Best Bets for Sunday, November 1: CIN 82%, JAX 77% and 13 More Picks Across the NFL, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
15 picks to win on the Model Cards for Sunday, November 1, across the NFL, NBA and NHL, plus 15 props. The firmest call is Cincinnati Bengals at 82% (-900). Yesterday's cards: NBA 4-1, NHL 4-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN at CIN | Lock | CIN | 82% | -900 | 86% | -5 | NFL | EPA per play +16.7, point margin +7.0 |
| IND at JAX | Lock | JAX | 77% | -485 | 80% | -2 | NFL | EPA per play +16.0, point margin +8.1 |
| PHI at WSH | Lock | WSH | 70% | -270 | 70% | 0 | NFL | recent form +5.6, quarterback +2.7 |
| NE at MIA | Lock | NE | 70% | -340 | 74% | -4 | NFL | EPA per play +21.6, point margin +10.0 |
| LAC at LAR | Lock | LAR | 69% | -270 | 70% | -1 | NFL | EPA per play +21.9, point margin +9.1 |
| WPG at CAR | Lock | CAR | 68% | -278 | 70% | -2 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +11.3, goal margin +6.6 |
| BOS at ORL | Lock | BOS | 67% | -270 | 70% | -3 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.3, injuries (ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; BOS without Carter, Robinson) +5.4 |
| ARI at DAL | Play | DAL | 63% | -340 | 74% | -11 | NFL | point margin +10.0, EPA per play +8.1 |
| BKN at IND | Play | IND | 63% | -170 | 60% | +3 | NBA | head to head +7.1, net rating, last 10 +5.9 |
| UTA at PHI | Play | UTA | 61% | -185 | 62% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +10.0, expected goals +7.0 |
| BAL at BUF | Play | BUF | 60% | -162 | 59% | +1 | NFL | EPA per play +5.5, point margin +5.1 |
| TOR at LAL | Play | LAL | 58% | -148 | 57% | +1 | NBA | head to head +11.2, preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 5 games in) +6.7 |
| LAC at GS | Lean | GS | 55% | -135 | 55% | 0 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 5 games in) +7.2, venue +6.1 |
| EDM at NYR | Lean | NYR | 54% | -130 | 54% | -1 | NHL | back to back +7.3, rest +6.5 |
| OTT at ANA | Lean | OTT | 51% | -118 | 52% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +5.4, venue +4.1 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Cincinnati Bengals over Tennessee Titans, 82%, -900. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+16.7 points), point margin (+7.0 points), offense (+3.8 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-1.1 points). The market is 5 points firmer on it than we are; we still have CIN as the more likely winner. The line CIN -13.5, total 45.5. TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Tyjae Spears, Carnell Tate, Kylen Granson, Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, Dorian Mausi. CIN starter: Joe Burrow. CIN out: Andrei Iosivas, Mitchell Tinsley, Erick All Jr., Connor Lew, Kyle Dugger. Crew: Brad Allen has been tough on CIN (+1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 1-5 in 6 games).
Jacksonville Jaguars over Indianapolis Colts, 77%, -485. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+16.0 points), point margin (+8.1 points), quarterback (+3.1 points). The case against is defense (-1.1 points). The line JAX -10.0, total 45.5. IND starter: Daniel Jones. IND out: Riley Leonard, Anthony Gould, Pharaoh Brown, Bryce Boettcher, Cam Taylor-Britt. JAX starter: Trevor Lawrence. JAX out: CJ Williams, Albert Regis, Alijah Huzzie, Anton Harrison, Antonio Johnson. Crew: Adrian Hill has been friendly to JAX (-2.1 flags a game versus its norm, 0-5 in 5 games).
Washington Commanders over Philadelphia Eagles, 70%, -270. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: recent form (+5.6 points), quarterback (+2.7 points), turnovers (+2.4 points). The case against is venue (-1.5 points). The line WSH -6.0, total 40.5. PHI starter: Tanner McKee. PHI out: Dameon Pierce, Tank Bigsby, Britain Covey, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks. WSH starter: Jayden Daniels. WSH out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jaylin Lane, Terry McLaurin, Daron Payne, Javon Kinlaw.
New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins, 70%, -340. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+21.6 points), point margin (+10.0 points), offense (+3.9 points). The case against is injuries (MIA: Brents day-to-day; NE without Brown; Elliss, Davis day-to-day) (-5.6 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have NE as the more likely winner. The line NE -7.0, total 41.5. NE starter: Drake Maye. NE out: TreVeyon Henderson, A.J. Brown, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Marcus Bryant. MIA starter: Malik Willis. MIA out: Kadyn Proctor.
