Best Bets for Sunday, November 8: MIN 82%, BOS 82% and 15 More Picks Across the NFL, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
17 picks to win on the Model Cards for Sunday, November 8, across the NFL, NBA and NHL, plus 15 props. The firmest call is Minnesota Timberwolves at 82% (-650). Yesterday's cards: NBA 6-1, NHL 4-0 with the parlay hitting. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH at MIN | Lock | MIN | 82% | -650 | 83% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.7, head to head +3.9 |
| BOS at MIL | Lock | BOS | 82% | -750 | 85% | -3 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.3, head to head +5.3 |
| LV at SF | Lock | SF | 78% | -440 | 78% | 0 | NFL | EPA per play +19.8, point margin +7.1 |
| MIA at SAC | Lock | MIA | 77% | -446 | 78% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +5.0, venue +4.1 |
| NYJ at KC | Lock | KC | 76% | -500 | 80% | -4 | NFL | EPA per play +17.8, point margin +6.1 |
| ARI at SEA | Lock | SEA | 76% | -440 | 78% | -2 | NFL | EPA per play +16.2, point margin +8.7 |
| PHI at CHI | Lock | PHI | 76% | -420 | 78% | -2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +9.0, net rating +3.4 |
| BKN at DAL | Lock | DAL | 73% | -324 | 73% | 0 | NBA | head to head +7.5, net rating, last 10 +6.3 |
| HOU at LAC | Lock | HOU | 73% | -230 | 67% | +6 | NFL | EPA per play +15.6, point margin +8.5 |
| LAR at WSH | Lock | LAR | 71% | -225 | 66% | +5 | NFL | EPA per play +21.5, point margin +6.7 |
| DET at MIA | Lock | DET | 71% | -305 | 72% | -2 | NFL | EPA per play +19.9, point margin +10.3 |
| NYG at PHI | Play | NYG | 64% | -155 | 58% | +6 | NFL | point margin +8.7, EPA per play +6.2 |
| LAL at DET | Play | DET | 63% | -191 | 63% | 0 | NBA | head to head +2.8, defense +1.8 |
| NJD at TOR | Lean | NJD | 58% | -155 | 58% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +6.5, expected goals +6.1 |
| TBL at WPG | Lean | TBL | 57% | -148 | 57% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +8.8, goal margin +6.0 |
| FLA at BOS | Lean | BOS | 57% | -148 | 57% | 0 | NHL | back to back +7.3, rest +6.4 |
| PIT at ANA | Lean | ANA | 53% | -120 | 52% | +1 | NHL | back to back +7.4, rest +6.5 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Minnesota Timberwolves over Utah Jazz, 82%, -650. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.7 points), head to head (+3.9 points), net rating (+3.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 9 games in) (-11.3 points). The line MIN -12.5, total 222.5. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic. MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo.
Boston Celtics over Milwaukee Bucks, 82%, -750. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.3 points), head to head (+5.3 points), net rating (+3.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 9 games in) (-6.8 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have BOS as the more likely winner. The line BOS -13.5, total 221.5.
San Francisco 49ers over Las Vegas Raiders, 78%, -440. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.8 points), point margin (+7.1 points), yards margin (+3.0 points). The case against is injuries (SF without Evans, Samuel, Aiyuk; LV: Porter day-to-day) (-4.4 points). The line SF -9.5, total 51.5. LV starter: Kirk Cousins. LV out: Thomas Booker IV. SF starter: Brock Purdy. SF out: Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, De'Zhaun Stribling, Deebo Samuel Sr., Mike Evans.
Miami Heat over Sacramento Kings, 77%, -446. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.0 points), venue (+4.1 points), net rating (+3.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 9 games in) (-3.6 points). The line MIA -10.5, total 237.5. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud.
