Best Bets for Friday, November 13: HOU 88%, SA 84% and 7 More Picks Across the NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
9 picks to win on the Model Cards for Friday, November 13, across the NBA and NHL, plus 9 props. The firmest call is Houston Rockets at 88% (-1340). Yesterday's cards: NFL 0-1, NBA 4-0 with the parlay hitting, NHL 4-2. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH at HOU | Lock | HOU | 88% | -1340 | 89% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +5.1, injuries (HOU without Smart, Adams, Capela; UTAH without Markkanen, Jackson, Nurkic) +4.7 |
| GS at SA | Lock | SA | 84% | -700 | 84% | 0 | NBA | injuries (SA without Harris; Fox, Vassell day-to-day; GS without Curry, Butler, Porzingis; Bassey day-to-day) +6.5, preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 12 games in) +3.0 |
| POR at SAC | Lock | POR | 77% | -468 | 79% | -3 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +7.0, head to head +6.5 |
| MIL at ORL | Lock | ORL | 74% | -359 | 75% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +5.4, net rating +3.8 |
| NY at IND | Lock | NY | 72% | -324 | 73% | -1 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +5.5, net rating +4.0 |
| ATL at CHI | Lock | ATL | 71% | -277 | 71% | 0 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +6.6, net rating +4.6 |
| OKC at LAC | Lock | OKC | 70% | -269 | 70% | 0 | NBA | head to head +10.3, net rating, last 10 +4.9 |
| NYR at VAN | Lock | NYR | 66% | -225 | 66% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.9, goal margin +6.6 |
| NSH at VGK | Play | VGK | 60% | -162 | 59% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +7.4, expected goals +2.7 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Houston Rockets over Utah Jazz, 88%, -1340. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.1 points), injuries (HOU without Smart, Adams, Capela; UTAH without Markkanen, Jackson, Nurkic) (+4.7 points), head to head (+2.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 12 games in) (-6.9 points). The line HOU -15.5, total 220.5. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, Lauri Markkanen, Trey Alexander. HOU out: Clint Capela, Marcus Smart, Steven Adams.
San Antonio Spurs over Golden State Warriors, 84%, -700. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (SA without Harris; Fox, Vassell day-to-day; GS without Curry, Butler, Porzingis; Bassey day-to-day) (+6.5 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 12 games in) (+3.0 points), streak (+2.1 points). The case against is venue (-3.1 points). The line SA -11.5, total 217.5. GS out: Brandon Williams, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.
Portland Trail Blazers over Sacramento Kings, 77%, -468. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.0 points), head to head (+6.5 points), venue (+4.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) (-6.5 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have POR as the more likely winner. The line POR -9.5, total 228.5. POR out: Chris Youngblood, Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe, Vit Krejci. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Maxime Raynaud.
Orlando Magic over Milwaukee Bucks, 74%, -359. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.4 points), net rating (+3.8 points), streak (+2.9 points). The case against is injuries (ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; Cain questionable, Silva day-to-day) (-5.2 points). The line ORL -8.5, total 224.5. ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero.
New York Knicks over Indiana Pacers, 72%, -324. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.5 points), net rating (+4.0 points), head to head (+3.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (-12.1 points). The line NY -8.5, total 219.5. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, Tyrese Haliburton.
Atlanta Hawks over Chicago Bulls, 71%, -277. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+6.6 points), net rating (+4.6 points), injuries (CHI without Wilson; Powell day-to-day; ATL without Newell, Gueye; Flemings day-to-day) (+4.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 12 games in) (-11.6 points). The line ATL -6.5, total 246.5. ATL out: Asa Newell, Henri Veesaar, Keshon Gilbert, Mouhamed Gueye. CHI out: Caleb Wilson, Tobe Awaka.
Oklahoma City Thunder over LA Clippers, 70%, -269. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+10.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.9 points), net rating (+4.3 points). The case against is venue (-4.2 points). The line OKC -7.5, total 221.5. OKC out: Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Thomas Sorber. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Yanic Konan Niederhauser.
New York Rangers over Vancouver Canucks, 66%, -225. Lock on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.9 points), goal margin (+6.6 points), expected goals (+6.3 points). The case against is recent form (-3.1 points). The line NYR -1.5, total 6.5. NYR starter: Dylan Garand (projected). NYR out: Igor Shesterkin, Alberts Smits, Sean Durzi, Adam Sykora, Joe Veleno. VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern.
