Best Bets for Saturday, November 7: OKC 81%, ATL 71% and 9 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
11 picks to win on the Model Cards for Saturday, November 7, across the NBA and NHL, plus 10 props. The firmest call is Oklahoma City Thunder at 81% (-545). Yesterday's cards: NBA 7-0 with the parlay hitting, NHL 2-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at OKC | Lock | OKC | 81% | -545 | 81% | 0 | NBA | head to head +7.3, venue +5.4 |
| BKN at ATL | Lock | ATL | 71% | -269 | 70% | +1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.3, head to head +6.7 |
| HOU at PHX | Lock | HOU | 68% | -284 | 71% | -3 | NBA | head to head +10.9, net rating, last 10 +9.0 |
| VAN at EDM | Lock | EDM | 68% | -310 | 73% | -5 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +8.9, goal margin +7.8 |
| SJS at DAL | Lock | DAL | 68% | -305 | 72% | -4 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.7, back to back +6.5 |
| CHI at CAR | Lock | CAR | 68% | -440 | 78% | -10 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +14.4, goal margin +8.3 |
| DEN at IND | Lock | DEN | 67% | -268 | 70% | -3 | NBA | head to head +8.5, shooting (eFG) +4.6 |
| SA at POR | Lock | SA | 66% | -217 | 66% | +1 | NBA | venue +7.2, head to head +6.3 |
| DET at COL | Lock | COL | 66% | -225 | 66% | -1 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +4.7, venue +3.7 |
| ORL at GS | Play | GS | 64% | -217 | 66% | -2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +9.1, venue +6.0 |
| NY at CLE | Play | NY | 61% | -191 | 63% | -2 | NBA | head to head +7.3, rest +3.8 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Oklahoma City Thunder over Washington Wizards, 81%, -545. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.3 points), venue (+5.4 points), defense (+2.5 points). The case against is injuries (OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Wallace; Williams day-to-day; WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic; Davis day-to-day) (-3.1 points). The line OKC -11.5, total 222.5. WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic. WSH is on the second of a back to back. OKC out: Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Thomas Sorber. OKC is on the second of a back to back.
Atlanta Hawks over Brooklyn Nets, 71%, -269. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.3 points), head to head (+6.7 points), defense (+2.8 points). The case against is injuries (ATL without Johnson, Landale, Gueye; Newell day-to-day; BKN without Demin; Clowney, Sharpe day-to-day) (-4.5 points). The line ATL -7.5, total 227.5. BKN out: Egor Demin, Tyler Bilodeau. ATL out: Henri Veesaar, Jalen Johnson, Jock Landale, Mouhamed Gueye. ATL is on the second of a back to back.
Houston Rockets over Phoenix Suns, 68%, -284. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+10.9 points), net rating, last 10 (+9.0 points), record (+1.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 9 games in) (-13.9 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have HOU as the more likely winner. The line HOU -7.5, total 223.5. HOU out: Clint Capela, Steven Adams. PHX out: Mark Williams.
Edmonton Oilers over Vancouver Canucks, 68%, -310. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+8.9 points), goal margin (+7.8 points), expected goals (+5.8 points). The case against is recent form (-2.6 points). The market is 5 points firmer on it than we are; we still have EDM as the more likely winner. The line EDM -1.5, total 6.5. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula.
Dallas Stars over San Jose Sharks, 68%, -305. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.7 points), back to back (+6.5 points), rest (+5.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 16 and 18 games in) (-2.0 points). The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DAL as the more likely winner. The line DAL -1.5, total 6.5. SJS starter: Alex Nedeljkovic (projected). SJS is on the second of a back to back. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger. DAL out: Matt Duchene, Kyle Capobianco, Luke Krys, Miro Heiskanen.
Carolina Hurricanes over Chicago Blackhawks, 68%, -440. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+14.4 points), goal margin (+8.3 points), expected goals (+7.3 points). The case against is shot margin (-3.1 points). The market is 10 points firmer on it than we are; we still have CAR as the more likely winner. The line CAR -1.5, total 6.5. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (likely). CHI out: Bowen Byram, Patrick Kane. CAR starter: Pyotr Kochetkov (likely). CAR out: Jordan Staal.
Denver Nuggets over Indiana Pacers, 67%, -268. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+8.5 points), shooting (eFG) (+4.6 points), venue (+4.0 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 7 games in) (-12.2 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DEN as the more likely winner. The line DEN -7.5, total 229.5. DEN out: Julian Strawther. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton.