Kansas City Chiefs over New York Jets, 76%, -500. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+17.8 points), point margin (+6.1 points), motivation (+2.3 points). The case against is defense (-1.4 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have KC as the more likely winner. The line KC -9.5, total 47.5. NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: Garrett Wilson, Tim Patrick, Blake Freeland, Joseph Ossai, Kiko Mauigoa. KC starter: Patrick Mahomes. KC out: Garrett Nussmeier, Ben VanSumeren, Diego Pounds, Jack Pyburn, L'Jarius Sneed. Crew: Adrian Hill has been tough on KC (+1.5 flags a game versus its norm, 3-1 in 4 games).
Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals, 76%, -440. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+16.2 points), point margin (+8.7 points), yards margin (+2.8 points). The case against is defense (-2.1 points). The line SEA -8.5, total 39.5. ARI starter: Gardner Minshew II. ARI out: Bam Knight, James Conner, Jeremiyah Love, Jalen Brooks, Kendrick Bourne. SEA starter: Drew Lock. SEA out: Sam Darnold, Rashid Shaheed, Brandon Pili, Charles Cross, Leonard Williams. Crew: Clete Blakeman has been friendly to SEA (-1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-3 in 5 games). Crew: Clete Blakeman has been friendly to ARI (3-2 in 5 games with this referee, a win rate 19 points above its norm under others).
Philadelphia 76ers over Chicago Bulls, 76%, -420. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+9.0 points), net rating (+3.4 points), injuries (CHI without Collins, Claxton; Powell, Smith questionable; PHI without Bona, Barlow, Hukporti; Embiid probable) (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 10 games in) (-4.1 points). The line PHI -9.5, total 237.5. PHI out: Adem Bona, Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow. CHI out: Nic Claxton, Zach Collins.
Dallas Mavericks over Brooklyn Nets, 73%, -324. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.5 points), net rating, last 10 (+6.3 points), rest (+3.0 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 9 games in) (-7.6 points). The line DAL -7.5, total 222.5. BKN out: Egor Demin, Mikel Brown Jr. BKN is on the second of a back to back. DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic.
Houston Texans over Los Angeles Chargers, 73%, -230. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+15.6 points), point margin (+8.5 points), offense (+4.8 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-3.1 points). We like this side 6 points more than the price does. The line HOU -5.5, total 40.5. HOU starter: C.J. Stroud. HOU out: David Montgomery, Jawhar Jordan, Jaylin Noel, Jaylin Smith, Reed Blankenship. LAC starter: Justin Herbert. LAC out: Brenen Thompson, David Njoku, Deane Leonard, Denzel Perryman, Derwin James Jr.
Los Angeles Rams over Washington Commanders, 71%, -225. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+21.5 points), point margin (+6.7 points), yards margin (+3.5 points). The case against is defense (-1.7 points). We like this side 5 points more than the price does. The line LAR -4.5, total 47.5. LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Ty Simpson, Dean Connors, Terrance Ferguson, Bill Murray, Darryl Peterson III. WSH starter: Jayden Daniels. WSH out: Athan Kaliakmanis, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane.
Detroit Lions over Miami Dolphins, 71%, -305. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.9 points), point margin (+10.3 points), offense (+5.9 points). The case against is injuries (MIA without Baker; DET without Campbell, Reed, Pacheco) (-4.1 points). The line DET -6.5, total 49.5. DET starter: Jared Goff. DET out: Isiah Pacheco, Jacob Saylors, Jackson Meeks, Ahmed Hassanein, Cade Mays. MIA starter: Malik Willis. MIA out: Jaylen Wright, Jalen Tolbert, Justin Joly, Christian Haynes, Chukwuebuka Godrick. Crew: Land Clark has been friendly to DET (-1.7 flags a game versus its norm, 3-0 in 3 games).
