Best Bets for Thursday, November 5: JAX 80%, TBL 68% and 7 More Picks Across the NFL, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
9 picks to win on the Model Cards for Thursday, November 5, across the NFL, NBA and NHL, plus 11 props. The firmest call is Jacksonville Jaguars at 80% (-550). Yesterday's cards: NBA 5-2, NHL 3-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX at BAL | Lock | JAX | 80% | -550 | 81% | -2 | NFL | EPA per play +12.1, point margin +8.7 |
| CHI at TBL | Lock | TBL | 68% | -425 | 78% | -10 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +11.9, goal margin +6.6 |
| NSH at COL | Lock | COL | 66% | -218 | 66% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +8.0, venue +3.8 |
| MIA at GS | Lock | GS | 65% | -279 | 71% | -6 | NBA | venue +5.8, rest +3.6 |
| VAN at WPG | Play | WPG | 65% | -218 | 66% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +5.7, expected goals +3.1 |
| STL at NJD | Play | NJD | 64% | -205 | 64% | -1 | NHL | expected goals +5.0, shot share (Corsi) +3.5 |
| CAR at NYI | Play | CAR | 62% | -180 | 62% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +10.4, expected goals +6.3 |
| ANA at EDM | Play | EDM | 61% | -185 | 62% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +5.2, expected goals (5v5) +3.3 |
| ORL at PHX | Lean | PHX | 52% | -110 | 50.2% | +1 | NBA | venue +6.5, preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 7 games in) +5.6 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Jacksonville Jaguars over Baltimore Ravens, 80%, -550. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+12.1 points), point margin (+8.7 points), quarterback (+3.4 points). The case against is injuries (BAL without Hawkins; Wiggins day-to-day; JAX without Murray; Tuten, Walker day-to-day) (-1.3 points). The line JAX -10.0, total 39.5. JAX starter: Trevor Lawrence. JAX out: DaVon Hamilton, Eric Murray. BAL starter: Joe Fagnano. BAL out: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Adam Randall, Ethan Pocic, Jaylinn Hawkins.
Tampa Bay Lightning over Chicago Blackhawks, 68%, -425. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.9 points), goal margin (+6.6 points), back to back (+6.5 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.6 points). The market is 10 points firmer on it than we are; we still have TBL as the more likely winner. The line TBL -1.5, total 6.5. CHI starter: Arvid Soderblom (projected). CHI out: Bowen Byram, Patrick Kane. CHI is on the second of a back to back. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected).
Colorado Avalanche over Nashville Predators, 66%, -218. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.0 points), venue (+3.8 points), goal margin (+3.5 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.1 points). The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux.
Golden State Warriors over Miami Heat, 65%, -279. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+5.8 points), rest (+3.6 points), streak (+2.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 8 games in) (-7.9 points). The market is 6 points firmer on it than we are; we still have GS as the more likely winner. The line GS -7.5, total 235.5. MIA is on the second of a back to back. GS out: Gui Santos, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody.
Winnipeg Jets over Vancouver Canucks, 65%, -218. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.7 points), expected goals (+3.1 points), head to head (+2.2 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.5 points). The line WPG -1.5, total 6.5. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. WPG starter: Stuart Skinner. WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey.
New Jersey Devils over St. Louis Blues, 64%, -205. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+5.0 points), shot share (Corsi) (+3.5 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.9 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.5 points). The line NJD -1.5, total 5.5. STL starter: Joel Hofer (projected). STL out: Dillon Dube, Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker. NJD starter: Connor Hellebuyck (likely).
Carolina Hurricanes over New York Islanders, 62%, -180. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+10.4 points), expected goals (+6.3 points), goal margin (+5.2 points). The case against is rest (-3.1 points). The line CAR -1.5, total 5.5. CAR starter: Brandon Bussi (projected). CAR out: Jordan Staal, Alexander Nikishin. NYI starter: Semyon Varlamov. NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Ryan Pulock, Matias Maccelli.
Edmonton Oilers over Anaheim Ducks, 61%, -185. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+5.2 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.3 points), expected goals (+3.2 points). The case against is recent form (-1.2 points). The line EDM -1.5, total 6.5. ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, A.J. Greer, Troy Terry. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula.
