Best Bets for Thursday, November 12: DET 77%, PHI 72% and 8 More Picks Across the NFL, NBA and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
10 picks to win on the Model Cards for Thursday, November 12, across the NFL, NBA and NHL, plus 12 props. The firmest call is Detroit Pistons at 77% (-467). Yesterday's cards: NBA 6-1, NHL 3-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at WSH | Lock | DET | 77% | -467 | 79% | -2 | NBA | net rating, last 10 +6.9, venue +6.0 |
| TOR at PHI | Lock | PHI | 72% | -344 | 74% | -2 | NBA | injuries (PHI without Barlow, Bona, Hukporti; TOR without Barnes, Leonard, Jackson-Davis) +5.1, rest +3.1 |
| CHA at PHX | Lock | PHX | 68% | -244 | 68% | 0 | NBA | injuries (PHX without Williams; CHA without Miller, Knueppel, Schroder; Diabate probable) +9.3, venue +5.7 |
| CAR at SEA | Lock | CAR | 68% | -305 | 72% | -4 | NHL | - |
| DAL at MIN | Lock | MIN | 67% | -223 | 66% | 0 | NBA | head to head +8.9, venue +5.2 |
| WPG at DAL | Play | DAL | 61% | -175 | 61% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +4.7, goal margin +4.5 |
| DET at FLA | Play | FLA | 60% | -170 | 60% | 0 | NHL | goal margin +2.8, venue +2.8 |
| MIN at TOR | Play | MIN | 60% | -170 | 60% | 0 | NHL | goal margin +5.1, expected goals +4.7 |
| BUF at CHI | Play | BUF | 59% | -155 | 58% | 0 | NHL | expected goals (5v5) +11.2, goal margin +5.6 |
| WSH at NYG | Lean | NYG | 56% | -135 | 55% | 0 | NFL | EPA per play +7.2, point margin +6.2 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
Why each pick
Detroit Pistons over Washington Wizards, 77%, -467. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+6.9 points), venue (+6.0 points), head to head (+4.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 10 games in) (-15.2 points). The line DET -10.5, total 220.5. DET out: Isaiah Joe, Jalen Duren. WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic. WSH is on the second of a back to back.
Philadelphia 76ers over Toronto Raptors, 72%, -344. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (PHI without Barlow, Bona, Hukporti; TOR without Barnes, Leonard, Jackson-Davis) (+5.1 points), rest (+3.1 points), back to back (+2.4 points). The case against is head to head (-2.8 points). The line PHI -8.5, total 223.5. TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle, Scottie Barnes. TOR is on the second of a back to back. PHI out: Adem Bona, Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow.
Phoenix Suns over Charlotte Hornets, 68%, -244. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: injuries (PHX without Williams; CHA without Miller, Knueppel, Schroder; Diabate probable) (+9.3 points), venue (+5.7 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.2 points). The case against is travel (-1.9 points). The line PHX -6.5, total 214.5. CHA out: Brandon Miller, Dennis Schroder, Grant Williams, Kon Knueppel. PHX out: Mark Williams.
Carolina Hurricanes over Seattle Kraken, 68%, -305. Lock on the NHL card. The market is 4 points firmer on it than we are; we still have CAR as the more likely winner.
Minnesota Timberwolves over Dallas Mavericks, 67%, -223. Lock on the NBA card. What drives it: head to head (+8.9 points), venue (+5.2 points), net rating (+3.7 points). The case against is injuries (MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; DAL without Lively; Johnson probable) (-5.6 points). The line MIN -5.5, total 225.5. DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic. MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo.
Dallas Stars over Winnipeg Jets, 61%, -175. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+4.7 points), goal margin (+4.5 points), rest (+3.1 points). The case against is recent form (-0.9 points). The line DAL -1.5, total 5.5. WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (likely). WPG out: Vladislav Namestnikov, Elias Salomonsson. DAL starter: Jake Oettinger. DAL out: Matt Duchene, Kyle Capobianco, Luke Krys, Miro Heiskanen.
Florida Panthers over Detroit Red Wings, 60%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+2.8 points), venue (+2.8 points), expected goals (5v5) (+2.2 points). The case against is motivation (-0.8 points). The line FLA -1.5, total 5.5. DET starter: Daniil Tarasov (projected). DET out: Dylan Larkin, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson. FLA starter: Akira Schmid. FLA out: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.