Los Angeles Rams over Los Angeles Chargers, 69%, -270. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+21.9 points), point margin (+9.1 points), offense (+4.8 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.3 points). The line LAR -6.5, total 45.5. LAC starter: Justin Herbert. LAC out: Brenen Thompson, Deane Leonard, Denzel Perryman, Derwin James Jr., Kayode Awosika. LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Davante Adams, Terrance Ferguson, Joe Cardona, Myles Garrett.
Carolina Hurricanes over Winnipeg Jets, 68%, -278. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.3 points), goal margin (+6.6 points), expected goals (+6.4 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.6 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (projected). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov. CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin, Taylor Hall.
Boston Celtics over Orlando Magic, 67%, -270. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.3 points), injuries (ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; BOS without Carter, Robinson) (+5.4 points), head to head (+4.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 5 games in) (-14.9 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have BOS as the more likely winner. The line BOS -7.5, total 220.5. BOS out: Devin Carter, Mitchell Robinson. ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero.
Dallas Cowboys over Arizona Cardinals, 63%, -340. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: point margin (+10.0 points), EPA per play (+8.1 points), offense (+4.3 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.1 points). The market is 11 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DAL as the more likely winner. The line DAL -7.0, total 54.5. ARI starter: Jacoby Brissett. ARI out: Carson Beck, Evan Hull, Jalen Brooks, Tip Reiman, Albert Reese IV. DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: KaVontae Turpin, Luke Schoonmaker, Dee Winters, Drew Shelton, Jonathan Bullard. Crew: Ron Torbert has been friendly to ARI (+0.2 flags a game versus its norm, 3-3 in 6 games).
Indiana Pacers over Brooklyn Nets, 63%, -170. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.1 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.9 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 5 games in) (+2.9 points). The case against is injuries (IND without Zubac, Sheppard, McConnell; Nesmith, Toppin day-to-day; BKN without Demin) (-4.8 points). We like this side 3 points more than the price does. The line IND -3.5, total 231.5. BKN out: Egor Demin, Mikel Brown Jr., Tyler Bilodeau. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton.
Utah Mammoth over Philadelphia Flyers, 61%, -185. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+10.0 points), expected goals (+7.0 points), goal margin (+6.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 15 and 14 games in) (-6.0 points). The line UTA -1.5, total 6.5. UTA starter: Karel Vejmelka (projected). UTA out: John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone. PHI starter: Dan Vladar (projected). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny.
Buffalo Bills over Baltimore Ravens, 60%, -162. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+5.5 points), point margin (+5.1 points), offense (+4.8 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.3 points). The line BUF -3.0, total 54.5. BAL starter: Lamar Jackson. BAL out: Joe Fagnano, Adam Randall, Elijah Sarratt, Aeneas Peebles, Chandler Rivers. BUF starter: Josh Allen. BUF out: Skyler Bell, Tyrell Shavers, Ar'maj Reed-Adams, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Dee Alford. Crew: Clay Martin has been tough on BAL (+1.0 flags a game versus its norm, 0-4 in 4 games).
Los Angeles Lakers over Toronto Raptors, 58%, -148. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+11.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 5 games in) (+6.7 points), injuries (LAL without Thiero; Williams day-to-day; TOR without Leonard) (+5.0 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-6.5 points). The line LAL -2.5, total 225.5. TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle. LAL out: Adou Thiero.
Golden State Warriors over LA Clippers, 55%, -135. Lean on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 5 games in) (+7.2 points), venue (+6.1 points), streak (+3.6 points). The case against is injuries (GS without Curry, Butler, Porzingis; Santos day-to-day; LAC without Strus, Miller, Beal) (-11.6 points). The line GS -2.5, total 222.5. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Jordan Miller, Max Strus. GS out: Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry.
New York Rangers over Edmonton Oilers, 54%, -130. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.3 points), rest (+6.5 points), schedule load (+2.1 points). The case against is goal margin (-4.1 points). The line NYR -1.5, total 6.5. EDM starter: Matt Tomkins. EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula. EDM is on the second of a back to back. NYR starter: Dylan Garand. NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Joonas Korpisalo, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno.
