Best Bets for Tuesday, November 10: NY 87%, MIA 74% and 6 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
8 picks to win on the Model Cards for Tuesday, November 10, across the NBA and NHL, plus 10 props. The firmest call is New York Knicks at 87% (-1040). Yesterday's cards: NFL 1-0, NBA 5-1, NHL 2-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at NY | Lock | NY | 87% | -1040 | 88% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +5.2, head to head +3.5 |
| MIA at UTAH | Lock | MIA | 74% | -359 | 75% | -1 | NBA | injuries (UTAH without George, Jackson, Nurkic; Markkanen questionable; MIA: Antetokounmpo day-to-day) +8.6, venue +4.6 |
| ORL at SAC | Lock | ORL | 66% | -229 | 67% | -1 | NBA | venue +5.4, net rating +4.9 |
| LAC at PHX | Play | PHX | 60% | -167 | 60% | 0 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 9 games in) +13.5, venue +6.2 |
| COL at TOR | Play | COL | 59% | -175 | 61% | -2 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +8.1, expected goals +4.2 |
| NJD at WPG | Lean | NJD | 57% | -148 | 57% | 0 | NHL | goal margin +6.3, expected goals (5v5) +6.3 |
| DET at STL | Lean | STL | 56% | -142 | 56% | 0 | NHL | penalty kill +1.6, goal margin +1.0 |
| NSH at LAK | Lean | LAK | 55% | -135 | 55% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +5.1, shot share (Corsi) +1.7 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
New York Knicks over Milwaukee Bucks, 87%, -1040. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.2 points), head to head (+3.5 points), net rating (+2.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 10 games in) (-3.6 points). The line NY -15.5, total 221.5.
Miami Heat over Utah Jazz, 74%, -359. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (UTAH without George, Jackson, Nurkic; Markkanen questionable; MIA: Antetokounmpo day-to-day) (+8.6 points), venue (+4.6 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (-9.5 points). The line MIA -8.5, total 227.5. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, Keyonte George.
Orlando Magic over Sacramento Kings, 66%, -229. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+5.4 points), net rating (+4.9 points), travel (+3.3 points). The case against is home/road split (-3.2 points). The line ORL -6.5, total 223.5. ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Maxime Raynaud.
Phoenix Suns over LA Clippers, 60%, -167. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 9 games in) (+13.5 points), venue (+6.2 points), head to head (+4.2 points). The case against is rest (-3.7 points). The line PHX -3.5, total 224.5. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Yanic Konan Niederhauser. PHX out: Jordan Goodwin, Mark Williams. PHX is on the second of a back to back.
Colorado Avalanche over Toronto Maple Leafs, 59%, -175. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.1 points), expected goals (+4.2 points), goal margin (+3.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 19 and 18 games in) (-2.2 points). The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux. TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky. TOR out: Colton Sissons, Max Domi, Marshall Rifai, Morgan Rielly, Nick Blankenburg. Crew: Michael Markovic has been tough on COL (+0.7 penalties a game versus its norm, 7-0-0 in 7 games).
New Jersey Devils over Winnipeg Jets, 57%, -148. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+6.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+6.3 points), expected goals (+5.7 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.7 points). The line NJD -1.5, total 6.5. NJD starter: Jake Allen. WPG starter: Nico Daws (likely). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Elias Salomonsson. Crew: Chris Schlenker has been tough on NJD (+0.8 penalties a game versus its norm, 4-1-0 in 5 games). Crew: Peter MacDougall has been tough on WPG (+0.6 penalties a game versus its norm, 3-3-1 in 7 games).
St. Louis Blues over Detroit Red Wings, 56%, -142. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: penalty kill (+1.6 points), goal margin (+1.0 points), shot margin (+1.0 points). The case against is expected goals (-1.7 points). The line STL -1.5, total 5.5. DET starter: John Gibson (projected). DET out: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson. STL starter: Joel Hofer (likely). STL out: Dillon Dube, Tyler Tucker.
Los Angeles Kings over Nashville Predators, 55%, -135. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+5.1 points), shot share (Corsi) (+1.7 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 15 and 17 games in) (+1.0 points). The case against is goal margin (-2.2 points). The line LAK -1.5, total 6.5. NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). LAK starter: Darcy Kuemper (projected).