Minnesota Wild over Toronto Maple Leafs, 60%, -170. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: goal margin (+5.1 points), expected goals (+4.7 points), expected goals (5v5) (+3.9 points). The case against is high-danger chances (-1.8 points). The line MIN -1.5, total 6.5. MIN starter: Jesper Wallstedt. MIN out: Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber. TOR starter: Anthony Stolarz. TOR out: Colton Sissons, Max Domi, Marshall Rifai, Nick Blankenburg, Kirill Marchenko.
Buffalo Sabres over Chicago Blackhawks, 59%, -155. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: expected goals (5v5) (+11.2 points), goal margin (+5.6 points), venue (+4.1 points). The case against is back to back (-7.4 points). The line BUF -1.5, total 6.5. BUF starter: Alex Lyon (projected). BUF out: Alex Lyon, Konsta Helenius, Matt Grzelcyk, Justin Danforth. BUF is on the second of a back to back. CHI starter: Spencer Knight (projected). CHI out: Bowen Byram, Patrick Kane.
New York Giants over Washington Commanders, 56%, -135. Lean on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+7.2 points), point margin (+6.2 points), motivation (+3.1 points). The case against is venue (-2.8 points). The line NYG -2.5, total 40.5. WSH starter: Jayden Daniels. WSH out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane, Treylon Burks. NYG starter: J.J. McCarthy. NYG out: Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Colton Hood. Crew: Brad Rogers has been tough on NYG (0-5 in 5 games with this referee, a win rate 21 points below its norm under others).
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | Lock | DAL | WPG at DAL | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 93% | NHL |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Lock | MIN | MIN at TOR | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.5 | 86% | NHL |
| Jack Hughes | Play | NJD | WSH at NJD | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.8 | 79% | NHL |
| Cale Makar | Play | COL | COL at OTT | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.2 | 78% | NHL |
| Malik Nabers | Play | NYG | WSH at NYG | Over 4.5 receptions | 6.3 | 75% | NFL |
| Nikita Kucherov | Play | TBL | TBL at CBJ | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.3 | 71% | NHL |
| Cooper Flagg | Lean | DAL | DAL at MIN | Over 22.5 points | 26.8 | 70% | NBA |
| Cade Cunningham | Lean | DET | DET at WSH | Over 21.5 points | 25.5 | 69% | NBA |
| Jaylen Brown | Lean | PHI | TOR at PHI | Over 20.5 points | 24.1 | 68% | NBA |
| LaMelo Ball | Lean | MIN | DAL at MIN | Over 23.5 points | 27.4 | 67% | NBA |
| Anthony Davis | Lean | WSH | DET at WSH | Over 23.5 points | 27.3 | 67% | NBA |
| Jayden Daniels | Lean | WSH | WSH at NYG | Over 176.5 passing yards | 203.6 | 66% | NFL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Malik Nabers over 4.5 receptions; Jayden Daniels over 176.5 passing yards | +102 (fair) | 49% | +102 |
| NFL | Best of both | NYG; Malik Nabers over 4.5 receptions; Jayden Daniels over 176.5 passing yards | +252 | 28% | +264 |
| NBA | Games | DET; PHI; PHX; MIN | +220 | 26% | +292 |
| NBA | Props | Cooper Flagg over 22.5 points; Cade Cunningham over 21.5 points; Jaylen Brown over 20.5 points; LaMelo Ball over 23.5 points; Anthony Davis over 23.5 points | +586 (fair) | 15% | +586 |
| NBA | Best of both | DET; PHI; PHX; Cooper Flagg over 22.5 points; Cade Cunningham over 21.5 points; Jaylen Brown over 20.5 points | +576 | 13% | +698 |
| NHL | Games | CAR; DAL; FLA; MIN; BUF | +766 | 9% | +1038 |
| NHL | Props | Jason Robertson over 1.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal; Cale Makar over 1.5 shots on goal; Nikita Kucherov over 2.5 shots on goal | +187 (fair) | 35% | +187 |
| NHL | Best of both | CAR; DAL; FLA; Jason Robertson over 1.5 shots on goal; Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 shots on goal; Jack Hughes over 2.5 shots on goal | +425 | 16% | +534 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA at PHX | NBA | PHX without Williams; CHA without Miller, Knueppel, Schroder; Diabate probable | 9.3 pts toward PHX |
