Best Bets for Monday, November 2: SA 88%, NY 86% and 10 More Picks Across the NFL, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
12 picks to win on the Model Cards for Monday, November 2, across the NFL, NBA and NHL, plus 12 props. The firmest call is San Antonio Spurs at 88% (-1180). Yesterday's cards: NFL 6-1, NBA 3-1, NHL 1-3. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH at SA | Lock | SA | 88% | -1180 | 89% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +3.7, head to head +3.2 |
| BKN at NY | Lock | NY | 86% | -980 | 87% | -1 | NBA | head to head +6.3, net rating, last 10 +3.8 |
| CHI at PHI | Lock | PHI | 79% | -537 | 81% | -2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +3.2, preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 6 games in) +2.8 |
| SAC at DAL | Lock | DAL | 77% | -408 | 77% | 0 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +6.9, injuries (DAL without Aldama, Lively; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell; LaVine day-to-day) +3.8 |
| MIL at MIN | Lock | MIN | 77% | -470 | 79% | -2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +6.5, venue +4.0 |
| COL at CHI | Lock | COL | 67% | -238 | 68% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +12.3, goal margin +7.3 |
| POR at DEN | Play | DEN | 64% | -174 | 61% | +3 | NBA | venue +8.1, injuries (DEN without Jones, Strawther; POR without Morant, Sharpe) +6.3 |
| TOR at LAC | Play | TOR | 64% | -204 | 64% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +6.3, travel +3.7 |
| DET at FLA | Play | FLA | 61% | -175 | 61% | 0 | NHL | venue +2.8, preseason prior (season-win futures, 14 and 14 games in) +2.4 |
| CHI at SEA | Lean | SEA | 55% | -180 | 62% | -7 | NFL | EPA per play +10.4, efficiency (EPA) +2.5 |
| CGY at SJS | Lean | SJS | 53% | -125 | 53% | 0 | NHL | preseason prior (season-win futures, 15 and 14 games in) +5.5, goal margin +1.5 |
| VGK at BOS | Lean | VGK | 52% | -118 | 52% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +6.4, expected goals +3.4 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
San Antonio Spurs over Utah Jazz, 88%, -1180. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+3.7 points), head to head (+3.2 points), injuries (SA without Harris; UTAH without Jackson, Nurkic, Alexander) (+3.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 6 games in) (-4.0 points). The line SA -15.5, total 229.5. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, Trey Alexander. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.
New York Knicks over Brooklyn Nets, 86%, -980. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+6.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.8 points), shooting (eFG) (+2.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 6 games in) (-4.0 points). The line NY -14.5, total 219.5. BKN out: Egor Demin, Tyler Bilodeau. BKN is on the second of a back to back. NY out: Jose Alvarado.
Philadelphia 76ers over Chicago Bulls, 79%, -537. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+3.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 6 games in) (+2.8 points), streak (+2.4 points). The case against is injuries (PHI without Barlow, Hukporti; Embiid questionable; CHI without Claxton) (-2.0 points). The line PHI -10.5, total 238.5. CHI out: Nic Claxton. PHI out: Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow.
Dallas Mavericks over Sacramento Kings, 77%, -408. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+6.9 points), injuries (DAL without Aldama, Lively; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell; LaVine day-to-day) (+3.8 points), streak (+2.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 6 games in) (-9.6 points). The line DAL -10.5, total 232.5. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Dylan Cardwell, Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud. DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic.
Minnesota Timberwolves over Milwaukee Bucks, 77%, -470. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+6.5 points), venue (+4.0 points), defense (+2.1 points). The case against is injuries (MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo) (-7.4 points). The line MIN -10.5, total 233.5. MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo.
Colorado Avalanche over Chicago Blackhawks, 67%, -238. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+12.3 points), goal margin (+7.3 points), expected goals (+5.5 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely).
Denver Nuggets over Portland Trail Blazers, 64%, -174. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+8.1 points), injuries (DEN without Jones, Strawther; POR without Morant, Sharpe) (+6.3 points), head to head (+5.2 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-2.6 points). We like this side 3 points more than the price does. The line DEN -4.5, total 230.5. POR out: Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe. DEN out: Alpha Diallo, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones.
Toronto Raptors over LA Clippers, 64%, -204. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+6.3 points), travel (+3.7 points), injuries (LAC without Ingram, Jones, Strus; TOR without Leonard; Poeltl day-to-day) (+3.1 points). The case against is head to head (-7.5 points). The line TOR -4.5, total 221.5. TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle. TOR is on the second of a back to back. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Max Strus, Yanic Konan Niederhauser. LAC is on the second of a back to back.
Florida Panthers over Detroit Red Wings, 61%, -175. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: venue (+2.8 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 14 and 14 games in) (+2.4 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.2 points). The case against is motivation (-0.8 points). The line FLA -1.5, total 5.5. DET starter: Daniil Tarasov (projected). DET out: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Simon Edvinsson. FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.