Phoenix Suns over Orlando Magic, 52%, -110. Lean on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+6.5 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 7 games in) (+5.6 points), injuries (PHX without Williams; Goodwin, Fleming day-to-day; ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda) (+4.7 points). The case against is rest (-4.0 points). The line PHX -1.5, total 222.5. ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero. PHX out: Mark Williams. PHX is on the second of a back to back.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | Lock | DAL | DAL at CBJ | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 93% | NHL |
| Leo Carlsson | Lock | ANA | ANA at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.4 | 82% | NHL |
| Filip Forsberg | Lock | NSH | NSH at COL | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.3 | 82% | NHL |
| Jack Hughes | Play | NJD | STL at NJD | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.7 | 78% | NHL |
| Zay Flowers | Play | BAL | JAX at BAL | Over 3.5 receptions | 5.1 | 75% | NFL |
| Cutter Gauthier | Play | ANA | ANA at EDM | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.6 | 70% | NHL |
| Franz Wagner | Lean | ORL | ORL at PHX | Over 21.5 points | 25.7 | 70% | NBA |
| Stephen Curry | Lean | GS | MIA at GS | Over 31.5 points | 37.2 | 69% | NBA |
| Desmond Bane | Lean | ORL | ORL at PHX | Over 19.5 points | 22.7 | 67% | NBA |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Lean | MIA | MIA at GS | Over 23.5 points | 27.2 | 66% | NBA |
| Trevor Lawrence | Lean | JAX | JAX at BAL | Over 193.5 passing yards | 222.4 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Zay Flowers over 3.5 receptions; Trevor Lawrence over 193.5 passing yards | +105 (fair) | 49% | +105 |
| NBA | Games | GS; PHX | +159 | 34% | +198 |
| NBA | Props | Franz Wagner over 21.5 points; Stephen Curry over 31.5 points; Desmond Bane over 19.5 points; Giannis Antetokounmpo over 23.5 points | +372 (fair) | 21% | +372 |
| NBA | Best of both | GS; PHX; Franz Wagner over 21.5 points; Stephen Curry over 31.5 points; Desmond Bane over 19.5 points | +709 | 11% | +829 |
| NHL | Games | TBL; COL; WPG; NJD; CAR; EDM | +837 | 7% | +1333 |
| NHL | Props | Jason Robertson over 1.5 shots on goal; Leo Carlsson over 1.5 shots on goal; Filip Forsberg over 1.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots on goal | +192 (fair) | 34% | +192 |
| NHL | Best of both | TBL; COL; WPG; Jason Robertson over 1.5 shots on goal; Leo Carlsson over 1.5 shots on goal; Filip Forsberg over 1.5 shots on goal | +322 | 18% | +453 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at TBL | NHL | TBL | 68% | 78% | -10 |
| MIA at GS | NBA | GS | 65% | 71% | -6 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at GS | NBA | GS without Butler, Porzingis, Santos | 6.0 pts against GS |
| ORL at PHX | NBA | PHX without Williams; Goodwin, Fleming day-to-day; ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda | 4.7 pts toward PHX |
| BOS at PIT | NHL | PIT without Rust, Soderblom, Riemsdyk; Malkin GTD; BOS: Poitras day-to-day | 1.4 pts against PIT |
| JAX at BAL | NFL | BAL without Hawkins; Wiggins day-to-day; JAX without Murray; Tuten, Walker day-to-day | 1.3 pts against JAX |
| CHI at TBL | NHL | TBL without Girgensons, Gourde; CHI without Kane, Byram | 1.1 pts toward TBL |
| VGK at DET | NHL | DET without Larkin, Kasper, Edvinsson; VGK without Olofsson, Wotherspoon | 0.9 pts toward VGK |
| CAR at NYI | NHL | NYI without Maccelli, Ritchie, Barzal; Pulock GTD; CAR without Staal, Nikishin; Hall GTD | 0.8 pts toward CAR |
| DAL at CBJ | NHL | CBJ without Lundeström; DAL without Duchene, Bäck; Heiskanen GTD | 0.7 pts against DAL |
| UTA at MTL | NHL | MTL without Matheson, Demidov; UTA without Marino, Lamoureux; Yamamoto GTD | 0.5 pts toward UTA |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | NBA | 3.0K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | ORL at PHX | PHX 52% (our pick is the other side) |
| PHX | NBA | second of a back to back | ORL at PHX | PHX 52% (our pick) |
| MIA | NBA | second of a back to back | MIA at GS | GS 65% (our pick is the other side) |
| UTA | NHL | road game 4 | UTA at MTL | UTA 52% (our pick) |
| VAN | NHL | 2 time zones crossed | VAN at WPG | WPG 65% (our pick is the other side) |
| WPG | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | VAN at WPG | WPG 65% (our pick) |
| COL | NHL | 2 time zones crossed | NSH at COL | COL 66% (our pick) |
| DET | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | VGK at DET | VGK 56% (our pick is the other side) |
| EDM | NHL | 3.2K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | ANA at EDM | EDM 61% (our pick) |
| CHI | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | CHI at TBL | TBL 68% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 4)
NBA: 5-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at SA | SA | 83% | -620 | Hit |
| LAL at SAC | LAL | 81% | -650 | Hit |
| CHI at NY | NY | 81% | -597 | Hit |
| MIL at BOS | BOS | 78% | -567 | Hit |
| MIN at HOU | HOU | 70% | -278 | Miss |
| IND at MEM | MEM | 64% | -237 | Miss |
| MIA at LAC | MIA | 64% | -216 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Over 36.5 points | 65% | 40 | Hit |
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 27.5 points | 69% | 52 | Hit |
| Nikola Jokic | Over 22.5 points | 68% | 32 | Hit |
| Cade Cunningham | Over 24.5 points | 67% | 26 | Hit |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 30.5 points | 66% | 42 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+421) missed; the props parlay (+637) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+401) hit.
NHL: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at FLA | FLA | 68% | -258 | Hit |
| OTT at BUF | BUF | 54% | -130 | Miss |
| SJS at LAK | LAK | 59% | -166 | Hit |
| CGY at SEA | SEA | 54% | -130 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 82% | 2 | Miss |
| Drake Batherson | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 79% | 2 | Hit |
| Connor Bedard | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 72% | 4 | Hit |
| Brady Tkachuk | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 67% | 4 | Hit |
| Joel Farabee | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 67% | 3 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+596) missed; the props parlay (+375) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+739) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 15 since Oct 1 | 29-16 | -3.59 u | -8.0% | 30-15 (67%) | 0-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 15 since Oct 20 | 58-19 | +0.94 u | +1.2% | 39-35 (53%) | 3-12 |
| NHL | 36 since Sep 30 | 94-50 | +2.18 u | +1.5% | 110-63 (64%) | 6-30 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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