Best Bets for Wednesday, November 4: SA 82%, NY 82% and 9 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
11 picks to win on the Model Cards for Wednesday, November 4, across the NBA and NHL, plus 10 props. The firmest call is San Antonio Spurs at 82% (-545). Yesterday's cards: NHL 4-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at SA | Lock | SA | 82% | -545 | 81% | +1 | NBA | head to head +5.1, injuries (SA without Harris; DAL without Christie, Aldama, Lively) +3.2 |
| CHI at NY | Lock | NY | 82% | -597 | 82% | 0 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +5.7, head to head +4.2 |
| LAL at SAC | Lock | LAL | 80% | -570 | 82% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +5.7, head to head +4.8 |
| MIL at BOS | Lock | BOS | 80% | -567 | 82% | -2 | NBA | venue +5.8, head to head +5.3 |
| MIN at HOU | Lock | HOU | 70% | -288 | 71% | -1 | NBA | injuries (HOU without Adams; Capela day-to-day; MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; Shannon day-to-day) +6.0, star availability +3.6 |
| CHI at FLA | Lock | FLA | 68% | -258 | 69% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +10.8, goal margin +5.9 |
| IND at MEM | Lock | MEM | 65% | -256 | 69% | -4 | NBA | head to head +6.0, injuries (MEM without Pippen; Post day-to-day; IND without Zubac, Toppin, Sheppard; Oubre day-to-day) +3.8 |
| UTAH at NO | Play | NO | 64% | -228 | 67% | -2 | NBA | head to head +7.4, net rating, last 10 +4.8 |
| SJS at LAK | Lean | LAK | 58% | -155 | 58% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +8.7, expected goals +3.8 |
| CGY at SEA | Lean | SEA | 55% | -135 | 55% | 0 | NHL | goal margin +4.0, rest +3.2 |
| OTT at BUF | Lean | BUF | 54% | -130 | 54% | 0 | NHL | goalies (OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt) +2.3, goalies +1.9 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
San Antonio Spurs over Dallas Mavericks, 82%, -545. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+5.1 points), injuries (SA without Harris; DAL without Christie, Aldama, Lively) (+3.2 points), net rating, last 10 (+2.8 points). The case against is venue (-3.6 points). The line SA -11.5, total 226.5. DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Max Christie, Santi Aldama, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.
New York Knicks over Chicago Bulls, 82%, -597. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.7 points), head to head (+4.2 points), venue (+2.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 7 games in) (-3.9 points). The line NY -11.5, total 234.5. CHI out: Nic Claxton.
Los Angeles Lakers over Sacramento Kings, 80%, -570. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.7 points), head to head (+4.8 points), injuries (SAC without Murray, Raynaud; Achiuwa day-to-day; LAL without Thiero) (+3.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 8 games in) (-5.7 points). The line LAL -11.5, total 234.5. LAL out: Adou Thiero. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud.
Boston Celtics over Milwaukee Bucks, 80%, -567. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+5.8 points), head to head (+5.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.3 points). The case against is injuries (BOS without Pritchard, Carter; Tatum questionable) (-7.1 points). The line BOS -11.5, total 223.5. BOS out: Devin Carter.
Houston Rockets over Minnesota Timberwolves, 70%, -288. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (HOU without Adams; Capela day-to-day; MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; Shannon day-to-day) (+6.0 points), star availability (+3.6 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 8 games in) (-4.4 points). The line HOU -7.5, total 220.5. MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo. HOU out: Steven Adams.
Florida Panthers over Chicago Blackhawks, 68%, -258. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+10.8 points), goal margin (+5.9 points), expected goals (+4.7 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.3 points). The line FLA -1.5, total 5.5. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Bowen Byram, Patrick Kane. FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.
Memphis Grizzlies over Indiana Pacers, 65%, -256. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+6.0 points), injuries (MEM without Pippen; Post day-to-day; IND without Zubac, Toppin, Sheppard; Oubre day-to-day) (+3.8 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 8 games in) (-17.6 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have MEM as the more likely winner. The line MEM -6.5, total 228.5. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell. MEM out: Scotty Pippen Jr.
