Yandy Diaz and Nick Martinez Even the ALCS at 2-2, and Drew Rasmussen Draws Parker Messick in a Pivotal Game 5

The Tampa Bay Rays finally got their lineup going. One night after rain pushed ALCS Game 4 back a day, the Rays beat the Cleveland Guardians 7-3 at Progressive Field on Saturday night and tied the series at two games apiece. The ALCS is now a best-of-three, and the winner plays the Milwaukee Brewers in the World Series.

Nick Martinez carried the pitching side, allowing one run on two hits over 5 1/3 innings for his first career postseason win. Yandy Díaz finished it off with a two-run homer in the ninth, his first of the postseason. Game 5 is Sunday at 5 p.m. ET in Cleveland. Drew Rasmussen starts for Tampa Bay and rookie left-hander Parker Messick starts for the Guardians.

How Game 4 turned

Cleveland scored first on a Chase DeLauter RBI single in the first inning, and for a while that looked like it might be enough. After that, Martinez retired 11 straight hitters into the fifth. The Rays tied it in the third when Díaz doubled with two outs and Jonathan Aranda drove him in. Junior Caminero's RBI double off Daniel Espino put Tampa Bay ahead 2-1 in the sixth. Espino took the loss.

The seventh inning decided it. Aranda's single got under DeLauter's glove in right field, so a run-scoring hit became a two-run play, and Chandler Simpson added a sacrifice fly to make it 5-1. Cleveland answered in the bottom half. Travis Bazzana hit a solo homer, the first postseason home run by an Australian-born player in MLB history, and Brayan Rocchio's RBI single cut the lead to 5-3. Díaz's two-run shot in the ninth put the game away.

Cleveland also made a second error, a Bazzana fielding miss at second base. The Guardians scored three runs on eight hits and three walks. Steven Kwan split his lip diving headfirst into first base in the eighth inning, and he was bleeding during the inning. No other injuries were reported for either team.

The Rays' big three wake up

Before Saturday, Caminero, Díaz and Aranda were a combined 5-for-34 with one RBI in the series, per MLB.com. In Game 4, the top four hitters in Tampa Bay's order, Díaz, Aranda, Simpson and Caminero, had six of the team's 11 hits and drove in six runs. Aranda went 3-for-4 with two RBIs, Díaz had two hits and two RBIs, and Caminero hit a drive to center at 110.7 mph that was caught at the wall.

Closer Bryan Baker got the last outs with a four-run lead. He has finished every one of Tampa Bay's five postseason wins and has not allowed a run in five appearances this October. MLB.com noted that his fastball sat around 92 to 93 mph on Saturday, so watch his velocity if he is needed in a save spot Sunday.

Cleveland ran a seven-pitcher bullpen game. Shawn Armstrong opened, and Foster Griffin threw 44 pitches over 3 2/3 innings in relief. That workload matters for the rest of the series. Closer Cade Smith and setup men Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski did not pitch Saturday and should all be available for Game 5.

Game 5 pitching matchup

Rasmussen has been one of the best starters of the postseason. Messick is a rookie making his fourth postseason start on normal rest, and he has thrown about 198 innings between the regular season and the playoffs. MLB.com flagged both his command and that workload.

Messick also started Game 2 against this lineup. He went five innings and allowed six hits and three runs, none of them earned, with two walks, three strikeouts and a hit batter. His eight walks in 11 2/3 postseason innings are the number to watch, because the Rays' top four just had their best game of the series. Rasmussen's two postseason starts add up to 14 innings, two runs, two walks and 17 strikeouts. He is pitching on five days of rest, his usual routine during the regular season.

The projected lineups from MLB.com have Cleveland unchanged at the top: Kwan, Jose Ramirez, DeLauter, Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe. Ramirez's 16-game postseason on-base streak ties Kwan for the longest in franchise history. For Tampa Bay, catcher Liam Hicks (3-for-20 this postseason) and right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. (4-for-25 with 11 strikeouts) are still the soft spots.

Betting angle

Books have the Rays as a modest road favorite. Bettor's Insider listed Tampa Bay around -128 at DraftKings with Cleveland at +106. Another preview had the Rays at -125 and the Guardians at +120, so check a current number before betting. Totals in this series have been set in the 6.5 range. Before Game 4, the series price had Cleveland at -190 and the Rays at +160, and that gap should have closed quickly once the series was tied.

The case for the Rays starts with the pitching matchup. On a full schedule of rest, Rasmussen has been better than Messick in every category that matters this October. Cleveland's case is its bullpen: Smith, Gaddis and Sabrowski are all fresh, so if Messick can get through the lineup twice, the Guardians can shorten the game. The weakest spot for Cleveland is the middle innings. Griffin's 44 pitches on Saturday make him unlikely to cover length again, which leaves a thinner bridge if Messick exits early.

ESPN noted that in best-of-seven series tied 2-2, the Game 5 winner has gone on to win the series 67 percent of the time. For Verdexed's full read on Sunday's game, see the MLB predictions page and the MLB picks for October 18.

What Game 5 means for Games 6 and 7

There is no off day. Game 6 is Monday at Tropicana Field, where Tampa Bay had the best home record in the American League this season, per MLB.com. The Rays appear set to start Freddy Peralta in Game 6, even after he got two outs in relief Saturday. Cleveland's Game 6 plan is unclear after Griffin's long outing, and another bullpen game is possible. If the series reaches Game 7 on Tuesday, Gavin Williams lines up to start for Cleveland on normal rest, and the Rays could go with a bullpen game.

That sets up a lopsided stake for the Guardians. A Game 5 loss would send them to St. Petersburg needing to win twice in the Rays' building with a stretched staff. A win means they need one victory in two road games, with Williams waiting for Game 7.

What's next

First pitch is 5 p.m. ET Sunday on TBS, truTV and HBO Max. Some listings show 5:08 p.m. The forecast is clear but cooling into the evening, so the rain that disrupted Games 3 and 4 is not expected to be a factor.

The ALCS winner opens the World Series at American Family Field on Friday, Oct. 23. The Brewers will be on a full week of rest after sweeping the Dodgers. Before Game 4, DraftKings had Milwaukee at -190 to win the title, with Cleveland at +340 and Tampa Bay at +450. Expect the Rays' number to tighten after Saturday, and the Game 5 winner to move closest to the Brewers on the board.