Best Bets for Thursday, October 29: POR 69%, CAR 68% and 8 More Picks Across the NFL, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
10 picks to win on the Model Cards for Thursday, October 29, across the NFL, NBA and NHL, plus 12 props. The firmest call is Portland Trail Blazers at 69% (-278). Yesterday's cards: MLB 1-0, NBA 6-1, NHL 3-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM at POR | Lock | POR | 69% | -278 | 70% | -2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.9, head to head +4.2 |
| CBJ at CAR | Lock | CAR | 68% | -250 | 69% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +9.4, expected goals +7.3 |
| WPG at TBL | Lock | TBL | 67% | -245 | 68% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.2, expected goals +3.9 |
| SAC at NO | Lock | NO | 67% | -230 | 67% | 0 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +2.9, star availability +2.8 |
| VAN at SJS | Play | SJS | 63% | -192 | 63% | 0 | NHL | goal margin +3.6, expected goals (5v5) +2.9 |
| NYI at MIN | Play | MIN | 62% | -192 | 63% | -1 | NHL | expected goals +6.3, expected goals (5v5) +3.6 |
| CAR at GB | Play | GB | 62% | -192 | 63% | -1 | NFL | epa per play +15.2, point margin +2.1 |
| CHI at DET | Play | DET | 62% | -180 | 62% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +9.5, expected goals +4.3 |
| MTL at DAL | Play | DAL | 59% | -162 | 59% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +3.0, venue +2.8 |
| CLE at ATL | Lean | ATL | 51% | -115 | 51% | 0 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 4 games in) +5.4, streak +1.6 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Portland Trail Blazers over Memphis Grizzlies, 69%, -278. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.9 points), head to head (+4.2 points), defense (+2.0 points). The case against is venue (-6.8 points). The line POR -7.5, total 232.5. POR out: Chris Youngblood, Shaedon Sharpe.
Carolina Hurricanes over Columbus Blue Jackets, 68%, -250. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.4 points), expected goals (+7.3 points), goal margin (+5.9 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 5.5. CBJ starter: Jet Greaves. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (likely). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Taylor Hall.
Tampa Bay Lightning over Winnipeg Jets, 67%, -245. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.2 points), expected goals (+3.9 points), goal margin (+3.2 points). The case against is shot margin (-1.6 points). The line TBL -1.5, total 6.5. WPG starter: Stuart Skinner. WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy.
New Orleans Pelicans over Sacramento Kings, 67%, -230. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+2.9 points), star availability (+2.8 points), injuries (NO without Poole, Missi; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell) (+2.5 points). The case against is venue (-4.9 points). The line NO -5.5, total 236.5. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Dylan Cardwell, Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud. NO out: Yves Missi. NO is on the second of a back to back.
San Jose Sharks over Vancouver Canucks, 63%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+3.6 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.9 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 14 games in) (+2.8 points). The case against is venue (-3.9 points). The line SJS -1.5, total 6.5. VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Mackenzie MacEachern. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected).
Minnesota Wild over New York Islanders, 62%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+6.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.6 points), goal margin (+2.3 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.4 points). The line MIN -1.5, total 5.5. NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin (likely). NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Matias Maccelli. MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt (projected). MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno.
Green Bay Packers over Carolina Panthers, 62%, -192. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: epa per play (+15.2 points), point margin (+2.1 points), turnovers (+2.1 points). The case against is offense (-3.5 points). The line GB -3.5, total 46.5. CAR starter: Bryce Young. CAR out: Damien Lewis, Jaelan Phillips, Taylor Moton, Torricelli Simpkins III. GB starter: Jordan Love. GB out: Jacob Monk, Micah Parsons, Sean Rhyan, Travis Glover, Zaire Franklin. Crew: Scott Novak has been tough on CAR (+1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 1-2 in 3 games). Crew: Scott Novak has been friendly to GB (+0.2 flags a game versus its norm, 5-1 in 6 games).