San Antonio Spurs over Portland Trail Blazers, 66%, -217. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+7.2 points), head to head (+6.3 points), injuries (POR without Morant, Sharpe, Krejci; SA without Harris) (+5.5 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.0 points). The line SA -5.5, total 226.5. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris. SA is on the second of a back to back. POR out: Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe, Vit Krejci. POR is on the second of a back to back.
Colorado Avalanche over Detroit Red Wings, 66%, -225. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.7 points), venue (+3.7 points), goal margin (+3.4 points). The case against is shot margin (-0.9 points). The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. DET starter: Daniil Tarasov (projected). DET out: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson. COL starter: Mackenzie Blackwood (projected). COL out: Josh Manson, Zachary L'Heureux.
Golden State Warriors over Orlando Magic, 64%, -217. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+9.1 points), venue (+6.0 points), head to head (+4.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 8 games in) (-12.5 points). The line GS -5.5, total 222.5. ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero. GS out: Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody.
New York Knicks over Cleveland Cavaliers, 61%, -191. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+7.3 points), rest (+3.8 points), injuries (CLE without Allen, Tyson; Merrill day-to-day; NY without Hart) (+3.0 points). The case against is venue (-8.4 points). The line NY -4.5, total 224.5. NY out: Josh Hart. CLE out: Jaylon Tyson. CLE is on the second of a back to back.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | Lock | TOR | MTL at TOR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 93% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | VAN at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 92% | NHL |
| Evan Bouchard | Lock | EDM | VAN at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.7 | 88% | NHL |
| Jack Hughes | Lock | NJD | NJD at NYI | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4.1 | 84% | NHL |
| Logan Cooley | Play | UTA | UTA at OTT | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.3 | 80% | NHL |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | SA at POR | Over 28.5 points | 33.7 | 69% | NBA |
| Nikola Jokic | Lean | DEN | DEN at IND | Over 22.5 points | 26.6 | 69% | NBA |
| Stephen Curry | Lean | GS | ORL at GS | Over 31.5 points | 37.2 | 69% | NBA |
| Alperen Sengun | Lean | HOU | HOU at PHX | Over 19.5 points | 23 | 68% | NBA |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Lean | OKC | WSH at OKC | Over 31.5 points | 37 | 68% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | OKC; ATL; HOU; DEN; SA; GS; NY | +880 | 7% | +1362 |
| NBA | Props | Victor Wembanyama over 28.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 22.5 points; Stephen Curry over 31.5 points; Alperen Sengun over 19.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points | +566 (fair) | 15% | +566 |
| NBA | Best of both | OKC; ATL; HOU; Victor Wembanyama over 28.5 points; Nikola Jokic over 22.5 points; Stephen Curry over 31.5 points | +579 | 13% | +687 |
| NHL | Games | EDM; DAL; CAR; COL | +211 | 21% | +383 |
| NHL | Props | Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Evan Bouchard over 1.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal; Logan Cooley over 1.5 shots on goal | -104 (fair) | 51% | -104 |
| NHL | Best of both | EDM; DAL; CAR; Auston Matthews over 1.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Evan Bouchard over 1.5 shots on goal | +184 | 24% | +320 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Where we differ from the market
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.