Ottawa Senators over Anaheim Ducks, 51%, -118. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.4 points), venue (+4.1 points), expected goals (+3.4 points). The case against is back to back (-7.3 points). The line OTT -1.5, total 6.5. OTT starter: Jonas Johansson (projected). OTT out: Linus Ullmark, Andre Burakovsky, Hayden Hodgson, Warren Foegele, William Eklund. OTT is on the second of a back to back. ANA starter: Laurent Brossoit. ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, Pavel Mintyukov, Troy Terry.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | Lock | EDM | EDM at NYR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.9 | 92% | NHL |
| Trevor Zegras | Lock | PHI | UTA at PHI | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.8 | 90% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | EDM at NYR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.6 | 88% | NHL |
| Drake Batherson | Lock | OTT | OTT at ANA | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.3 | 82% | NHL |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | TOR at LAL | Over 29.5 points | 34.5 | 67% | NBA |
| Scottie Barnes | Lean | TOR | TOR at LAL | Over 21.5 points | 25 | 67% | NBA |
| Michael Porter Jr. | Lean | BKN | BKN at IND | Over 22.5 points | 26 | 66% | NBA |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Lean | MIN | MIN at WSH | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 66% | NHL |
| Josh Allen | Lean | BUF | BAL at BUF | Over 201.5 passing yards | 232 | 65% | NFL |
| Jayson Tatum | Lean | BOS | BOS at ORL | Over 24.5 points | 28.2 | 65% | NBA |
| Joe Burrow | Lean | CIN | TEN at CIN | Over 277.5 passing yards | 319.1 | 65% | NFL |
| Julius Randle | Lean | BKN | BKN at IND | Over 21.5 points | 24.7 | 65% | NBA |
| Jacoby Brissett | Lean | ARI | ARI at DAL | Over 272.5 passing yards | 312.9 | 65% | NFL |
| Dak Prescott | Lean | DAL | ARI at DAL | Over 312.5 passing yards | 358.8 | 65% | NFL |
| Drake Maye | Lean | NE | NE at MIA | Over 231.5 passing yards | 265.8 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Games | CIN; JAX; WSH; NE; LAR; DAL; BUF | +582 | 8% | +1121 |
| NFL | Props | Josh Allen over 201.5 passing yards; Joe Burrow over 277.5 passing yards; Jacoby Brissett over 272.5 passing yards; Dak Prescott over 312.5 passing yards; Drake Maye over 231.5 passing yards | +749 (fair) | 12% | +749 |
| NFL | Best of both | CIN; JAX; WSH; Josh Allen over 201.5 passing yards; Jacoby Brissett over 272.5 passing yards; Dak Prescott over 312.5 passing yards | +562 | 12% | +713 |
| NBA | Games | BOS; IND; LAL; GS | +535 | 14% | +641 |
| NBA | Props | Luka Doncic over 29.5 points; Scottie Barnes over 21.5 points; Michael Porter Jr. over 22.5 points; Jayson Tatum over 24.5 points; Julius Randle over 21.5 points | +693 (fair) | 13% | +692 |
| NBA | Best of both | BOS; IND; LAL; Luka Doncic over 29.5 points; Scottie Barnes over 21.5 points; Michael Porter Jr. over 22.5 points | +1132 | 7% | +1268 |
| NHL | Games | CAR; UTA; NYR; OTT | +585 | 11% | +780 |
| NHL | Props | Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 shots on goal; Trevor Zegras over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Drake Batherson over 1.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 2.5 shots on goal | +158 (fair) | 39% | +158 |
| NHL | Best of both | CAR; UTA; NYR; Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 shots on goal; Trevor Zegras over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal | +412 | 16% | +518 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at DET | NFL | MIN | 52% | 40% | +12 |
| KC at DEN | NFL | KC | 59% | 50.4% | +8 |
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI at DAL | NFL | DAL | 63% | 74% | -11 |
| CLE at PIT | NFL | PIT | 56% | 64% | -7 |
| NE at MIA | NFL | NE | 70% | 74% | -4 |
| TEN at CIN | NFL | CIN | 82% | 86% | -4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC at GS | NBA | GS without Curry, Butler, Porzingis; Santos day-to-day; LAC without Strus, Miller, Beal | 11.6 pts against GS |
| KC at DEN | NFL | DEN without Jones, Harvey, Hufanga; Waddle, Allen day-to-day; KC without Delane, Sneed | 6.7 pts toward KC |
| NE at MIA | NFL | MIA: Brents day-to-day; NE without Brown; Elliss, Davis day-to-day | 5.6 pts against NE |
| BOS at ORL | NBA | ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; BOS without Carter, Robinson | 5.4 pts toward BOS |
| TOR at LAL | NBA | LAL without Thiero; Williams day-to-day; TOR without Leonard | 5.0 pts toward LAL |
