Best Bets for Monday, November 9: DET 79%, GS 75% and 9 More Picks Across the NFL, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
11 picks to win on the Model Cards for Monday, November 9, across the NFL, NBA and NHL, plus 12 props. The firmest call is Detroit Pistons at 79% (-490). Yesterday's cards: NFL 7-0 with the parlay hitting, NBA 5-1, NHL 3-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at DET | Lock | DET | 79% | -490 | 80% | 0 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +3.9, head to head +3.5 |
| NO at GS | Lock | GS | 75% | -382 | 76% | -2 | NBA | venue +5.0, head to head +4.4 |
| SA at PHX | Lock | SA | 74% | -359 | 75% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +8.4, net rating +3.7 |
| DEN at HOU | Lock | HOU | 73% | -344 | 74% | -1 | NBA | injuries (HOU without Tshiebwe, Adams, Capela; DEN without Strawther; DeRozan, Gordon questionable, Jokic, Murray day-to-day) +7.7, net rating, last 10 +4.1 |
| CLE at CHA | Lock | CLE | 72% | -337 | 74% | -2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +8.7, venue +7.0 |
| BUF at MIN | Play | BUF | 61% | -185 | 62% | -1 | NFL | EPA per play +12.3, offense +7.0 |
| MEM at TOR | Play | TOR | 59% | -148 | 57% | +2 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 9 games in) +8.0, net rating +4.7 |
| NYR at EDM | Play | EDM | 59% | -162 | 59% | 0 | NHL | goal margin +4.0, venue +2.4 |
| IND at DAL | Play | DAL | 59% | -161 | 59% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +5.8, streak +2.3 |
| NYI at SJS | Lean | NYI | 56% | -142 | 56% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +6.4, goal margin +4.3 |
| PHI at VAN | Lean | PHI | 55% | -135 | 55% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +6.3, venue +3.5 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Detroit Pistons over Washington Wizards, 79%, -490. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+3.9 points), head to head (+3.5 points), net rating (+3.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 10 games in) (-6.5 points). The line DET -10.5, total 217.5. WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic. DET out: Isaiah Joe, Jalen Duren. DET is on the second of a back to back.
Golden State Warriors over New Orleans Pelicans, 75%, -382. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+5.0 points), head to head (+4.4 points), net rating (+3.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (-4.7 points). The line GS -9.5, total 232.5. NO out: Yves Missi. NO is on the second of a back to back. GS out: Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, Will Richard.
San Antonio Spurs over Phoenix Suns, 74%, -359. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+8.4 points), net rating (+3.7 points), streak (+2.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 10 games in) (-5.4 points). The line SA -8.5, total 227.5. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris. PHX out: Jordan Goodwin, Mark Williams.
Houston Rockets over Denver Nuggets, 73%, -344. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (HOU without Tshiebwe, Adams, Capela; DEN without Strawther; DeRozan, Gordon questionable, Jokic, Murray day-to-day) (+7.7 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.1 points), pace (+2.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 8 games in) (-4.3 points). The line HOU -9.5, total 219.5. DEN out: Julian Strawther. HOU out: Clint Capela, Oscar Tshiebwe, Steven Adams.
Cleveland Cavaliers over Charlotte Hornets, 72%, -337. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+8.7 points), venue (+7.0 points), head to head (+6.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (-8.2 points). The line CLE -8.5, total 214.5. CLE out: Jaylon Tyson, Sam Merrill. CHA out: Brandon Miller, Dennis Schroder, Grant Williams, Kon Knueppel.
Buffalo Bills over Minnesota Vikings, 61%, -185. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+12.3 points), offense (+7.0 points), defense (+2.8 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-4.7 points). The line BUF -3.0, total 44.5. BUF starter: Josh Allen. BUF out: Joshua Palmer, Tyrell Shavers, Jordan Hancock. MIN starter: Carson Wentz. MIN out: Kyler Murray, Demond Claiborne, Jauan Jennings. Crew: Carl Cheffers has been tough on MIN (+1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 2-2 in 4 games).
Toronto Raptors over Memphis Grizzlies, 59%, -148. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 9 games in) (+8.0 points), net rating (+4.7 points), streak (+2.8 points). The case against is injuries (TOR without Leonard; Barnes, Quickley day-to-day; MEM without Stewart, Pippen) (-3.7 points). The line TOR -3.5, total 229.5. MEM out: Isaiah Stewart, Richie Saunders, Scotty Pippen Jr. TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle.
