Best Bets for Wednesday, November 11: SA 87%, LAL 83% and 9 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
11 picks to win on the Model Cards for Wednesday, November 11, across the NBA and NHL, plus 10 props. The firmest call is San Antonio Spurs at 87% (-1200). Yesterday's cards: NBA 4-0 with the parlay hitting, NHL 2-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA at CHI | Lock | SA | 87% | -1200 | 89% | -2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.1, net rating +2.6 |
| LAL at MIL | Lock | LAL | 83% | -750 | 85% | -2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.2, net rating +3.2 |
| GS at HOU | Lock | HOU | 69% | -249 | 69% | 0 | NBA | injuries (HOU without Adams, Capela; GS without Butler, Williams, Porzingis) +5.5, preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) +3.2 |
| BOS at TOR | Lock | BOS | 67% | -243 | 68% | -1 | NBA | head to head +9.2, injuries (TOR without Barnes, Leonard; Quickley, Murray-Boyles day-to-day) +8.3 |
| PHI at EDM | Play | EDM | 64% | -205 | 64% | -1 | NHL | goal margin +7.5, expected goals +4.5 |
| CLE at NY | Play | NY | 62% | -180 | 62% | +1 | NBA | head to head +8.5, venue +4.3 |
| DEN at MEM | Play | DEN | 60% | -167 | 60% | 0 | NBA | preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 9 games in) +7.8, head to head +6.4 |
| ORL at UTAH | Play | ORL | 60% | -155 | 58% | +1 | NBA | venue +6.0, net rating +5.1 |
| NSH at ANA | Lean | ANA | 57% | -142 | 56% | 0 | NHL | back to back +7.5, rest +6.4 |
| NYR at CGY | Lean | NYR | 55% | -142 | 56% | -1 | NHL | expected goals +4.4, goal margin +4.3 |
| PIT at SJS | Lean | PIT | 55% | -135 | 55% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +9.7, venue +4.1 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
San Antonio Spurs over Chicago Bulls, 87%, -1200. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.1 points), net rating (+2.6 points), pace (+2.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 11 games in) (-4.3 points). The line SA -15.5, total 238.5. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.
Los Angeles Lakers over Milwaukee Bucks, 83%, -750. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.2 points), net rating (+3.2 points), rest (+2.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 12 games in) (-8.1 points). The line LAL -14.5, total 228.5. MIL is on the second of a back to back.
Houston Rockets over Golden State Warriors, 69%, -249. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (HOU without Adams, Capela; GS without Butler, Williams, Porzingis) (+5.5 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) (+3.2 points), travel (+1.5 points). The case against is streak (-3.0 points). The line HOU -6.5, total 220.5. GS out: Brandon Williams, Gary Payton II, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody. HOU out: Clint Capela, Steven Adams.
Boston Celtics over Toronto Raptors, 67%, -243. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+9.2 points), injuries (TOR without Barnes, Leonard; Quickley, Murray-Boyles day-to-day) (+8.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+6.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 11 games in) (-9.5 points). The line BOS -5.5, total 215.5. BOS is on the second of a back to back. TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle, Scottie Barnes.
Edmonton Oilers over Philadelphia Flyers, 64%, -205. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+7.5 points), expected goals (+4.5 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.9 points). The case against is goalies (-1.4 points). The line EDM -1.5, total 6.5. PHI starter: Dan Vladar (projected). PHI out: Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Grebenkin. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry (projected). EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula, Isaac Howard.
New York Knicks over Cleveland Cavaliers, 62%, -180. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+8.5 points), venue (+4.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.0 points). The case against is rest (-3.6 points). The line NY -4.5, total 222.5. CLE out: Jaylon Tyson, Sam Merrill. NY out: Josh Hart. NY is on the second of a back to back.
Denver Nuggets over Memphis Grizzlies, 60%, -167. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 9 games in) (+7.8 points), head to head (+6.4 points), travel (+2.6 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-5.0 points). The line DEN -3.5, total 230.5. DEN out: Julian Strawther. MEM out: Quinten Post, Richie Saunders, Scotty Pippen Jr.