New York Giants over Philadelphia Eagles, 64%, -155. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: point margin (+8.7 points), EPA per play (+6.2 points), recent form (+4.7 points). The case against is venue (-1.4 points). We like this side 6 points more than the price does. The line NYG -3.0, total 38.5. NYG starter: J.J. McCarthy. NYG out: Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Thomas Fidone II, CJ Okoye, Colton Hood. PHI starter: Joe Milton. PHI out: Tank Bigsby, Britain Covey, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, Jihaad Campbell.
Detroit Pistons over Los Angeles Lakers, 63%, -191. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+2.8 points), defense (+1.8 points), rest (+1.8 points). The case against is venue (-8.1 points). The line DET -4.5, total 221.5. DET out: Isaiah Joe, Jalen Duren.
New Jersey Devils over Toronto Maple Leafs, 58%, -155. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.5 points), expected goals (+6.1 points), shot share (Corsi) (+4.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 18 and 17 games in) (-3.1 points). The line NJD -1.5, total 6.5. NJD starter: Connor Hellebuyck (projected). NJD is on the second of a back to back. TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz (likely). TOR out: Max Domi, Marshall Rifai, Nick Blankenburg, Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood. TOR is on the second of a back to back.
Tampa Bay Lightning over Winnipeg Jets, 57%, -148. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.8 points), goal margin (+6.0 points), expected goals (+5.3 points). The case against is back to back (-7.3 points). The line TBL -1.5, total 6.5. TBL starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected). TBL is on the second of a back to back. WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (likely). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Elias Salomonsson, Josh Morrissey.
Boston Bruins over Florida Panthers, 57%, -148. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.3 points), rest (+6.4 points), goal margin (+4.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 17 and 17 games in) (-4.0 points). The line BOS -1.5, total 6.5. FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich, Sandis Vilmanis. FLA is on the second of a back to back. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected). BOS out: James Hagens.
Anaheim Ducks over Pittsburgh Penguins, 53%, -120. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.4 points), rest (+6.5 points), head to head (+1.6 points). The case against is expected goals (5v5) (-5.7 points). The line ANA -1.5, total 6.5. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Bryan Rust, Elmer Soderblom. PIT is on the second of a back to back. ANA starter: Ville Husso (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, A.J. Greer, Troy Terry.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | Lock | BUF | VGK at BUF | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.1 | 85% | NHL |
| Jack Hughes | Play | NJD | NJD at TOR | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.8 | 79% | NHL |
| Leo Carlsson | Play | ANA | PIT at ANA | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.2 | 79% | NHL |
| LaMelo Ball | Lean | MIN | UTAH at MIN | Over 25.5 points | 30.3 | 69% | NBA |
| Jaylen Brown | Lean | PHI | PHI at CHI | Over 24.5 points | 29.1 | 69% | NBA |
| Cade Cunningham | Lean | DET | LAL at DET | Over 23.5 points | 27.8 | 69% | NBA |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | LAL at DET | Over 31.5 points | 37.2 | 69% | NBA |
| Kyle Connor | Lean | WPG | TBL at WPG | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.2 | 68% | NHL |
| Christian McCaffrey | Lean | SF | LV at SF | Over 61.5 rushing yards | 80.4 | 66% | NFL |