Vegas Golden Knights over Nashville Predators, 60%, -162. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+7.4 points), expected goals (+2.7 points), venue (+2.2 points). The case against is penalty kill (-1.5 points). The line VGK -1.5, total 6.5. NSH starter: Juuse Saros (projected). VGK starter: Adin Hill (projected). VGK out: Noah Hanifin.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox | Lock | NYR | NYR at VAN | Over 0.5 shots on goal | 1.7 | 99% | NHL |
| Steven Stamkos | Lock | NSH | NSH at VGK | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.7 | 89% | NHL |
| Roman Josi | Play | NSH | NSH at VGK | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.3 | 79% | NHL |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | Play | NYR | NYR at VAN | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.3 | 70% | NHL |
| Franz Wagner | Lean | ORL | MIL at ORL | Over 24.5 points | 29 | 69% | NBA |
| Deni Avdija | Lean | POR | POR at SAC | Over 23.5 points | 27.8 | 69% | NBA |
| Victor Wembanyama | Lean | SA | GS at SA | Over 33.5 points | 39 | 67% | NBA |
| Jalen Johnson | Lean | ATL | ATL at CHI | Over 20.5 points | 23.8 | 66% | NBA |
| Alperen Sengun | Lean | HOU | UTAH at HOU | Over 19.5 points | 22.4 | 65% | NBA |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Games | HOU; SA; POR; ORL; NY; ATL; OKC | +366 | 15% | +571 |
| NBA | Props | Franz Wagner over 24.5 points; Deni Avdija over 23.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 33.5 points; Jalen Johnson over 20.5 points; Alperen Sengun over 19.5 points | +630 (fair) | 14% | +630 |
| NBA | Best of both | HOU; SA; POR; Franz Wagner over 24.5 points; Deni Avdija over 23.5 points; Victor Wembanyama over 33.5 points | +371 | 18% | +461 |
| NHL | Games | NYR; VGK | +134 | 39% | +154 |
| NHL | Props | Adam Fox over 0.5 shots on goal; Steven Stamkos over 1.5 shots on goal; Roman Josi over 1.5 shots on goal; Pavel Dorofeyev over 2.5 shots on goal | +104 (fair) | 49% | +104 |
| NHL | Best of both | NYR; VGK; Adam Fox over 0.5 shots on goal; Steven Stamkos over 1.5 shots on goal; Roman Josi over 1.5 shots on goal | +233 | 28% | +262 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS at SA | NBA | SA without Harris; Fox, Vassell day-to-day; GS without Curry, Butler, Porzingis; Bassey day-to-day | 6.5 pts toward SA |
| MIL at ORL | NBA | ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; Cain questionable, Silva day-to-day | 5.2 pts against ORL |
| UTAH at HOU | NBA | HOU without Smart, Adams, Capela; UTAH without Markkanen, Jackson, Nurkic | 4.7 pts toward HOU |
| ATL at CHI | NBA | CHI without Wilson; Powell day-to-day; ATL without Newell, Gueye; Flemings day-to-day | 4.5 pts toward ATL |
| POR at SAC | NBA | SAC without Raynaud; Achiuwa questionable; POR without Morant, Sharpe, Krejci | 2.8 pts against POR |
| OKC at LAC | NBA | LAC without Ingram, Miller, Beal; OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Wallace; Mitchell day-to-day | 2.6 pts against OKC |
| NY at IND | NBA | IND without Sheppard, Furphy; McConnell questionable, Nesmith day-to-day | 1.8 pts toward NY |
| MEM at NO | NBA | NO without Watford, Missi; McGowens, Mathurin doubtful, Murphy day-to-day; MEM without Edey, Pippen, Post | 0.9 pts toward MEM |
| CLE at MIA | NBA | MIA without Thompson; Antetokounmpo, Larsson day-to-day; CLE without Mobley, Merrill | 0.7 pts toward MIA |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CLE at MIA | MIA 54% (our pick is the other side) |
| MIA | NBA | 3.4K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | CLE at MIA | MIA 54% (our pick) |
| SA | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | GS at SA | SA 84% (our pick) |
| MIL | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | MIL at ORL | ORL 74% (our pick is the other side) |
| ORL | NBA | 3.1K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | MIL at ORL | ORL 74% (our pick) |
| POR | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | POR at SAC | POR 77% (our pick) |
| OKC | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | OKC at LAC | OKC 70% (our pick) |
| NO | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | MEM at NO | MEM 55% (our pick is the other side) |
| UTAH | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | UTAH at HOU | HOU 88% (our pick is the other side) |
| NYR | NHL | road game 4 | NYR at VAN | NYR 66% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 12)
NFL: 0-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at NYG | NYG | 55% | -125 | Miss |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | Over 176.5 passing yards | 66% | 249 | Hit |
| Malik Nabers | Over 4.5 receptions | 75% | 5 | Hit |
Tickets: the props parlay (+102) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+264) missed.
NBA: 4-0
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at WSH | DET | 77% | -438 | Hit |
| TOR at PHI | PHI | 68% | -270 | Hit |
| CHA at PHX | PHX | 67% | -229 | Hit |
| DAL at MIN | MIN | 67% | -223 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | Over 21.5 points | 69% | 52 | Hit |
| LaMelo Ball | Over 23.5 points | 67% | 22 | Miss |
| Cooper Flagg | Over 22.5 points | 70% | 12 | Miss |
| Anthony Davis | Over 23.5 points | 68% | 30 | Hit |
| Jaylen Brown | Over 20.5 points | 69% | 18 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+250) hit; the props parlay (+564) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+635) missed.
NHL: 4-2
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at SEA | CAR | 68% | -305 | Hit |
| WPG at DAL | DAL | 61% | -175 | Miss |
| DET at FLA | FLA | 60% | -170 | Hit |
| MIN at TOR | MIN | 60% | -170 | Hit |
| BUF at CHI | BUF | 59% | -155 | Miss |
| WSH at NJD | NJD | 58% | -162 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 79% | 3 | Hit |
| Nikita Kucherov | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 71% | 2 | Miss |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 86% | 5 | Hit |
| Cale Makar | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 78% | 2 | Hit |
| Jason Robertson | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 2 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+1300) missed; the props parlay (+187) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+425) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 19 since Oct 1 | 38-17 | -1.37 u | -2.5% | 35-21 (62%) | 1-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 23 since Oct 20 | 97-23 | +11.01 u | +9.2% | 54-59 (48%) | 7-16 |
| NHL | 44 since Sep 30 | 118-60 | +4.82 u | +2.7% | 140-72 (66%) | 7-37 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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