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | Lock | COL | COL at TOR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 93% | NHL |
| Cale Makar | Lock | COL | COL at TOR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.5 | 84% | NHL |
| Jack Hughes | Lock | NJD | NJD at WPG | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.1 | 84% | NHL |
| Brady Tkachuk | Play | FLA | FLA at CBJ | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.9 | 75% | NHL |
| Cole Caufield | Play | MTL | MIN at MTL | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 75% | NHL |
| Jalen Brunson | Lean | NY | MIL at NY | Over 24.5 points | 28.9 | 68% | NBA |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Lean | MIA | MIA at UTAH | Over 23.5 points | 27.3 | 67% | NBA |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Lean | OKC | OKC at POR | Over 32.5 points | 37.7 | 66% | NBA |
| Franz Wagner | Lean | ORL | ORL at SAC | Over 24.5 points | 28.3 | 66% | NBA |
| Anthony Black | Lean | ORL | ORL at SAC | Over 17.5 points | 20.2 | 66% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | NY; MIA; ORL; PHX | +222 | 26% | +287 |
| NBA | Props | Jalen Brunson over 24.5 points; Giannis Antetokounmpo over 23.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points; Franz Wagner over 24.5 points; Anthony Black over 17.5 points | +664 (fair) | 13% | +664 |
| NBA | Best of both | NY; MIA; ORL; Jalen Brunson over 24.5 points; Giannis Antetokounmpo over 23.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points | +566 | 13% | +672 |
| NHL | Games | COL; NJD; STL; LAK | +681 | 10% | +865 |
| NHL | Props | Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 shots on goal; Cale Makar over 1.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal; Brady Tkachuk over 3.5 shots on goal; Cole Caufield over 2.5 shots on goal | +174 (fair) | 36% | +174 |
| NHL | Best of both | COL; NJD; STL; Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 shots on goal; Cale Makar over 1.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal | +583 | 12% | +711 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at UTAH | NBA | UTAH without George, Jackson, Nurkic; Markkanen questionable; MIA: Antetokounmpo day-to-day | 8.6 pts toward MIA |
| ORL at SAC | NBA | SAC without Raynaud; Murray, Sabonis day-to-day; ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; Silva day-to-day | 2.9 pts against ORL |
| LAC at PHX | NBA | PHX without Goodwin, Williams; LAC without Ingram, Miller, Beal; Christie day-to-day | 2.0 pts toward PHX |
| WSH at OTT | NHL | Goalies (OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt | 1.8 pts toward WSH |
| COL at TOR | NHL | TOR without Marchenko, Sissons, Rifai; Roslovic, Rielly GTD; COL without Manson, L'Heureux | 1.3 pts toward COL |
| BOS at PHI | NBA | PHI without Bona, Barlow, Hukporti | 1.2 pts toward BOS |
| DET at STL | NHL | STL without Tucker; DET without Larkin, Kasper, Edvinsson | 1.0 pts toward STL |
| MIN at MTL | NHL | MTL without Matheson, Demidov; Evans GTD; MIN without Faber | 0.7 pts toward MIN |
| MIL at NY | NBA | NY: Hart day-to-day; MIL: Herro day-to-day | 0.6 pts toward NY |
| FLA at CBJ | NHL | CBJ: Mateychuk GTD; FLA without Marchand, Barkov, Vilmanis | 0.5 pts against FLA |
| NJD at WPG | NHL | WPG without Namestnikov; Salomonsson GTD; NJD without Mantha, Casey | 0.4 pts against NJD |
| NSH at LAK | NHL | LAK without Zuccarello, Fiala; NSH: Marchessault GTD | 0.4 pts against LAK |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | LAC at PHX | PHX 60% (our pick) |
| MIA | NBA | road game 5 | MIA at UTAH | MIA 74% (our pick) |
| OKC | NBA | 2.4K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | OKC at POR | OKC 57% (our pick) |
| COL | NHL | 2.2K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | COL at TOR | COL 61% (our pick) |
| NJD | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | NJD at WPG | NJD 57% (our pick) |
| NSH | NHL | 2.9K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | NSH at LAK | LAK 55% (our pick is the other side) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 9)
NFL: 1-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at MIN | BUF | 62% | -198 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Over 151.5 passing yards | 65% | 234 | Hit |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Over 65.5 rushing yards | 65% | 16 | Miss |
Tickets: the props parlay (+134) missed.
NBA: 5-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO at GS | GS | 81% | -569 | Hit |
| WSH at DET | DET | 80% | -411 | Hit |
| SA at PHX | SA | 74% | -372 | Hit |
| CLE at CHA | CLE | 73% | -353 | Miss |
| DEN at HOU | HOU | 61% | -173 | Hit |
| IND at DAL | DAL | 60% | -191 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 33.5 points | 67% | 40 | Hit |
| Luka Doncic | Over 33.5 points | 65% | 32 | Miss |
| Stephen Curry | Over 34.5 points | 65% | 25 | Miss |
| Alperen Sengun | Over 20.5 points | 66% | 20 | Miss |
| Cade Cunningham | Over 21.5 points | 70% | 17 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+472) missed; the props parlay (+650) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+490) missed.
NHL: 2-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR at EDM | EDM | 59% | -162 | Hit |
| NYI at SJS | NYI | 56% | -142 | Miss |
| PHI at VAN | PHI | 55% | -135 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 75% | 4 | Hit |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | 4 | Hit |
| Macklin Celebrini | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 75% | 6 | Hit |
| Matthew Schaefer | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 88% | 5 | Hit |
| Brock Boeser | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 70% | 1 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+380) missed; the props parlay (+211) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+690) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 18 since Oct 1 | 38-16 | -0.37 u | -0.7% | 33-21 (61%) | 1-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 20 since Oct 20 | 83-22 | +6.93 u | +6.6% | 47-51 (48%) | 5-15 |
| NHL | 41 since Sep 30 | 109-55 | +4.53 u | +2.8% | 130-68 (66%) | 7-34 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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