| Cutter Gauthier | Lean | ANA | PIT at ANA | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.4 | 66% | NHL |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Lean | MIA | MIA at SAC | Over 25.5 points | 29.4 | 66% | NBA |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Lean | DET | DET at MIA | Over 77.5 rushing yards | 100.3 | 65% | NFL |
| Brock Purdy | Lean | SF | LV at SF | Over 272.5 passing yards | 313.6 | 65% | NFL |
| Joe Burrow | Lean | CIN | CIN at ATL | Over 340.5 passing yards | 391.1 | 65% | NFL |
| Kenneth Walker III | Lean | KC | NYJ at KC | Over 104.5 rushing yards | 134.7 | 65% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Games | SF; KC; SEA; HOU; LAR; DET; NYG | +718 | 11% | +836 |
| NFL | Props | Christian McCaffrey over 61.5 rushing yards; Jahmyr Gibbs over 77.5 rushing yards; Brock Purdy over 272.5 passing yards; Joe Burrow over 340.5 passing yards; Kenneth Walker III over 104.5 rushing yards | +734 (fair) | 12% | +734 |
| NFL | Best of both | SF; KC; SEA; Christian McCaffrey over 61.5 rushing yards; Jahmyr Gibbs over 77.5 rushing yards; Joe Burrow over 340.5 passing yards | +542 | 13% | +687 |
| NBA | Games | MIN; BOS; MIA; PHI; DAL; DET | +295 | 18% | +449 |
| NBA | Props | LaMelo Ball over 25.5 points; Jaylen Brown over 24.5 points; Cade Cunningham over 23.5 points; Luka Doncic over 31.5 points; Giannis Antetokounmpo over 25.5 points | +574 (fair) | 15% | +574 |
| NBA | Best of both | MIN; BOS; MIA; LaMelo Ball over 25.5 points; Jaylen Brown over 24.5 points; Cade Cunningham over 23.5 points | +385 | 17% | +479 |
| NHL | Games | NJD; TBL; BOS; ANA | +747 | 10% | +911 |
| NHL | Props | Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal; Leo Carlsson over 1.5 shots on goal; Kyle Connor over 2.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots on goal | +318 (fair) | 24% | +318 |
| NHL | Best of both | NJD; TBL; BOS; Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal; Leo Carlsson over 1.5 shots on goal | +768 | 10% | +903 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU at LAC | NFL | HOU | 72% | 67% | +6 |
| LAR at WSH | NFL | LAR | 71% | 66% | +5 |
| NYG at PHI | NFL | NYG | 64% | 58% | +5 |
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB at NE | NFL | NE | 50.2% | 60% | -10 |
| TB at CHI | NFL | CHI | 62% | 70% | -8 |
| DAL at IND | NFL | DAL | 60% | 66% | -5 |
| NYJ at KC | NFL | KC | 76% | 80% | -4 |
| CLE at NO | NFL | NO | 60% | 63% | -3 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO at LAC | NBA | LAC without Ingram, Miller, Jackson; NO without Missi | 5.0 pts toward NO |
| LV at SF | NFL | SF without Evans, Samuel, Aiyuk; LV: Porter day-to-day | 4.4 pts against SF |
| DET at MIA | NFL | MIA without Baker; DET without Campbell, Reed, Pacheco | 4.1 pts against DET |
| PHI at CHI | NBA | CHI without Collins, Claxton; Powell, Smith questionable; PHI without Bona, Barlow, Hukporti; Embiid probable | 3.4 pts toward PHI |
| LAR at WSH | NFL | WSH without McLaurin, Croskey-Merritt, Payne; LAR without McDuffie, Watson | 3.1 pts toward LAR |
| GB at NE | NFL | NE without Brown; Hollins day-to-day; GB without Franklin, Parsons; Lloyd day-to-day | 3.0 pts against NE |
| MIA at SAC | NBA | SAC without Murray, Raynaud | 2.8 pts toward MIA |
| ARI at SEA | NFL | SEA without Williams, Arnold, Shaheed; ARI without Conner, Love; Melton day-to-day | 2.1 pts toward SEA |
| TB at CHI | NFL | CHI: Monangai, Stevenson day-to-day; TB without McMillan; Egbuka day-to-day | 2.0 pts toward CHI |
| CLE at NO | NFL | NO without Etienne; CLE without Collins, Igbinoghene | 2.0 pts against NO |
| NYJ at KC | NFL | KC without Delane, Sneed; NYJ without Wilson, Wright, Wallace | 2.0 pts toward KC |
| HOU at LAC | NFL | LAC without James, Njoku, Perryman; HOU without Blankenship, Jordan | 2.0 pts toward HOU |
| DAL at IND | NFL | IND without Davis-Gaither, Pierce, Walley; DAL without Pickens, Thompson; Porter, Overshown day-to-day | 1.6 pts toward DAL |
| UTAH at MIN | NBA | MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; Beringer day-to-day; UTAH without Jackson, Nurkic; Markkanen, George day-to-day | 1.5 pts toward MIN |
