Best Bets for Tuesday, November 3: TBL 68%, CAR 64% and 3 More Picks Across the NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
5 picks to win on the Model Cards for Tuesday, November 3, across the NHL, plus 5 props. The firmest call is Tampa Bay Lightning at 68% (-265). Yesterday's cards: NFL 0-1, NBA 5-2, NHL 1-3. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at TBL | Lock | TBL | 68% | -265 | 70% | -2 | NHL | back to back +6.5, rest +5.7 |
| CAR at NSH | Play | CAR | 64% | -198 | 64% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +11.6, goal margin +6.8 |
| WPG at MTL | Play | MTL | 63% | -185 | 62% | +1 | NHL | goal margin +6.0, expected goals (5v5) +3.5 |
| MIN at PHI | Play | MIN | 60% | -185 | 62% | -2 | NHL | expected goals +7.4, goal margin +7.3 |
| ANA at VAN | Play | ANA | 59% | -155 | 58% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.1, goal margin +5.0 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Tampa Bay Lightning over Detroit Red Wings, 68%, -265. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+6.5 points), rest (+5.7 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.4 points). The case against is power play (-1.0 points). The line TBL -1.5, total 6.5. DET starter: John Gibson (projected). DET out: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson. DET is on the second of a back to back. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected).
Carolina Hurricanes over Nashville Predators, 64%, -198. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.6 points), goal margin (+6.8 points), expected goals (+5.8 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.8 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin. NSH starter: Juuse Saros.
Montréal Canadiens over Winnipeg Jets, 63%, -185. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+6.0 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.5 points), expected goals (+2.7 points). The case against is venue (-3.1 points). The line MTL -1.5, total 5.5. WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (projected). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey. MTL starter: Jacob Fowler. MTL out: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov, Sam Montembeault.
Minnesota Wild over Philadelphia Flyers, 60%, -185. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+7.4 points), goal margin (+7.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+5.6 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.0 points). The line MIN -1.5, total 5.5. MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt. MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno. PHI starter: Dan Vladar. PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin.
Anaheim Ducks over Vancouver Canucks, 59%, -155. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.1 points), goal margin (+5.0 points), expected goals (+3.8 points). The case against is rest (-2.1 points). The line ANA -1.5, total 6.5. ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, A.J. Greer, Troy Terry. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (likely). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | Lock | MIN | MIN at PHI | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.9 | 92% | NHL |
| Cutter Gauthier | Lock | ANA | ANA at VAN | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.2 | 85% | NHL |
| Jack Hughes | Play | NJD | EDM at NJD | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 74% | NHL |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Lean | COL | COL at CBJ | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.3 | 70% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lean | EDM | EDM at NJD | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 66% | NHL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | Games | TBL; CAR; MTL; MIN; ANA | +709 | 10% | +944 |
| NHL | Props | Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 2.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 2.5 shots on goal | +278 (fair) | 26% | +278 |
| NHL | Best of both | TBL; CAR; MTL; Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal | +457 | 16% | +541 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| VGK at PIT | NHL | PIT without Rust, Soderblom, Riemsdyk; Malkin GTD; VGK without Olofsson, Wotherspoon | 1.3 pts against PIT |
| DET at TBL | NHL | TBL without Girgensons, Gourde; DET without Larkin, Kasper, Edvinsson | 1.0 pts toward TBL |
| UTA at TOR | NHL | TOR without Marchenko, Tavares, Rifai; UTA without Marino, Lamoureux; Yamamoto GTD | 0.9 pts toward UTA |
| EDM at NJD | NHL | NJD without Casey; EDM without Hyman, Savoie | 0.6 pts toward NJD |
| WPG at MTL | NHL | MTL without Demidov; Suzuki, Matheson GTD; WPG without Morrissey, Namestnikov | 0.6 pts against MTL |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | NHL | 3.6K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | EDM at NJD | NJD 57% (our pick) |
| TOR | NHL | 3.4K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | UTA at TOR | UTA 54% (our pick is the other side) |
| DET | NHL | second of a back to back | DET at TBL | TBL 68% (our pick is the other side) |
| WPG | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, road game 4 | WPG at MTL | MTL 62% (our pick is the other side) |
| VGK | NHL | second of a back to back | VGK at PIT | PIT 51% (our pick is the other side) |
| COL | NHL | second of a back to back | COL at CBJ | COL 53% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 2)
NFL: 0-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at SEA | SEA | 55% | -170 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Over 5.5 receptions | 77% | 6 | Hit |
| Caleb Williams | Over 167.5 passing yards | 65% | 247 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (-100) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+217) missed.
NBA: 5-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH at SA | SA | 88% | -1180 | Hit |
| BKN at NY | NY | 87% | -1020 | Hit |
| CHI at PHI | PHI | 78% | -522 | Hit |
| SAC at DAL | DAL | 75% | -324 | Miss |
| MIL at MIN | MIN | 74% | -423 | Hit |
| ATL at IND | ATL | 72% | -394 | Hit |
| NO at MEM | MEM | 64% | -214 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 30.5 points | 69% | 12 | Miss |
| Luka Doncic | Over 30.5 points | 67% | 42 | Hit |
| Nikola Jokic | Over 21.5 points | 69% | 26 | Hit |
| Cooper Flagg | Over 25.5 points | 68% | 17 | Miss |
| Domantas Sabonis | Over 18.5 points | 67% | 9 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+322) missed; the props parlay (+588) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+339) missed.
NHL: 1-3
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at CHI | COL | 67% | -230 | Hit |
| DET at FLA | FLA | 62% | -185 | Miss |
| CGY at SJS | SJS | 53% | -125 | Miss |
| VGK at BOS | VGK | 52% | -118 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 80% | 2 | Miss |
| Artturi Lehkonen | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 87% | 2 | Hit |
| David Pastrnak | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 7 | Hit |
| Viktor Arvidsson | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 91% | 5 | Hit |
| Brady Tkachuk | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 73% | 2 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+635) missed; the props parlay (+134) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+443) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 15 since Oct 1 | 29-16 | -3.59 u | -8.0% | 30-15 (67%) | 0-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 14 since Oct 20 | 53-17 | +1.81 u | +2.6% | 34-35 (49%) | 3-11 |
| NHL | 34 since Sep 30 | 87-47 | +1.25 u | +0.9% | 104-59 (64%) | 6-28 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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