| Game | League | Our side | Verdexed | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at CAR | NHL | CAR | 68% | 78% | -10 |
| VAN at EDM | NHL | EDM | 68% | 73% | -5 |
| SJS at DAL | NHL | DAL | 68% | 72% | -4 |
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| SA at POR | NBA | POR without Morant, Sharpe, Krejci; SA without Harris | 5.5 pts toward SA |
| BKN at ATL | NBA | ATL without Johnson, Landale, Gueye; Newell day-to-day; BKN without Demin; Clowney, Sharpe day-to-day | 4.5 pts against ATL |
| WSH at OKC | NBA | OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Wallace; Williams day-to-day; WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic; Davis day-to-day | 3.1 pts against OKC |
| NY at CLE | NBA | CLE without Allen, Tyson; Merrill day-to-day; NY without Hart | 3.0 pts toward NY |
| UTA at OTT | NHL | Goalies (OTT: Ersson in for Ullmark, hurt | 2.0 pts toward UTA |
| CHI at CAR | NHL | CAR without Staal; CHI without Kane, Byram | 1.1 pts toward CAR |
| TBL at MIN | NHL | MIN without Spurgeon, Faber, Foligno; Ek GTD; TBL without Gourde | 1.1 pts toward TBL |
| NJD at NYI | NHL | NYI without Barzal, Maccelli, Ritchie; Pulock GTD; NJD without Casey | 0.9 pts toward NJD |
| UTA at OTT | NHL | OTT without Greig, Eklund, Burakovsky; Kleven GTD; UTA without Marino, Lamoureux; Yamamoto GTD | 0.8 pts toward UTA |
| DET at COL | NHL | COL without Manson, L'Heureux; DET without Larkin, Kasper, Edvinsson | 0.8 pts toward COL |
| HOU at PHX | NBA | PHX without Williams; Goodwin, Fleming day-to-day; HOU without Adams, Capela | 0.7 pts toward HOU |
| DEN at IND | NBA | IND without Sheppard, McConnell, Furphy; Oubre day-to-day; DEN without Strawther; DeRozan day-to-day | 0.6 pts toward DEN |
| FLA at WSH | NHL | WSH without Sandin, Desharnais; FLA without Marchand, Barkov; Lundell GTD | 0.6 pts toward WSH |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | NBA | 2 time zones crossed | DEN at IND | DEN 67% (our pick) |
| CLE | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | NY at CLE | NY 61% (our pick is the other side) |
| ATL | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | BKN at ATL | ATL 71% (our pick) |
| SA | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | SA at POR | SA 66% (our pick) |
| POR | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | SA at POR | SA 66% (our pick is the other side) |
| WSH | NBA | second of a back to back | WSH at OKC | OKC 81% (our pick is the other side) |
| OKC | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | WSH at OKC | OKC 81% (our pick) |
| CHI | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | CHI at CAR | CAR 68% (our pick is the other side) |
| EDM | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | VAN at EDM | EDM 68% (our pick) |
| TBL | NHL | 2.1K km since the last game | TBL at MIN | TBL 56% (our pick) |
| MIN | NHL | second of a back to back | TBL at MIN | TBL 56% (our pick is the other side) |
| UTA | NHL | road game 5 | UTA at OTT | UTA 51% (our pick) |
| NYR | NHL | 3.9K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | NYR at SEA | NYR 54% (our pick) |
| DET | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, 2 time zones crossed | DET at COL | COL 66% (our pick is the other side) |
| COL | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | DET at COL | COL 66% (our pick) |
| SJS | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | SJS at DAL | DAL 68% (our pick is the other side) |
| STL | NHL | road game 4 | STL at NSH | NSH 50.2% (our pick is the other side) |
| PIT | NHL | 3.4K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | PIT at LAK | LAK 54% (our pick is the other side) |
The NFL card for Sunday, November 8 is already posted: SF 78% (-485), SEA 77% (-470), KC 75% (-470), HOU 73% (-245), LAR 70% (-230), DET 70% (-305), NYG 64% (-162).
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 6)
NBA: 7-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA at SAC | SA | 88% | -1340 | Hit |
| BOS at CHA | BOS | 75% | -424 | Hit |
| WSH at ATL | ATL | 73% | -309 | Hit |
| UTAH at DAL | DAL | 69% | -257 | Hit |
| OKC at MEM | OKC | 63% | -180 | Hit |
| POR at LAL | LAL | 61% | -154 | Hit |
| TOR at MIL | TOR | 61% | -192 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 32.5 points | 67% | 30 | Miss |
| Luka Doncic | Over 32.5 points | 68% | 53 | Hit |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 32.5 points | 67% | 28 | Miss |
| Joel Embiid | Over 23.5 points | 69% | 6 | Miss |
| LaMelo Ball | Over 23.5 points | 69% | 22 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+853) hit; the props parlay (+594) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+443) missed.
NHL: 2-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS at MIN | MIN | 68% | -285 | Hit |
| CBJ at BUF | BUF | 60% | -170 | Hit |
| ANA at CGY | CGY | 56% | -148 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 86% | 4 | Hit |
| Tage Thompson | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 80% | 3 | Hit |
| Leo Carlsson | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 78% | 1 | Miss |
| Quinn Hughes | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 80% | 2 | Hit |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 86% | 3 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+260) missed; the props parlay (+168) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+501) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 16 since Oct 1 | 30-16 | -3.39 u | -7.4% | 31-16 (66%) | 0-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 17 since Oct 20 | 67-19 | +4.94 u | +5.7% | 41-42 (49%) | 5-12 |
| NHL | 38 since Sep 30 | 100-53 | +1.76 u | +1.1% | 118-65 (64%) | 6-32 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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