Edmonton Oilers over New York Rangers, 59%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+4.0 points), venue (+2.4 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.0 points). The case against is penalty kill (-1.6 points). The line EDM -1.5, total 6.5. NYR starter: Dylan Garand (projected). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Alberts Smits, Sean Durzi, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. EDM starter: Devon Levi (projected). EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula, Isaac Howard.
Dallas Mavericks over Indiana Pacers, 59%, -161. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.8 points), streak (+2.3 points), head to head (+1.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (-11.5 points). The line DAL -3.5, total 227.5. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, Tyrese Haliburton. DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic. DAL is on the second of a back to back.
New York Islanders over San Jose Sharks, 56%, -142. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.4 points), goal margin (+4.3 points), venue (+4.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 19 and 16 games in) (-4.8 points). The line NYI -1.5, total 6.5. NYI starter: Ilya Sorokin (projected). NYI out: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Ryan Pulock, Matias Maccelli. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected).
Philadelphia Flyers over Vancouver Canucks, 55%, -135. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+6.3 points), venue (+3.5 points), expected goals (+2.3 points). The case against is back to back (-7.4 points). The line PHI -1.5, total 6.5. PHI starter: Joseph Woll (likely). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin. PHI is on the second of a back to back. VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | NYR at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 92% | NHL |
| Matthew Schaefer | Lock | NYI | NYI at SJS | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.7 | 88% | NHL |
| Leon Draisaitl | Play | EDM | NYR at EDM | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 75% | NHL |
| Macklin Celebrini | Play | SJS | NYI at SJS | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.5 | 75% | NHL |
| Brock Boeser | Play | VAN | PHI at VAN | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2 | 70% | NHL |
| Scottie Barnes | Play | TOR | MEM at TOR | Over 23.5 points | 28.1 | 70% | NBA |
| Alperen Sengun | Lean | HOU | DEN at HOU | Over 19.5 points | 23.3 | 70% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | SA at PHX | Over 29.5 points | 34.9 | 69% | NBA |
| Stephen Curry | Lean | GS | NO at GS | Over 34.5 points | 40.2 | 67% | NBA |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Lean | MIN | BUF at MIN | Over 64.5 rushing yards | 83.6 | 66% | NFL |
| Josh Allen | Lean | BUF | BUF at MIN | Over 151.5 passing yards | 174.4 | 65% | NFL |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | LAL at ATL | Over 31.5 points | 36.2 | 65% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Aaron Jones Sr. over 64.5 rushing yards; Josh Allen over 151.5 passing yards | +133 (fair) | 43% | +133 |
| NBA | Games | DET; GS; SA; HOU; CLE; TOR; DAL | +783 | 8% | +1145 |
| NBA | Props | Scottie Barnes over 23.5 points; Alperen Sengun over 19.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 29.5 points; Stephen Curry over 34.5 points; Luka Doncic over 31.5 points | +580 (fair) | 15% | +580 |
| NBA | Best of both | DET; GS; SA; Scottie Barnes over 23.5 points; Alperen Sengun over 19.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 29.5 points | +477 | 15% | +580 |
| NHL | Games | EDM; NYI; PHI | +380 | 18% | +448 |
| NHL | Props | Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Matthew Schaefer over 1.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal; Macklin Celebrini over 2.5 shots on goal; Brock Boeser over 1.5 shots on goal | +211 (fair) | 32% | +211 |
| NHL | Best of both | EDM; NYI; PHI; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Matthew Schaefer over 1.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal | +690 | 11% | +802 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN at HOU | NBA | HOU without Tshiebwe, Adams, Capela; DEN without Strawther; DeRozan, Gordon questionable, Jokic, Murray day-to-day | 7.7 pts toward HOU |
| CLE at CHA | NBA | CHA without Miller, Knueppel, Schroder; Diabate day-to-day; CLE without Merrill, Tyson; Allen day-to-day | 5.6 pts toward CLE |
| NO at GS | NBA | GS without Butler, Porzingis, Moody; Santos day-to-day; NO without Missi | 4.2 pts against GS |