Orlando Magic over Utah Jazz, 60%, -155. Play on the NBA card. What drives it: venue (+6.0 points), net rating (+5.1 points), injuries (UTAH without George, Jackson, Nurkic; Markkanen day-to-day; ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; Silva questionable) (+4.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 10 games in) (-10.0 points). The line ORL -2.5, total 214.5. ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero. ORL is on the second of a back to back. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic. UTAH is on the second of a back to back.
Anaheim Ducks over Nashville Predators, 57%, -142. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: back to back (+7.5 points), rest (+6.4 points), head to head (+1.6 points). The case against is venue (-3.8 points). The line ANA -1.5, total 6.5. NSH starter: Justus Annunen (projected). NSH is on the second of a back to back. ANA starter: Laurent Brossoit (projected). ANA out: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore, A.J. Greer, Troy Terry. Crew: Jon McIsaac has been tough on ANA (2-6-0 in 8 games with this referee, a win rate 16 points below its norm under others).
New York Rangers over Calgary Flames, 55%, -142. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (+4.4 points), goal margin (+4.3 points), expected goals (5v5) (+1.2 points). The case against is rest (-2.2 points). The line NYR -1.5, total 5.5. NYR starter: Joonas Korpisalo (projected). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Alberts Smits, Sean Durzi, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. CGY starter: Dustin Wolf (likely). CGY out: Connor Zary, Kevin Bahl, Jonathan Huberdeau, Samuel Honzek.
Pittsburgh Penguins over San Jose Sharks, 55%, -135. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+9.7 points), venue (+4.1 points), expected goals (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 20 and 18 games in) (-3.5 points). The line PIT -1.5, total 6.5. PIT starter: Sergei Murashov (projected). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Bryan Rust, Elmer Soderblom. SJS starter: Yaroslav Askarov (projected).
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Lock | EDM | PHI at EDM | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3 | 93% | NHL |
| Cutter Gauthier | Lock | ANA | NSH at ANA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 4 | 84% | NHL |
| Logan Cooley | Lock | UTA | UTA at VGK | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.3 | 82% | NHL |
| Leon Draisaitl | Play | EDM | PHI at EDM | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.7 | 78% | NHL |
| Tage Thompson | Play | BUF | TBL at BUF | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.4 | 72% | NHL |
| Nikola Jokic | Lean | DEN | DEN at MEM | Over 20.5 points | 24.2 | 69% | NBA |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Lean | OKC | OKC at POR | Over 30.5 points | 35.5 | 67% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | SA at CHI | Over 32.5 points | 37.6 | 66% | NBA |
| Luka Doncic | Lean | LAL | LAL at MIL | Over 37.5 points | 43.3 | 66% | NBA |
| Anthony Davis | Lean | WSH | WSH at IND | Over 25.5 points | 29.3 | 65% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | SA; LAL; HOU; BOS; NY; DEN; ORL | +894 | 7% | +1244 |
| NBA | Props | Nikola Jokic over 20.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 32.5 points; Luka Doncic over 37.5 points; Anthony Davis over 25.5 points | +671 (fair) | 13% | +672 |
| NBA | Best of both | SA; LAL; HOU; Nikola Jokic over 20.5 points; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 32.5 points | +469 | 15% | +573 |
| NHL | Games | EDM; ANA; NYR; PIT | +652 | 11% | +801 |
| NHL | Props | Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots on goal; Logan Cooley over 1.5 shots on goal; Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal; Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal | +181 (fair) | 36% | +181 |
| NHL | Best of both | EDM; ANA; NYR; Connor McDavid over 1.5 shots on goal; Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots on goal; Logan Cooley over 1.5 shots on goal | +585 | 13% | +687 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at TOR | NBA | TOR without Barnes, Leonard; Quickley, Murray-Boyles day-to-day | 8.3 pts toward BOS |
| GS at HOU | NBA | HOU without Adams, Capela; GS without Butler, Williams, Porzingis | 5.5 pts toward HOU |
| BKN at NO | NBA | NO without Murphy, Watford, Mathurin; BKN without Demin; Traore day-to-day | 5.4 pts against NO |
| ORL at UTAH | NBA | UTAH without George, Jackson, Nurkic; Markkanen day-to-day; ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; Silva questionable | 4.3 pts toward ORL |
