games | EDM; TOR; NYR | +353 | 19% | +437 |
| NHL | Props | Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Jack Roslovic over 1.5 shots on goal; Adam Fox over 0.5 assists; Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal | +195 (fair) | 34% | +195 |
| NHL | Best of both | EDM; TOR; NYR; Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Jack Roslovic over 1.5 shots on goal | +567 | 13% | +691 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM at UTAH | NBA | UTAH | 54% | 49.6% | +5 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at MIA | NBA | DAL without Marshall, Aldama, Lively; Flagg day-to-day | 7.9 pts toward MIA |
| DAL at PHI | NFL | PHI without Smith, Barkley, Wicks; Hunt day-to-day; DAL without Winters | 6.7 pts toward DAL |
| GS at DEN | NBA | DEN without Jones, Strawther; Johnson day-to-day; GS without Butler, Porzingis, Moody; Santos questionable, Bassey day-to-day | 6.6 pts toward DEN |
| WSH at CHA | NBA | CHA without Knueppel, White, Williams; Reid day-to-day; WSH without Watkins, Vukcevic | 6.6 pts against CHA |
| IND at MIL | NBA | IND without Sheppard, McConnell, Furphy; Zubac day-to-day | 3.5 pts against IND |
| PHX at OKC | NBA | OKC without Williams, Topic; Wallace, Williams day-to-day; PHX without Williams; Ighodaro day-to-day | 2.9 pts against OKC |
| ATL at HOU | NBA | HOU without Smart, Adams; ATL without Gueye | 2.4 pts against HOU |
| MIN at CLE | NBA | MIN without DiVincenzo | 2.2 pts toward CLE |
| CHI at BOS | NBA | BOS without Carter; CHI without Claxton; Williams questionable | 1.2 pts toward BOS |
| LAK at NYR | NHL | NYR without Sykora, Veleno; LAK without Fiala, Turcotte; Byfield GTD | 0.6 pts toward NYR |
| DET at EDM | NHL | EDM without Ekholm, Savoie, Dickinson; DET without Kasper, Edvinsson, Appleton | 0.5 pts against EDM |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | NBA | second of a back to back | PHX at OKC | OKC 77% (our pick) |
| IND | NBA | second of a back to back | IND at MIL | IND 58% (our pick) |
| MIN | NBA | second of a back to back | MIN at CLE | CLE 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| MEM | NBA | second of a back to back | MEM at UTAH | UTAH 54% (our pick is the other side) |
| UTAH | NBA | second of a back to back | MEM at UTAH | UTAH 54% (our pick) |
| TOR | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | TOR at CGY | TOR 57% (our pick) |
| DET | NHL | road game 4 | DET at EDM | EDM 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| LAK | NHL | road game 4 | LAK at NYR | NYR 54% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 25)
NFL: 4-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND at MIN | MIN | 79% | -325 | Hit |
| NYG at HOU | HOU | 78% | -520 | Miss |
| CLE at TEN | CLE | 68% | -135 | Hit |
| SF at ATL | SF | 66% | -148 | Miss |
| TB at CAR | CAR | 60% | -166 | Miss |
| DEN at ARI | DEN | 70% | -238 | Hit |
| LAR at LV | LAR | 62% | -185 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | Over 281.5 passing yards | 65% | 153 | Miss |
| Bijan Robinson | Over 82.5 rushing yards | 65% | 63 | Miss |
| Brock Purdy | Over 255.5 passing yards | 65% | 288 | Hit |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Over 76.5 rushing yards | 65% | 116 | Hit |
| Matthew Stafford | Over 263.5 passing yards | 65% | 195 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1494) missed; the props parlay (+747) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+697) missed.
NBA: 4-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL at UTAH | LAL | 63% | -250 | Hit |
| IND at BKN | IND | 62% | -218 | Hit |
| LAC at OKC | OKC | 88% | -1350 | Hit |
| ORL at NY | NY | 72% | -270 | Miss |
| TOR at MIN | MIN | 59% | -166 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Over 30.5 points | 66% | 52 | Hit |
| Tyrese Haliburton | Over 20.5 points | 68% | 24 | Hit |
| Cade Cunningham | Over 22.5 points | 70% | 26 | Hit |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 27.5 points | 69% | 34 | Hit |
| Domantas Sabonis | Over 18.5 points | 68% | 15 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+382) missed; the props parlay (+578) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+525) missed.
NHL: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA at CHI | FLA | 62% | -185 | Hit |
| COL at NSH | COL | 66% | -238 | Miss |
| NYI at DAL | DAL | 63% | -185 | Hit |
| MIN at VAN | MIN | 62% | -192 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 69% | 1 | Miss |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 84% | 2 | Miss |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 75% | 2 | Miss |
| Matt Boldy | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 86% | 3 | Hit |
| Cole Caufield | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 70% | 0 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+413) missed; the props parlay (+281) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+512) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 11 since Oct 1 | 21-14 | -4.51 u | -12.9% | 23-11 (68%) | 0-4 |
| MLB | 20 since Sep 30 | 20-14 | +0.63 u | +1.9% | 33-24 (58%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 6 since Oct 20 | 20-6 | +1.25 u | +4.8% | 12-17 (41%) | 3-3 |
| NHL | 26 since Sep 30 | 70-31 | +8.77 u | +8.7% | 81-42 (66%) | 6-20 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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