| BKN at IND | NBA | IND without Zubac, Sheppard, McConnell; Nesmith, Toppin day-to-day; BKN without Demin | 4.8 pts against IND |
| LV at NYJ | NFL | NYJ without Bailey, Hall, Wright | 4.4 pts against NYJ |
| TEN at CIN | NFL | CIN without Dugger, Iosivas; TEN without Tate, Spears | 3.3 pts toward CIN |
| LAC at LAR | NFL | LAR without Adams, Garrett; McDuffie, Parkinson day-to-day; LAC without James, Perryman | 2.1 pts against LAR |
| IND at JAX | NFL | JAX without Johnson; IND without Pierce, Walley, Taylor-Britt | 2.1 pts toward JAX |
| MIN at DET | NFL | DET without White, Pacheco, Joseph | 2.0 pts toward MIN |
| BAL at BUF | NFL | BUF without Gardner-Johnson, Alford; Kincaid day-to-day; BAL without Hawkins, Robinson | 1.1 pts against BUF |
| PHI at WSH | NFL | WSH without McLaurin, Croskey-Merritt, Payne; PHI without Campbell, Smith, Jones | 1.0 pts toward WSH |
| OTT at ANA | NHL | Goalies (ANA: Brossoit in for Dostal; OTT: Johansson in for Ullmark, hurt | 1.0 pts against OTT |
| CLE at PIT | NFL | PIT without Echols; CLE without Estime, Igbinoghene | 0.9 pts toward PIT |
| ATL at TB | NFL | TB without Egbuka, Rozeboom; Gainwell day-to-day; ATL without Deablo, Robinson, Bowman; Terrell day-to-day | 0.6 pts against TB |
| EDM at NYR | NHL | NYR without Sykora, Veleno; Durzi, Schneider GTD; EDM without Hyman, Savoie | 0.6 pts toward NYR |
| UTA at PHI | NHL | PHI without Ristolainen; Tippett, Konecny GTD; UTA without Carcone, Lamoureux; Marino GTD | 0.6 pts toward UTA |
| MIN at WSH | NHL | WSH without Desharnais, Sandin; MIN without Spurgeon, Faber, Foligno | 0.5 pts toward WSH |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | NBA | 2.5K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | LAC at GS | GS 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| IND | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | BKN at IND | IND 63% (our pick) |
| TOR | NBA | 3.5K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | TOR at LAL | LAL 58% (our pick is the other side) |
| LAL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | TOR at LAL | LAL 58% (our pick) |
| EDM | NHL | second of a back to back | EDM at NYR | NYR 54% (our pick is the other side) |
| OTT | NHL | second of a back to back, road game 4 | OTT at ANA | OTT 51% (our pick) |
| WPG | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | WPG at CAR | CAR 68% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 31)
NBA: 4-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR at UTAH | POR | 68% | -265 | Hit |
| ATL at NO | ATL | 63% | -198 | Miss |
| MIN at SA | SA | 80% | -600 | Hit |
| SAC at MEM | MEM | 74% | -360 | Hit |
| CLE at MIL | CLE | 72% | -380 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | Over 25.5 points | 66% | 24 | Miss |
| Jalen Johnson | Over 19.5 points | 69% | 13 | Miss |
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 24.5 points | 68% | 43 | Hit |
| Domantas Sabonis | Over 18.5 points | 71% | 11 | Miss |
| Donovan Mitchell | Over 25.5 points | 70% | 15 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+290) missed; the props parlay (+554) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+453) missed.
NHL: 4-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at BOS | BOS | 67% | -238 | Hit |
| TBL at NSH | TBL | 60% | -180 | Miss |
| CGY at COL | COL | 68% | -380 | Hit |
| CBJ at DAL | DAL | 62% | -185 | Hit |
| TOR at VAN | TOR | 62% | -192 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Arvidsson | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | 2 | Hit |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 91% | 3 | Hit |
| Leon Draisaitl | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 69% | 2 | Miss |
| Tage Thompson | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 76% | 8 | Hit |
| Auston Matthews | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 65% | 2 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+554) missed; the props parlay (+248) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+335) hit.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 13 since Oct 1 | 23-14 | -3.52 u | -9.5% | 25-13 (66%) | 0-4 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 12 since Oct 20 | 45-14 | +2.17 u | +3.7% | 28-31 (48%) | 3-9 |
| NHL | 32 since Sep 30 | 85-41 | +6.46 u | +5.1% | 99-54 (65%) | 6-26 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
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