Detroit Red Wings over Chicago Blackhawks, 62%, -180. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.5 points), expected goals (+4.3 points), goal margin (+4.0 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.1 points). The line DET -1.5, total 5.5. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). DET starter: John Gibson. DET out: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson.
Dallas Stars over Montréal Canadiens, 59%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+3.0 points), venue (+2.8 points), expected goals (+2.2 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-0.9 points). The line DAL -1.5, total 6.5. MTL starter: Jakub Dobes. MTL out: Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger. DAL out: Cameron Hughes, Matt Duchene, Radek Faksa, Esa Lindell, Kyle Capobianco.
Atlanta Hawks over Cleveland Cavaliers, 51%, -115. Lean on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 4 games in) (+5.4 points), streak (+1.6 points), head to head (+1.2 points). The case against is true shooting (-1.6 points). The line ATL -1.5, total 237.5. CLE is on the second of a back to back. ATL out: Henri Veesaar, Mouhamed Gueye. ATL is on the second of a back to back.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | Lock | BOS | BOS at STL | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.7 | 88% | NHL |
| Nikita Kucherov | Play | TBL | WPG at TBL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.7 | 78% | NHL |
| Jason Robertson | Play | DAL | MTL at DAL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 72% | NHL |
| Ja Morant | Play | POR | MEM at POR | Over 19.5 points | 23.5 | 71% | NBA |
| Donovan Mitchell | Lean | CLE | CLE at ATL | Over 21.5 points | 25.7 | 70% | NBA |
| Cole Caufield | Lean | MTL | MTL at DAL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.2 | 67% | NHL |
| Domantas Sabonis | Lean | SAC | SAC at NO | Over 20.5 points | 23.9 | 67% | NBA |
| Jalen Johnson | Lean | ATL | CLE at ATL | Over 18.5 points | 21.4 | 66% | NBA |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Lean | CAR | CAR at GB | Over 4.5 receptions | 5.6 | 66% | NFL |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Lean | MIN | NYI at MIN | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 66% | NHL |
| Deni Avdija | Lean | POR | MEM at POR | Over 23.5 points | 27.1 | 66% | NBA |
| Jordan Love | Lean | GB | CAR at GB | Over 254.5 passing yards | 292.3 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Tetairoa McMillan over 4.5 receptions; Jordan Love over 254.5 passing yards | +133 (fair) | 43% | +133 |
| NBA | Games | POR; NO; ATL | +265 | 24% | +322 |
| NBA | Props | Ja Morant over 19.5 points; Donovan Mitchell over 21.5 points; Domantas Sabonis over 20.5 points; Jalen Johnson over 18.5 points; Deni Avdija over 23.5 points | +594 (fair) | 14% | +594 |
| NBA | Best of both | POR; NO; ATL; Ja Morant over 19.5 points; Donovan Mitchell over 21.5 points; Domantas Sabonis over 20.5 points | +997 | 8% | +1169 |
| NHL | Games | CAR; TBL; SJS; MIN; DET; DAL | +1047 | 6% | +1455 |
| NHL | Props | David Pastrnak over 1.5 shots on goal; Nikita Kucherov over 2.5 shots on goal; Jason Robertson over 2.5 shots on goal; Cole Caufield over 2.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal | +358 (fair) | 22% | +358 |
| NHL | Best of both | CAR; TBL; SJS; David Pastrnak over 1.5 shots on goal; Nikita Kucherov over 2.5 shots on goal; Jason Robertson over 2.5 shots on goal | +508 | 14% | +611 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM at POR | NBA | POR without Sharpe, Youngblood | 3.7 pts against POR |
| SAC at NO | NBA | NO without Poole, Missi; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell | 2.5 pts toward NO |
| CAR at GB | NFL | GB without Franklin, Parsons; Golden, Wyatt day-to-day; CAR without Phillips | 2.3 pts against GB |
| UTA at PIT | NHL | PIT without Rust, Soderblom, Riemsdyk; Malkin, Chinakhov GTD; UTA without Carcone, Lamoureux; Marino GTD | 2.0 pts toward UTA |
| OTT at LAK | NHL | Goalies (OTT: Johansson in for Ullmark, hurt | 1.0 pts against OTT |
| VAN at SJS | NHL | SJS without Wennberg, Chernyshov | 1.0 pts against SJS |