| DEN at MEM | NBA | MEM without Pippen, Post; Stewart day-to-day; DEN without Strawther | 2.3 pts toward DEN |
| CLE at NY | NBA | NY without Hart; CLE without Merrill, Tyson | 1.7 pts toward NY |
| LAL at MIL | NBA | MIL: Herro questionable; LAL: Grimes day-to-day | 1.4 pts toward LAL |
| TBL at BUF | NHL | BUF without Grzelcyk, Danforth; Helenius GTD, Crevier day-to-day; TBL without Point | 0.8 pts against TBL |
| WSH at IND | NBA | IND without Sheppard, Furphy; McConnell day-to-day; WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic | 0.5 pts toward IND |
| NSH at ANA | NHL | ANA without Greer, Poehling, Moore; Terry GTD; NSH: Marchessault GTD | 0.5 pts against ANA |
| PIT at SJS | NHL | SJS without Chernyshov; PIT without Rust, Soderblom, Riemsdyk | 0.5 pts against PIT |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | NBA | 2.6K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | GS at HOU | HOU 69% (our pick is the other side) |
| ORL | NBA | second of a back to back, road game 4 | ORL at UTAH | ORL 60% (our pick) |
| UTAH | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | ORL at UTAH | ORL 60% (our pick is the other side) |
| NO | NBA | 4 games in 7 days, 3.1K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | BKN at NO | NO 59% (our pick) |
| WSH | NBA | 4 games in 7 days, road game 4 | WSH at IND | IND 58% (our pick is the other side) |
| CLE | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CLE at NY | NY 62% (our pick is the other side) |
| NY | NBA | second of a back to back | CLE at NY | NY 62% (our pick) |
| SA | NBA | 4 games in 7 days, 2.3K km since the last game, road game 4 | SA at CHI | SA 87% (our pick) |
| BOS | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days, road game 4 | BOS at TOR | BOS 67% (our pick) |
| LAL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | LAL at MIL | LAL 83% (our pick) |
| MIL | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | LAL at MIL | LAL 83% (our pick is the other side) |
| OKC | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | OKC at POR | OKC 54% (our pick) |
| POR | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | OKC at POR | OKC 54% (our pick is the other side) |
| UTA | NHL | 3.4K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed, road game 6 | UTA at VGK | VGK 53% (our pick is the other side) |
| VGK | NHL | 3.2K km since the last game, 3 time zones crossed | UTA at VGK | VGK 53% (our pick) |
| NSH | NHL | second of a back to back | NSH at ANA | ANA 57% (our pick is the other side) |
| SJS | NHL | 4 games in 7 days | PIT at SJS | PIT 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| PHI | NHL | road game 4 | PHI at EDM | EDM 64% (our pick is the other side) |
The NFL card for Thursday, November 12 is already posted: NYG 56% (-142).
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 10)
NBA: 4-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at NY | NY | 87% | -1040 | Hit |
| MIA at UTAH | MIA | 78% | -438 | Hit |
| ORL at SAC | ORL | 66% | -229 | Hit |
| LAC at PHX | PHX | 61% | -173 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | Over 24.5 points | 69% | 33 | Hit |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Over 24.5 points | 67% | 30 | Hit |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 32.5 points | 66% | 26 | Miss |
| Jalen Brunson | Over 27.5 points | 67% | 23 | Miss |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Over 18.5 points | 68% | 21 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+205) hit; the props parlay (+621) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+518) hit.
NHL: 2-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at TOR | COL | 61% | -175 | Hit |
| NJD at WPG | NJD | 56% | -142 | Miss |
| DET at STL | STL | 56% | -142 | Hit |
| NSH at LAK | LAK | 55% | -130 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 84% | 3 | Hit |
| Cale Makar | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 84% | 1 | Miss |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 3 | Hit |
| Brady Tkachuk | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 75% | 2 | Miss |
| Cole Caufield | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 75% | 2 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+707) missed; the props parlay (+174) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+595) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 18 since Oct 1 | 38-16 | -0.37 u | -0.7% | 33-21 (61%) | 1-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 21 since Oct 20 | 87-22 | +8.27 u | +7.6% | 50-53 (48%) | 6-15 |
| NHL | 42 since Sep 30 | 111-57 | +3.80 u | +2.3% | 132-71 (65%) | 7-35 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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