Seattle Seahawks over Chicago Bears, 55%, -180. Lean on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+10.4 points), efficiency (EPA) (+2.5 points), point margin (+2.1 points). The case against is quarterback (-2.4 points). The market is 7 points firmer on it than we are; we still have SEA as the more likely winner. The line SEA -3.0, total 46.5. CHI starter: Caleb Williams. CHI out: Kyle Monangai, Cole Kmet, Coby Bryant. SEA starter: Sam Darnold. SEA out: Jadarian Price, Velus Jones Jr., Rashid Shaheed, Charles Cross, Terrion Arnold.
San Jose Sharks over Calgary Flames, 53%, -125. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 15 and 14 games in) (+5.5 points), goal margin (+1.5 points), schedule load (+1.0 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-5.5 points). The line SJS -1.5, total 6.5. CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (projected). CGY out: Devin Cooley, Connor Zary, Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected).
Vegas Golden Knights over Boston Bruins, 52%, -118. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.4 points), expected goals (+3.4 points), rest (+2.2 points). The case against is venue (-3.3 points). The line VGK -1.5, total 6.5. VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected). VGK out: Parker Wotherspoon. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak | Lock | BOS | VGK at BOS | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 93% | NHL |
| Viktor Arvidsson | Lock | DET | DET at FLA | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.9 | 91% | NHL |
| Artturi Lehkonen | Lock | COL | COL at CHI | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.6 | 87% | NHL |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Play | COL | COL at CHI | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.8 | 80% | NHL |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Play | SEA | CHI at SEA | Over 5.5 receptions | 7.6 | 77% | NFL |
| Brady Tkachuk | Play | FLA | DET at FLA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 73% | NHL |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | UTAH at SA | Over 30.5 points | 36.1 | 69% | NBA |
| Nikola Jokic | Lean | DEN | POR at DEN | Over 21.5 points | 25.4 | 69% | NBA |
| Cooper Flagg | Lean | DAL | SAC at DAL | Over 25.5 points | 30.1 | 68% | NBA |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | MIA at LAL | Over 32.5 points | 38 | 67% | NBA |
| Domantas Sabonis | Lean | SAC | SAC at DAL | Over 18.5 points | 21.5 | 67% | NBA |
| Caleb Williams | Lean | CHI | CHI at SEA | Over 167.5 passing yards | 192.3 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 5.5 receptions; Caleb Williams over 167.5 passing yards | -100 (fair) | 50.1% | -100 |
| NFL | Best of both | SEA; Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 5.5 receptions; Caleb Williams over 167.5 passing yards | +211 | 28% | +263 |
| NBA | Games | SA; NY; PHI; DAL; MIN; DEN; TOR | +402 | 14% | +594 |
| NBA | Props | Victor Wembanyama over 30.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 21.5 points; Cooper Flagg over 25.5 points; Luka Doncic over 32.5 points; Domantas Sabonis over 18.5 points | +589 (fair) | 15% | +589 |
| NBA | Best of both | SA; NY; PHI; Victor Wembanyama over 30.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 21.5 points; Cooper Flagg over 25.5 points | +338 | 19% | +418 |
| NHL | Games | COL; FLA; SJS; VGK | +642 | 11% | +787 |
| NHL | Props | David Pastrnak over 1.5 shots on goal; Viktor Arvidsson over 1.5 shots on goal; Artturi Lehkonen over 1.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 2.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal | +134 (fair) | 43% | +134 |
| NHL | Best of both | COL; FLA; SJS; David Pastrnak over 1.5 shots on goal; Viktor Arvidsson over 1.5 shots on goal; Artturi Lehkonen over 1.5 shots on goal | +449 | 16% | +528 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at SEA | NFL | SEA | 55% | 62% | -6 |
| OKC at CLE | NBA | CLE | 57% | 62% | -5 |
| ATL at IND | NBA | ATL | 60% | 64% | -4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHX at GS | NBA | GS without Butler, Porzingis, Green; Curry day-to-day; PHX without Williams | 9.0 pts against GS |
| MIL at MIN | NBA | MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo | 7.4 pts against MIN |
| WSH at ORL | NBA | ORL without Banchero, Black, Suggs; WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic; Gill questionable, Sarr day-to-day | 7.2 pts against ORL |
| POR at DEN | NBA | DEN without Jones, Strawther; POR without Morant, Sharpe | 6.3 pts toward DEN |
| SAC at DAL | NBA | DAL without Aldama, Lively; SAC without Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell; LaVine day-to-day | 3.8 pts toward DAL |
| UTAH at SA | NBA | SA without Harris; UTAH without Jackson, Nurkic, Alexander | 3.1 pts toward SA |
| TOR at LAC | NBA | LAC without Ingram, Jones, Strus; TOR without Leonard; Poeltl day-to-day | 3.1 pts toward TOR |
| OKC at CLE | NBA | CLE without Watson, Tyson; OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Wallace | 2.8 pts toward CLE |
| NO at MEM | NBA | MEM: Post questionable, Pippen day-to-day; NO without Poole, Missi; Murphy probable | 2.3 pts toward MEM |
