Jake Bauers Punishes Blake Snell's Seventh Inning and the Brewers Push the Dodgers to the Brink, 3-0 in the NLCS

The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-2 in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series on Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium and lead the series 3-0. Milwaukee is one win from its first World Series appearance in 44 years, and the two-time defending champion Dodgers now face elimination in Game 4 on Thursday, with first pitch moved up an hour to 8 p.m. ET.

The game turned in the seventh inning. Blake Snell had been brilliant, striking out nine through six innings on just 81 pitches and retiring 14 straight hitters. Dave Roberts sent him back out for the seventh. Snell walked Andrew Vaughn to open the inning and then allowed back-to-back home runs, including a two-run shot from Jake Bauers that ended an 11-pitch at-bat. That swing, and the decision that preceded it, will define the Dodgers' night.

How Game 3 unfolded

Jackson Chourio set the tone by hitting the first pitch of the game for a home run. Snell then settled in and dominated, but the Dodgers could not do anything with Robert Gasser, who threw five shutout innings for Milwaukee.

Los Angeles finally broke through in the sixth after Gasser left. Abner Uribe came on and walked three Dodgers, and Will Smith followed with a two-run double off the top of the left-center field wall. That gave the Dodgers a 2-1 lead. It did not last: the seventh-inning homers put Milwaukee back in front, and the Brewers bullpen closed it out from there.

That pattern, the Dodgers taking a lead and immediately giving it back, has been the story of the series. Milwaukee won Game 1 by a run, pulled away late in Game 2 behind William Contreras and a bullpen that retired the final 15 Dodgers, and now has done it again.

The Roberts decision

Leaving Snell in for the seventh is the kind of choice that gets second-guessed loudly when it fails. His pitch count was low and he had been dominant, so the case for letting him face the bottom of the order a third time was reasonable on its face. The case against was that the Dodgers' bullpen was rested and that third-time-through-the-order penalties are well documented. Roberts explained afterward that he trusted Snell given how he was throwing.

For bettors, the takeaway is the Dodgers' late-inning fragility. Across three games, the Brewers have won the middle and late innings decisively, and that is the area where Milwaukee's pitching depth shows up most clearly.

Game 4 pitching matchup

The Dodgers will start Tyler Glasnow with their season on the line. Roberts said Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Justin Wrobleski are all unavailable Thursday, which shrinks the list of length options behind Glasnow.

Milwaukee had not officially announced its starter, but multiple reports, including from Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci, say the Brewers plan to start rookie left-hander Shane Drohan, with former Dodger Dustin May expected to follow in relief. Drohan has not pitched in the postseason and has not appeared in a game since Sept. 27, which makes him a short-leash opener in practice.

Betting angle

The Dodgers will be favored at home in Game 4, and history says a 3-0 hole is close to fatal. But single-game pricing is a different question. Glasnow at full strength is one of the best starters left in the postseason, and the Brewers are going to a rookie who has not pitched in nearly three weeks.

The first five innings are where that mismatch is most pronounced, and the Dodgers' first-five price is the purest way to express it. The full-game market is complicated by the fact that Milwaukee's bullpen has been better than the Dodgers' in every game of this series.

For the model's read on the game, Verdexed's daily board will be at MLB picks for October 15, with season-long context at MLB predictions.

Fantasy and futures takeaways

For daily fantasy contests running on the playoff slate, Glasnow is the strikeout play, and the Dodgers' hitters project for the most favorable matchup they have seen in the series against a rusty rookie lefty. Shohei Ohtani and the left-handed bats face a platoon disadvantage against Drohan, but the expectation is that Milwaukee pivots to May early.

On the Brewers' side, Chourio and Contreras have been the series' most dangerous hitters, and Bauers has added length to the lineup at the bottom.

In the futures market, the Brewers are now the clear favorite to win the pennant, and their World Series price has tightened accordingly. Anyone holding Dodgers futures needs four straight wins, starting with Glasnow.

What's next

Game 4 is Thursday at 8 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. If Milwaukee wins, the Brewers advance to the World Series to face the winner of the Rays-Guardians ALCS. If the Dodgers win, Game 5 is Friday in Los Angeles, and the pressure shifts slightly back to Milwaukee with Skubal and Yamamoto rested.