| MEM at TOR | NBA | TOR without Leonard; Barnes, Quickley day-to-day; MEM without Stewart, Pippen | 3.7 pts against TOR |
| LAL at ATL | NBA | ATL without Landale, Newell, Gueye; LAL: Grimes questionable, Doncic day-to-day | 1.3 pts toward ATL |
| IND at DAL | NBA | DAL without Lively; IND without Sheppard, Furphy; McConnell day-to-day | 0.9 pts toward DAL |
| WSH at DET | NBA | DET without Duren, Joe; WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic; Davis day-to-day | 0.6 pts against DET |
| NYI at SJS | NHL | SJS without Chernyshov, Wennberg; NYI without Barzal, Maccelli, Ritchie; Pulock GTD | 0.4 pts against NYI |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | NO at GS | GS 74% (our pick is the other side) |
| WSH | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | WSH at DET | DET 79% (our pick is the other side) |
| DET | NBA | second of a back to back | WSH at DET | DET 79% (our pick) |
| CLE | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CLE at CHA | CLE 72% (our pick) |
| SA | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | SA at PHX | SA 74% (our pick) |
| PHX | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | SA at PHX | SA 74% (our pick is the other side) |
| DAL | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | IND at DAL | DAL 59% (our pick) |
| LAL | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | LAL at ATL | ATL 53% (our pick is the other side) |
| ATL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | LAL at ATL | ATL 53% (our pick) |
| NYI | NHL | 4.1K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | NYI at SJS | NYI 56% (our pick) |
| SJS | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, 2.3K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | NYI at SJS | NYI 56% (our pick is the other side) |
| PHI | NHL | second of a back to back | PHI at VAN | PHI 55% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 8)
NFL: 7-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ at KC | KC | 76% | -500 | Hit |
| LAR at WSH | LAR | 71% | -225 | Hit |
| DET at MIA | DET | 71% | -305 | Hit |
| NYG at PHI | NYG | 64% | -155 | Hit |
| LV at SF | SF | 77% | -440 | Hit |
| ARI at SEA | SEA | 76% | -455 | Hit |
| HOU at LAC | HOU | 73% | -225 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | Over 340.5 passing yards | 65% | 271 | Miss |
| Kenneth Walker III | Over 104.5 rushing yards | 65% | 102 | Miss |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Over 77.5 rushing yards | 65% | 74 | Miss |
| Christian McCaffrey | Over 61.5 rushing yards | 65% | 68 | Hit |
| Brock Purdy | Over 272.5 passing yards | 65% | 232 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+719) hit; the props parlay (+747) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+548) missed.
NBA: 5-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at CHI | PHI | 77% | -470 | Hit |
| LAL at DET | DET | 70% | -277 | Miss |
| BOS at MIL | BOS | 82% | -740 | Hit |
| UTAH at MIN | MIN | 82% | -700 | Hit |
| MIA at SAC | MIA | 77% | -518 | Hit |
| BKN at DAL | DAL | 72% | -305 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | Over 24.5 points | 69% | 29 | Hit |
| LeBron James | Over 17.5 points | 66% | 22 | Hit |
| Cade Cunningham | Over 24.5 points | 67% | 14 | Miss |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Over 25.5 points | 66% | 29 | Hit |
| LaMelo Ball | Over 25.5 points | 69% | 24 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+239) missed; the props parlay (+617) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+392) missed.
NHL: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL at WPG | TBL | 57% | -162 | Miss |
| FLA at BOS | BOS | 57% | -148 | Hit |
| NJD at TOR | NJD | 59% | -162 | Hit |
| PIT at ANA | ANA | 53% | -120 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 85% | 2 | Miss |
| Kyle Connor | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 68% | 4 | Hit |
| Cutter Gauthier | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 66% | 6 | Hit |
| Jack Hughes | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 79% | 3 | Hit |
| Leo Carlsson | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 79% | 3 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+704) missed; the props parlay (+318) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+724) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 17 since Oct 1 | 37-16 | -0.88 u | -1.7% | 32-20 (62%) | 1-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 19 since Oct 20 | 78-21 | +6.14 u | +6.2% | 46-47 (50%) | 5-14 |
| NHL | 40 since Sep 30 | 107-54 | +4.17 u | +2.6% | 126-67 (65%) | 7-33 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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