| NYI at MIN | NHL | MIN without Faber, Foligno, Foligno; NYI without Maccelli, Ritchie, Barzal | 0.8 pts toward MIN |
| MTL at DAL | NHL | DAL without Lindell, Duchene, Bäck; MTL without Suzuki, Demidov | 0.6 pts toward DAL |
| CLE at ATL | NBA | ATL without Gueye | 0.4 pts against ATL |
| BUF at ANA | NHL | ANA without Terry, Poehling; Mintyukov GTD; BUF without Grzelcyk, Timmins; Kulich GTD, Danforth day-to-day | 0.4 pts toward BUF |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | NBA | second of a back to back | SAC at NO | NO 67% (our pick) |
| CLE | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | CLE at ATL | ATL 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| ATL | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | CLE at ATL | ATL 51% (our pick) |
| MEM | NBA | road game 4 | MEM at POR | POR 70% (our pick is the other side) |
| MTL | NHL | road game 4 | MTL at DAL | DAL 59% (our pick is the other side) |
| MIN | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | NYI at MIN | MIN 62% (our pick) |
| WSH | NHL | second of a back to back | WSH at NSH | WSH 51% (our pick) |
| NSH | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | WSH at NSH | WSH 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| WPG | NHL | 2.7K km since the last game | WPG at TBL | TBL 67% (our pick is the other side) |
| TBL | NHL | 3.0K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | WPG at TBL | TBL 67% (our pick) |
| UTA | NHL | 2.7K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | UTA at PIT | UTA 54% (our pick) |
| LAK | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, 2.8K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | OTT at LAK | OTT 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| DET | NHL | 2.6K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | CHI at DET | DET 59% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 28)
MLB: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at TB | MIL | 56% | -139 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Over 4.5 strikeouts | 76% | 2 | Miss |
| Jackson Chourio | Over 0.5 hits | 81% | 1 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (-161) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+179) missed.
NBA: 6-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA at UTAH | SA | 82% | -650 | Hit |
| WSH at CLE | CLE | 77% | -395 | Hit |
| CHA at DET | DET | 71% | -290 | Hit |
| NY at CHI | NY | 70% | -278 | Hit |
| HOU at MIL | HOU | 69% | -340 | Hit |
| PHI at IND | PHI | 65% | -278 | Hit |
| OKC at DAL | OKC | 66% | -205 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Over 25.5 points | 66% | 21 | Miss |
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 23.5 points | 68% | 36 | Hit |
| Jalen Johnson | Over 20.5 points | 69% | 12 | Miss |
| Jaylen Brown | Over 25.5 points | 70% | 20 | Miss |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 30.5 points | 67% | 21 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+592) missed; the props parlay (+591) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+492) missed.
NHL: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at WSH | WSH | 66% | -245 | Hit |
| CGY at EDM | EDM | 63% | -180 | Hit |
| NJD at COL | COL | 58% | -148 | Hit |
| TOR at SEA | TOR | 54% | -135 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 89% | 3 | Hit |
| Leon Draisaitl | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 67% | 2 | Miss |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 83% | 2 | Miss |
| Artturi Lehkonen | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 83% | 2 | Hit |
| Auston Matthews | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | 4 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+539) missed; the props parlay (+165) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+436) hit.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 12 since Oct 1 | 22-14 | -4.06 u | -11.3% | 24-12 (67%) | 0-4 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 9 since Oct 20 | 34-10 | +2.13 u | +4.8% | 22-22 (50%) | 3-6 |
| NHL | 29 since Sep 30 | 76-36 | +7.22 u | +6.4% | 89-49 (64%) | 6-23 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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