New Orleans Pelicans over Utah Jazz, 64%, -228. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.4 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.8 points), streak (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 7 games in) (-16.1 points). The line NO -5.5, total 233.5. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, Trey Alexander. NO out: Jordan Poole, Yves Missi.
Los Angeles Kings over San Jose Sharks, 58%, -155. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.7 points), expected goals (+3.8 points), rest (+3.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 16 games in) (-2.4 points). The line LAK -1.5, total 6.5. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected). LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected).
Seattle Kraken over Calgary Flames, 55%, -135. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+4.0 points), rest (+3.2 points), schedule load (+2.1 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-3.7 points). The line SEA -1.5, total 6.5. CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (projected). CGY out: Devin Cooley, Connor Zary, Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek. SEA starter: Joey Daccord (projected). SEA out: Jake O'Brien, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Melanson, Jared McCann.
Buffalo Sabres over Ottawa Senators, 54%, -130. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: goalies (OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt) (+2.3 points), goalies (+1.9 points), head to head (+1.3 points). The case against is goal margin (-2.0 points). The line BUF -1.5, total 6.5. OTT starter: Samuel Ersson. OTT out: Linus Ullmark, Tyler Kleven, Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele, William Eklund. BUF starter: Colten Ellis (likely). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Konsta Helenius, Conor Timmins, Jack Rathbone, Matt Grzelcyk.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | Lock | BUF | OTT at BUF | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.9 | 82% | NHL |
| Drake Batherson | Play | OTT | OTT at BUF | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.2 | 79% | NHL |
| Connor Bedard | Play | CHI | CHI at FLA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 72% | NHL |
| Jalen Johnson | Play | ATL | ATL at WSH | Over 19.5 points | 23.4 | 70% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | DAL at SA | Over 27.5 points | 32.5 | 69% | NBA |
| Nikola Jokic | Lean | DEN | TOR at DEN | Over 22.5 points | 26.5 | 68% | NBA |
| Joel Farabee | Lean | CGY | CGY at SEA | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 1.9 | 67% | NHL |
| Brady Tkachuk | Lean | FLA | CHI at FLA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.2 | 67% | NHL |
| Cade Cunningham | Lean | DET | PHI at DET | Over 24.5 points | 28.5 | 67% | NBA |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | LAL at SAC | Over 36.5 points | 42 | 65% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | SA; NY; LAL; BOS; HOU; MEM; NO | +415 | 13% | +688 |
| NBA | Props | Jalen Johnson over 19.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 27.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 22.5 points; Cade Cunningham over 24.5 points; Luka Doncic over 36.5 points | +595 (fair) | 14% | +595 |
| NBA | Best of both | SA; NY; LAL; Jalen Johnson over 19.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 27.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 22.5 points | +392 | 18% | +461 |
| NHL | Games | FLA; LAK; SEA; BUF | +603 | 12% | +750 |
| NHL | Props | Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal; Drake Batherson over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor Bedard over 2.5 shots on goal; Joel Farabee over 1.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 2.5 shots on goal | +375 (fair) | 21% | +375 |
| NHL | Best of both | FLA; LAK; SEA; Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal; Drake Batherson over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor Bedard over 2.5 shots on goal | +748 | 10% | +886 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR at PHX | NBA | POR | 54% | 58% | -4 |
| IND at MEM | NBA | MEM | 65% | 69% | -4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at BOS | NBA | BOS without Pritchard, Carter; Tatum questionable | 7.1 pts against BOS |
| MIN at HOU | NBA | HOU without Adams; Capela day-to-day; MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; Shannon day-to-day | 6.0 pts toward HOU |
| POR at PHX | NBA | PHX without Williams; Goodwin, Fleming day-to-day; POR without Morant, Sharpe | 4.6 pts against POR |
| ATL at WSH | NBA | WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic; Sarr day-to-day; ATL without Johnson, Landale, Gueye | 4.3 pts against ATL |
