Best Bets for Friday, October 30: BOS 84%, DET 73% and 8 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
10 picks to win on the Model Cards for Friday, October 30, across the NBA and NHL, plus 10 props. The firmest call is Boston Celtics at 84% (-900). Yesterday's cards: NFL 1-0, NBA 2-1, NHL 4-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at BOS | Lock | BOS | 84% | -900 | 86% | -2 | NBA | venue +4.7, head to head +3.9 |
| DET at BKN | Lock | DET | 73% | -325 | 73% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.4, venue +7.1 |
| IND at MIA | Lock | MIA | 72% | -325 | 73% | -1 | NBA | injuries (MIA: Fontecchio day-to-day; IND without Zubac, Sheppard, McConnell; Nesmith day-to-day, Nembhard probable) +5.5, venue +2.3 |
| LAC at MIN | Lock | MIN | 71% | -278 | 70% | +1 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 4 games in) +10.2, venue +4.6 |
| WPG at FLA | Lock | FLA | 66% | -225 | 66% | 0 | NHL | back to back +6.6, rest +5.9 |
| ORL at TOR | Lock | TOR | 65% | -218 | 66% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +9.1, head to head +5.8 |
| HOU at DAL | Play | HOU | 65% | -238 | 68% | -3 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +4.3, head to head +3.3 |
| DEN at PHX | Play | DEN | 58% | -180 | 62% | -3 | NBA | head to head +8.1, net rating, last 10 +4.6 |
| NJD at VGK | Lean | VGK | 52% | -115 | 51% | +1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +2.7, venue +2.3 |
| SEA at CGY | Lean | SEA | 50.3% | -115 | 51% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +5.8, head to head +2.2 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Boston Celtics over Chicago Bulls, 84%, -900. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+4.7 points), head to head (+3.9 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 5 games in) (-5.4 points). The line BOS -14.5, total 235.5. CHI out: Nic Claxton. BOS out: Devin Carter.
Detroit Pistons over Brooklyn Nets, 73%, -325. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.4 points), venue (+7.1 points), head to head (+5.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 5 games in) (-10.0 points). The line DET -8.5, total 222.5. DET out: Jalen Duren. BKN out: Egor Demin, Tyler Bilodeau.
Miami Heat over Indiana Pacers, 72%, -325. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (MIA: Fontecchio day-to-day; IND without Zubac, Sheppard, McConnell; Nesmith day-to-day, Nembhard probable) (+5.5 points), venue (+2.3 points), home/road split (+2.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 5 games in) (-4.3 points). The line MIA -8.5, total 237.5. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton.
Minnesota Timberwolves over LA Clippers, 71%, -278. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 4 games in) (+10.2 points), venue (+4.6 points), head to head (+2.9 points). The case against is travel (-3.3 points). The line MIN -6.5, total 223.5. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Max Strus, Yanic Konan Niederhauser. MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo.
Florida Panthers over Winnipeg Jets, 66%, -225. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+6.6 points), rest (+5.9 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.7 points). The case against is recent form (-1.5 points). The line FLA -1.5, total 6.5. WPG starter: Nico Daws (projected). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey. WPG is on the second of a back to back. FLA starter: Akira Schmid. FLA out: Jacob Markstrom, Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.
Toronto Raptors over Orlando Magic, 65%, -218. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+9.1 points), head to head (+5.8 points), injuries (TOR without Leonard; ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda) (+2.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 4 games in) (-10.7 points). The line TOR -5.5, total 226.5. ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero. TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle.
Houston Rockets over Dallas Mavericks, 65%, -238. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+4.3 points), head to head (+3.3 points), pace (+2.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 5 games in) (-9.2 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have HOU as the more likely winner. The line HOU -6.5, total 223.5. HOU out: Marcus Smart, Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams. DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic.
Denver Nuggets over Phoenix Suns, 58%, -180. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+8.1 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.6 points), shooting (eFG) (+2.4 points). The case against is venue (-6.8 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DEN as the more likely winner. The line DEN -4.5, total 231.5. DEN out: Alpha Diallo, Cameron Johnson, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones. PHX out: Mark Williams.
Vegas Golden Knights over New Jersey Devils, 52%, -115. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+2.7 points), venue (+2.3 points), rest (+2.2 points). The case against is goalies (-1.9 points). The line VGK -1.5, total 6.5. NJD starter: Connor Hellebuyck (projected). VGK starter: Adin Hill (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon.