| DAL at MIN | NBA | MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; DAL without Lively; Johnson probable | 5.6 pts against MIN |
| TOR at PHI | NBA | PHI without Barlow, Bona, Hukporti; TOR without Barnes, Leonard, Jackson-Davis | 5.1 pts toward PHI |
| WSH at NYG | NFL | NYG without Skattebo, Hood, Tracy; Harrison day-to-day; WSH without Croskey-Merritt, Payne | 2.8 pts against NYG |
| STL at UTA | NHL | UTA without Guenther, Schmidt, Marino; Cooley GTD; STL without Tucker | 1.8 pts against UTA |
| DET at WSH | NBA | WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic; DET without Duren, Joe | 1.5 pts against DET |
| BUF at CHI | NHL | CHI without Kane, Byram; BUF without Grzelcyk, Danforth; Helenius GTD | 1.1 pts toward BUF |
| TBL at CBJ | NHL | TBL without Point | 0.9 pts against TBL |
| MIN at TOR | NHL | TOR without Marchenko, Sissons, Rifai; Rielly GTD; MIN without Faber | 0.8 pts toward MIN |
| WSH at NJD | NHL | NJD without Mantha, Casey, Kovacevic; Pesce GTD; WSH without Sandin, Desharnais | 0.7 pts against NJD |
| WPG at DAL | NHL | DAL without Duchene, Bäck; Heiskanen GTD; WPG without Namestnikov; Salomonsson GTD | 0.5 pts against DAL |
| NYI at LAK | NHL | LAK: Doughty, Gustafsson GTD; NYI without Barzal, Maccelli, Ritchie; Pulock GTD | 0.4 pts toward LAK |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NBA teams on the second of a back to back win 46.5% against 50.9% overall; NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | NBA | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days | DET at WSH | DET 77% (our pick is the other side) |
| CHA | NBA | 2.9K km since the last game, 2 time zones crossed | CHA at PHX | PHX 68% (our pick is the other side) |
| PHX | NBA | 4 games in 7 days | CHA at PHX | PHX 68% (our pick) |
| TOR | NBA | second of a back to back | TOR at PHI | PHI 72% (our pick is the other side) |
| NJD | NHL | 4 games in 7 days, 2.1K km since the last game | WSH at NJD | NJD 57% (our pick) |
| UTA | NHL | second of a back to back | STL at UTA | UTA 51% (our pick) |
| TBL | NHL | second of a back to back, 4 games in 7 days, road game 4 | TBL at CBJ | TBL 51% (our pick) |
| BUF | NHL | second of a back to back | BUF at CHI | BUF 59% (our pick) |
How yesterday's cards landed (Nov 11)
NBA: 6-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA at CHI | SA | 87% | -1180 | Hit |
| LAL at MIL | LAL | 83% | -840 | Hit |
| GS at HOU | HOU | 70% | -264 | Hit |
| BOS at TOR | BOS | 65% | -204 | Hit |
| CLE at NY | NY | 63% | -205 | Miss |
| ORL at UTAH | ORL | 62% | -179 | Hit |
| DEN at MEM | DEN | 61% | -161 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Over 40.5 points | 65% | 32 | Miss |
| Victor Wembanyama | Over 32.5 points | 69% | 32 | Miss |
| Nikola Jokic | Over 21.5 points | 66% | 27 | Hit |
| Anthony Davis | Over 26.5 points | 66% | 21 | Miss |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 29.5 points | 69% | 31 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+838) missed; the props parlay (+646) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+436) missed.
NHL: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at EDM | EDM | 63% | -192 | Hit |
| NYR at CGY | NYR | 55% | -142 | Hit |
| NSH at ANA | ANA | 57% | -142 | Miss |
| PIT at SJS | PIT | 57% | -148 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 78% | 4 | Hit |
| Connor McDavid | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 2 | Hit |
| Tage Thompson | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 72% | 3 | Hit |
| Cutter Gauthier | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 84% | 7 | Hit |
| Logan Cooley | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 82% | - | Pending |
Tickets: the games parlay (+640) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+588) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 18 since Oct 1 | 38-16 | -0.37 u | -0.7% | 33-21 (61%) | 1-5 |
| MLB | 23 since Sep 30 | 21-16 | -0.65 u | -1.7% | 37-26 (59%) | 0-8 |
| NBA | 22 since Oct 20 | 93-23 | +9.52 u | +8.2% | 52-56 (48%) | 6-16 |
| NHL | 42 since Sep 30 | 111-57 | +3.80 u | +2.3% | 132-71 (65%) | 7-35 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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