| IND at MEM | NBA | MEM without Pippen; Post day-to-day; IND without Zubac, Toppin, Sheppard; Oubre day-to-day | 3.8 pts toward MEM |
| LAL at SAC | NBA | SAC without Murray, Raynaud; Achiuwa day-to-day; LAL without Thiero | 3.7 pts toward LAL |
| PHI at DET | NBA | DET without Duren, Joe; PHI without Barlow, Hukporti | 3.6 pts against DET |
| TOR at DEN | NBA | DEN without Jones, Strawther; Johnson day-to-day; TOR without Leonard; Poeltl day-to-day | 3.2 pts toward DEN |
| DAL at SA | NBA | SA without Harris; DAL without Christie, Aldama, Lively | 3.2 pts toward SA |
| MIA at LAC | NBA | LAC without Ingram, Miller, Beal; MIA: Antetokounmpo, Gardner day-to-day | 3.1 pts toward MIA |
| CLE at OKC | NBA | OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Wallace; Williams questionable; CLE without Watson, Tyson | 2.7 pts against OKC |
| OTT at BUF | NHL | Goalies (OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt | 2.3 pts toward BUF |
| CHA at BKN | NBA | BKN without Demin; CHA without Knueppel, Williams; White day-to-day | 2.2 pts against CHA |
| UTAH at NO | NBA | NO without Poole, Missi; Murphy day-to-day; UTAH without Jackson, Nurkic, Alexander | 0.8 pts toward NO |
| SJS at LAK | NHL | LAK without Zuccarello, Fiala, Turcotte; Kempe, Clarke GTD; SJS without Wennberg, Chernyshov | 0.8 pts against LAK |
| CHI at FLA | NHL | FLA without Marchand, Barkov; CHI without Kane, Byram | 0.8 pts toward FLA |
| CHI at NY | NBA | NY: Hart day-to-day; CHI without Claxton | 0.6 pts toward NY |
| OTT at BUF | NHL | BUF without Grzelcyk, Danforth, Timmins; Kulich, Helenius GTD; OTT without Eklund, Foegele, Burakovsky; Kleven GTD | 0.4 pts toward BUF |
| CGY at SEA | NHL | SEA without McCann, Lindgren; CGY without Huberdeau, Zary, Honzek | 0.4 pts against SEA |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | MIN at HOU | HOU 70% (our pick is the other side) |
| HOU | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | MIN at HOU | HOU 70% (our pick) |
| NO | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | UTAH at NO | NO 64% (our pick) |
| LAC | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | MIA at LAC | MIA 63% (our pick is the other side) |
| TOR | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | TOR at DEN | DEN 63% (our pick is the other side) |
| CHA | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CHA at BKN | CHA 59% (our pick) |
| ATL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | ATL at WSH | ATL 57% (our pick) |
| BOS | NBA | 2.6K km since the last game | MIL at BOS | BOS 80% (our pick) |
| PHI | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | PHI at DET | DET 57% (our pick is the other side) |
| LAL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | LAL at SAC | LAL 80% (our pick) |
| SAC | NBA | 2.3K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | LAL at SAC | LAL 80% (our pick is the other side) |
| CLE | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CLE at OKC | OKC 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| IND | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | IND at MEM | MEM 65% (our pick is the other side) |
| OTT | NHL | 3.5K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed, road game 5 | OTT at BUF | BUF 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| BUF | NHL | 3.5K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | OTT at BUF | BUF 55% (our pick) |
| CGY | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | CGY at SEA | SEA 55% (our pick is the other side) |
The NFL card for Thursday, November 5 is already posted: JAX 78% (-535).
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 3)
NHL: 4-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at TBL | TBL | 68% | -278 | Hit |
| CAR at NSH | CAR | 64% | -198 | Miss |
| MIN at PHI | MIN | 61% | -185 | Hit |
| WPG at MTL | MTL | 60% | -166 | Miss |
| ANA at VAN | ANA | 59% | -155 | Hit |
| EDM at NJD | NJD | 58% | -162 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 70% | 1 | Miss |
| Cutter Gauthier | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 85% | 6 | Hit |
| Jack Hughes | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 74% | 5 | Hit |
| Connor McDavid | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 66% | 1 | Miss |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | 1 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1244) missed; the props parlay (+278) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+450) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 15 since Oct 1 | 29-16 | -3.59 u | -8.0% | 30-15 (67%) | 0-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 14 since Oct 20 | 53-17 | +1.81 u | +2.6% | 34-35 (49%) | 3-11 |
| NHL | 35 since Sep 30 | 91-49 | +1.42 u | +1.0% | 106-62 (63%) | 6-29 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.