Seattle Kraken over Calgary Flames, 50.3%, -115. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+5.8 points), head to head (+2.2 points), shot margin (+1.8 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-3.6 points). The line SEA -1.5, total 6.5. SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson, Jared McCann. CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (projected). CGY out: Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier | Lock | NJD | NJD at VGK | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 93% | NHL |
| Jack Hughes | Lock | NJD | NJD at VGK | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 92% | NHL |
| Matthew Tkachuk | Lock | FLA | WPG at FLA | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.5 | 85% | NHL |
| Brady Tkachuk | Play | FLA | WPG at FLA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.6 | 76% | NHL |
| Joel Farabee | Play | CGY | SEA at CGY | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2 | 70% | NHL |
| Jayson Tatum | Lean | BOS | CHI at BOS | Over 21.5 points | 25.7 | 70% | NBA |
| Cade Cunningham | Lean | DET | DET at BKN | Over 21.5 points | 25.5 | 69% | NBA |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | LAL at GS | Over 27.5 points | 32.6 | 69% | NBA |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Lean | MIA | IND at MIA | Over 25.5 points | 29.7 | 67% | NBA |
| Nikola Jokic | Lean | DEN | DEN at PHX | Over 23.5 points | 27.3 | 67% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | BOS; DET; MIA; MIN; TOR; HOU; DEN | +733 | 8% | +1182 |
| NBA | Props | Jayson Tatum over 21.5 points; Cade Cunningham over 21.5 points; Luka Doncic over 27.5 points; Giannis Antetokounmpo over 25.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 23.5 points | +574 (fair) | 15% | +573 |
| NBA | Best of both | BOS; DET; MIA; Jayson Tatum over 21.5 points; Cade Cunningham over 21.5 points; Luka Doncic over 27.5 points | +470 | 15% | +578 |
| NHL | Games | FLA; VGK; SEA | +405 | 17% | +479 |
| NHL | Props | Nico Hischier over 1.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 1.5 shots on goal; Matthew Tkachuk over 1.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal; Joel Farabee over 1.5 shots on goal | +156 (fair) | 39% | +156 |
| NHL | Best of both | FLA; VGK; SEA; Nico Hischier over 1.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 1.5 shots on goal; Matthew Tkachuk over 1.5 shots on goal | +598 | 12% | +700 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN at PHX | NBA | DEN | 58% | 62% | -3 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAL at GS | NBA | GS without Butler, Porzingis, Moody; Santos day-to-day; LAL without Thiero; Williams day-to-day | 6.8 pts toward LAL |
| IND at MIA | NBA | MIA: Fontecchio day-to-day; IND without Zubac, Sheppard, McConnell; Nesmith day-to-day, Nembhard probable | 5.5 pts toward MIA |
| CHA at WSH | NBA | WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic; Johnson day-to-day; CHA without Knueppel, White, Williams | 2.8 pts toward WSH |
| NY at PHI | NBA | PHI without Barlow, Walker, Hukporti; Brown day-to-day; NY without Alvarado | 2.7 pts toward NY |
| ORL at TOR | NBA | TOR without Leonard; ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda | 2.2 pts toward TOR |
| DEN at PHX | NBA | PHX without Williams; DEN without Johnson, Jones, Strawther | 1.9 pts against DEN |
| HOU at DAL | NBA | DAL without Aldama, Lively; Marshall day-to-day; HOU without Sheppard, Smart, Adams | 1.7 pts against HOU |
| LAC at MIN | NBA | MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; LAC without Ingram, Hachimura, Strus | 1.4 pts toward MIN |
| DET at BKN | NBA | BKN without Demin; Clowney day-to-day; DET without Duren; Joe questionable | 1.4 pts against DET |
| CHI at BOS | NBA | BOS without Carter; CHI without Claxton; Smith day-to-day | 1.0 pts toward BOS |
| SEA at CGY | NHL | CGY without Huberdeau, Honzek; SEA without McCann, Lindgren | 0.5 pts against SEA |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | NBA | 2.5K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | LAC at MIN | MIN 71% (our pick is the other side) |
| MIN | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | LAC at MIN | MIN 71% (our pick) |
| DET | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | DET at BKN | DET 73% (our pick) |
| DEN | NBA | 2.1K km since the last game | DEN at PHX | DEN 58% (our pick) |
| CHI | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CHI at BOS | BOS 84% (our pick is the other side) |
| IND | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | IND at MIA | MIA 72% (our pick is the other side) |
| MIA | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | IND at MIA | MIA 72% (our pick) |
| CHA | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CHA at WSH | WSH 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| WSH | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CHA at WSH | WSH 51% (our pick) |
| NY | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | NY at PHI | NY 53% (our pick) |
| LAL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | LAL at GS | LAL 58% (our pick) |
| GS | NBA | 4 games in 7 days, 2.5K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | LAL at GS | LAL 58% (our pick is the other side) |
| HOU | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | HOU at DAL | HOU 65% (our pick) |
| DAL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | HOU at DAL | HOU 65% (our pick is the other side) |
| WPG | NHL | second of a back to back | WPG at FLA | FLA 66% (our pick is the other side) |
| FLA | NHL | 3.0K km since the last game | WPG at FLA | FLA 66% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 29)
NFL: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at GB | GB | 63% | -185 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | Over 249.5 passing yards | 65% | 288 | Hit |
| Josh Jacobs | Over 53.5 rushing yards | 65% | 39 | Miss |
Tickets: the props parlay (+135) missed.
NBA: 2-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM at POR | POR | 69% | -290 | Miss |
| SAC at NO | NO | 68% | -238 | Hit |
| CLE at ATL | ATL | 51% | -118 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis | Over 20.5 points | 67% | 9 | Miss |
| Jalen Johnson | Over 18.5 points | 66% | 17 | Miss |
| Deni Avdija | Over 23.5 points | 66% | 24 | Hit |
| Ja Morant | Over 19.5 points | 71% | 14 | Miss |
| Donovan Mitchell | Over 21.5 points | 70% | 22 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+253) missed; the props parlay (+594) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+961) missed.
NHL: 4-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ at CAR | CAR | 68% | -258 | Hit |
| WPG at TBL | TBL | 66% | -218 | Hit |
| CHI at DET | DET | 60% | -162 | Hit |
| NYI at MIN | MIN | 62% | -192 | Miss |
| VAN at SJS | SJS | 61% | -175 | Hit |
| MTL at DAL | DAL | 60% | -175 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 78% | 3 | Hit |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 66% | 3 | Hit |
| Jason Robertson | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 72% | 4 | Hit |
| David Pastrnak | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 88% | 3 | Hit |
| Alex Tuch | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 86% | 1 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1129) missed; the props parlay (+260) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+425) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 13 since Oct 1 | 23-14 | -3.52 u | -9.5% | 25-13 (66%) | 0-4 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 10 since Oct 20 | 36-11 | +2.40 u | +5.1% | 24-25 (49%) | 3-7 |
| NHL | 30 since Sep 30 | 80-38 | +7.26 u | +6.1% | 93-50 (65%) | 6-24 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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