| LAL at DET | NBA | DET without Duren, Joe; LAL: Doncic day-to-day | 1.2 pts against DET |
| NYG at PHI | NFL | PHI without Campbell, Smith, Jones; NYG without Skattebo, Hood, Tracy | 1.1 pts toward NYG |
| BKN at DAL | NBA | DAL without Lively; BKN without Demin | 1.1 pts toward DAL |
| NJD at TOR | NHL | TOR without Marchenko, Rifai, Blankenburg; Rielly GTD; NJD without Casey | 0.9 pts toward NJD |
| TBL at WPG | NHL | WPG without Morrissey, Namestnikov; Salomonsson GTD; TBL without Gourde | 0.5 pts toward TBL |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | NBA | road game 4 | UTAH at MIN | MIN 82% (our pick is the other side) |
| NO | NBA | 2.7K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | NO at LAC | NO 51% (our pick) |
| MIA | NBA | road game 4 | MIA at SAC | MIA 77% (our pick) |
| BOS | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | BOS at MIL | BOS 82% (our pick) |
| BKN | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | BKN at DAL | DAL 73% (our pick is the other side) |
| LAL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days, 3.2K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | LAL at DET | DET 63% (our pick is the other side) |
| FLA | NHL | second of a back to back | FLA at BOS | BOS 57% (our pick is the other side) |
| NJD | NHL | second of a back to back | NJD at TOR | NJD 58% (our pick) |
| TOR | NHL | second of a back to back | NJD at TOR | NJD 58% (our pick is the other side) |
| VGK | NHL | road game 4 | VGK at BUF | VGK 50.4% (our pick) |
| TBL | NHL | second of a back to back | TBL at WPG | TBL 57% (our pick) |
| PIT | NHL | second of a back to back | PIT at ANA | ANA 53% (our pick is the other side) |
| ANA | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | PIT at ANA | ANA 53% (our pick) |
| PHI | NHL | 3.3K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | PHI at CGY | PHI 51% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 7)
NBA: 6-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN at IND | DEN | 70% | -324 | Hit |
| WSH at OKC | OKC | 81% | -546 | Hit |
| BKN at ATL | ATL | 73% | -283 | Hit |
| ORL at GS | GS | 69% | -284 | Hit |
| HOU at PHX | HOU | 67% | -264 | Miss |
| SA at POR | SA | 66% | -205 | Hit |
| NY at CLE | NY | 62% | -197 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Over 22.5 points | 69% | 19 | Miss |
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 28.5 points | 69% | 29 | Hit |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 31.5 points | 68% | 30 | Miss |
| Stephen Curry | Over 31.5 points | 69% | 41 | Hit |
| Alperen Sengun | Over 19.5 points | 68% | 15 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+776) missed; the props parlay (+566) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+548) missed.
NHL: 4-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS at DAL | DAL | 68% | -290 | Hit |
| VAN at EDM | EDM | 68% | -375 | Hit |
| CHI at CAR | CAR | 68% | -440 | Hit |
| DET at COL | COL | 66% | -225 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 84% | 5 | Hit |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 92% | 3 | Hit |
| Logan Cooley | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 80% | 2 | Hit |
| Evan Bouchard | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 88% | 1 | Miss |
| Auston Matthews | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 3 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+202) hit; the props parlay (-104) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+176) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 16 since Oct 1 | 30-16 | -3.39 u | -7.4% | 31-16 (66%) | 0-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 18 since Oct 20 | 73-20 | +6.13 u | +6.6% | 43-45 (49%) | 5-13 |
| NHL | 39 since Sep 30 | 104-53 | +3.04 u | +1.9% | 122-66 (65%) | 7-32 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
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