| CHI at PHI | NBA | PHI without Barlow, Hukporti; Embiid questionable; CHI without Claxton | 2.0 pts against PHI |
| CHI at SEA | NFL | SEA without Arnold, Shaheed; CHI without Monangai, Bryant; Muhammad day-to-day | 1.6 pts toward SEA |
| DET at CHA | NBA | CHA without Knueppel, Williams; DET without Duren, Joe | 1.4 pts against DET |
| BKN at NY | NBA | NY without Alvarado; BKN without Demin | 0.8 pts toward NY |
| MIA at LAL | NBA | LAL without Williams, Thiero; MIA: Hardaway day-to-day | 0.7 pts against LAL |
| BOS at HOU | NBA | HOU without Adams, Capela; Sheppard day-to-day; BOS without Carter; Robinson questionable | 0.6 pts against HOU |
| DET at FLA | NHL | FLA without Marchand, Barkov; DET without Larkin, Kasper, Edvinsson; Johansson day-to-day | 0.6 pts toward FLA |
| CGY at SJS | NHL | SJS without Wennberg, Chernyshov; CGY without Huberdeau, Zary, Honzek | 0.6 pts against SJS |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | BOS at HOU | HOU 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| HOU | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | BOS at HOU | HOU 61% (our pick) |
| MIN | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | MIL at MIN | MIN 77% (our pick) |
| BKN | NBA | second of a back to back | BKN at NY | NY 86% (our pick is the other side) |
| GS | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | PHX at GS | GS 55% (our pick) |
| TOR | NBA | second of a back to back | TOR at LAC | TOR 64% (our pick) |
| LAC | NBA | second of a back to back | TOR at LAC | TOR 64% (our pick is the other side) |
| CHA | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | DET at CHA | DET 62% (our pick is the other side) |
| ATL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | ATL at IND | ATL 60% (our pick) |
| IND | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | ATL at IND | ATL 60% (our pick is the other side) |
| ORL | NBA | second of a back to back | WSH at ORL | ORL 59% (our pick) |
| SAC | NBA | road game 4 | SAC at DAL | DAL 77% (our pick is the other side) |
| MIA | NBA | 3.8K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | MIA at LAL | LAL 54% (our pick is the other side) |
| LAL | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | MIA at LAL | LAL 54% (our pick) |
| CLE | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | OKC at CLE | CLE 57% (our pick) |
| VGK | NHL | 3.8K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | VGK at BOS | VGK 52% (our pick) |
| CGY | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | CGY at SJS | SJS 53% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 1)
NFL: 6-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN at CIN | CIN | 82% | -900 | Hit |
| IND at JAX | JAX | 77% | -485 | Hit |
| NE at MIA | NE | 70% | -345 | Hit |
| LAC at LAR | LAR | 70% | -285 | Hit |
| ARI at DAL | DAL | 63% | -340 | Miss |
| BAL at BUF | BUF | 60% | -162 | Hit |
| PHI at WSH | WSH | 70% | -278 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | Over 277.5 passing yards | 65% | 462 | Hit |
| Dak Prescott | Over 312.5 passing yards | 65% | 195 | Miss |
| Jacoby Brissett | Over 272.5 passing yards | 65% | 119 | Miss |
| Josh Allen | Over 201.5 passing yards | 65% | 289 | Hit |
| Puka Nacua | Over 5.5 receptions | 67% | 11 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+565) missed; the props parlay (+721) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+503) missed.
NBA: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at ORL | BOS | 68% | -298 | Hit |
| BKN at IND | IND | 63% | -162 | Miss |
| TOR at LAL | LAL | 59% | -155 | Hit |
| LAC at GS | GS | 55% | -125 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | Over 24.5 points | 65% | 32 | Hit |
| Julius Randle | Over 21.5 points | 65% | 20 | Miss |
| Michael Porter Jr. | Over 22.5 points | 66% | 23 | Hit |
| Luka Doncic | Over 31.5 points | 67% | 45 | Hit |
| Scottie Barnes | Over 21.5 points | 67% | 29 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+540) missed; the props parlay (+698) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+1109) missed.
NHL: 1-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG at CAR | CAR | 68% | -278 | Hit |
| UTA at PHI | UTA | 61% | -185 | Miss |
| EDM at NYR | NYR | 54% | -125 | Miss |
| OTT at ANA | OTT | 51% | -118 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 90% | 1 | Miss |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 66% | 2 | Miss |
| Leon Draisaitl | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | 3 | Hit |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 88% | 6 | Hit |
| Drake Batherson | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 82% | 1 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+597) missed; the props parlay (+158) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+421) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 14 since Oct 1 | 29-15 | -2.59 u | -5.9% | 28-15 (65%) | 0-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 13 since Oct 20 | 48-15 | +2.95 u | +4.7% | 32-32 (50%) | 3-10 |
| NHL | 33 since Sep 30 | 86-44 | +3.82 u | +2.9% | 101-57 (64%) | 6-27 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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