Michael King Saves the Padres on One Day of Rest as Walker Buehler and Tyler Glasnow Take the NLDS Game 4s

The San Diego Padres are still alive. Jake Cronenworth broke a tie with a solo homer off JoJo Romero, Game 2 starter Michael King covered the final two innings on one day of rest, and San Diego beat the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 at Petco Park on Tuesday night to cut Milwaukee's NLDS lead to 2-1. A few hours earlier in Atlanta, Yoshinobu Yamamoto struck out a postseason career-high 10 over seven innings and the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Braves 3-1 at Truist Park for a 2-1 lead of their own.

That leaves both National League series on the same footing Wednesday: a road favorite one win from the NLCS and a home team trying to force a Game 5. Tyler Glasnow faces Tyler Mahle in Atlanta at 6 p.m. ET on FS1, and Walker Buehler starts for San Diego against a Milwaukee pitcher still to be named at 10 p.m. ET, also on FS1. If either series goes the distance, Game 5 is Friday, Oct. 9, back in Milwaukee and Los Angeles.

How San Diego survived

All three games of this series have now been decided by one run, the first postseason series to open that way since the 2021 NLCS, per MLB.com. Game 3 followed the script. Manny Machado singled home Jackson Merrill in the third inning, and the Padres kept nudging ahead while Milwaukee kept answering, with Jackson Chourio tying the game 2-2 on a sacrifice fly. Cronenworth then turned on a first pitch from Romero, left-on-left, for a 3-2 lead that San Diego never gave back. Xander Bogaerts added the fourth run by dodging a broken bat, taking third and scoring on a throwing error by Brewers shortstop Cooper Pratt.

Nick Pivetta gave the Padres 4 1/3 innings, allowing two runs on five hits with four strikeouts and no walks. Milwaukee starter Dustin May lasted three innings (two runs, three hits, three strikeouts, two walks) and was pulled abruptly in the fourth with a runner aboard and a 1-0 count on Bogaerts.

The finish belonged to King. Working without closer Mason Miller, who went on the paternity list before the game, and with Adrian Morejon held back by left shoulder fatigue, manager Craig Stammen handed the last six outs to his Game 2 starter. King needed about 40 pitches to get through the eighth and still came back for the ninth. Christian Yelich, who had ended a postseason RBI drought dating to 2018 earlier in the night, ripped a 107 mph liner up the middle with a runner on, and Bogaerts dropped to his knees, gloved it on a short hop, stepped on second and threw to first for a game-ending double play. It was King's first save since 2023 and his first in the postseason.

How Los Angeles took control in Atlanta

Yamamoto and Chris Sale matched each other for three innings, each striking out six with no runs allowed. The fourth inning decided it. Andy Pages singled, Kike Hernandez pulled a two-run homer to left, and one out later Freddie Freeman homered to right for a 3-0 lead. It was Hernandez's 17th career postseason homer and Freeman's 18th, and Freeman has now homered in back-to-back games. Sale lasted five innings and allowed three runs on the two homers.

Yamamoto did the rest, allowing one run over seven innings. Atlanta has scored seven runs in three games, and its core is cold: Drake Baldwin is 3-for-23 this postseason, Matt Olson is 4-for-23, and Ronald Acuna Jr. is 3-for-21 with a .451 OPS, per MLB.com. Acuna was moved to designated hitter about 90 minutes before first pitch because of his ailing right knee.

The Dodgers have their own concern at the top. Shohei Ohtani went 0-for-2 with a walk and reached on catcher's interference after Dave Roberts dropped him to fifth in the order, and he is hitting .200 in the series while managing right biceps and left knee issues. Miguel Rojas left Game 3 with back pain and is unlikely to start Wednesday.

Wednesday's Game 4 matchups

Glasnow made only 13 regular-season starts because of a back injury, but he finished with consecutive double-digit strikeout outings and ranked fourth among qualified starters at 11.92 strikeouts per nine, per MLB.com. Mahle, acquired from San Francisco at midseason, posted a 1.99 ERA over his final nine starts and allowed one run over seven innings in his postseason debut in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against Philadelphia. With Acuna's knee limiting him, Atlanta has moved Ha-Seong Kim to shortstop, and Acuna may DH again.

In San Diego, Buehler makes his first postseason appearance since he closed out the Yankees in Game 5 of the 2024 World Series. He carries a 3.04 career postseason ERA in 19 games. Pat Murphy did not name a Brewers starter after Game 3 but listed left-handers Robert Gasser and Shane Drohan and right-hander Chad Patrick as multi-inning options. Gasser, who posted a 1.67 ERA over his final six regular-season outings, is the conventional starter of the group; a Patrick start would signal a bullpen game. San Diego's Miller and Morejon are both expected to be more available than they were Tuesday, though neither status was firm as of Wednesday morning.

The market

Sportsbooks have the Dodgers around -142 in Game 4 with the Braves near +120 and a total of 7.5. The Padres-Brewers line is close to a coin flip, with San Diego a slight home favorite around -115 and Milwaukee near even money, also with a total of 7.5. Milwaukee's road history hangs over the price: the Brewers are 6-24 all-time in postseason road games and have lost 12 straight, per MLB.com. Teams that trail 0-2 and win Game 3 have forced a Game 5 in 18 of 39 instances, per MLB.com.

Fantasy and DFS fallout

Glasnow is the strongest pitching play on the Wednesday NL slate. His strikeout rate is elite, and he faces an Atlanta lineup with three of its best bats in deep slumps and a hobbled Acuna. The risk is length, since a pitcher with a back history in an elimination road game may be on a shorter leash than his stuff deserves. On the other side, Freeman (two straight games with a homer) and Hernandez, who has historically produced a homer roughly every 19.5 postseason plate appearances, are the hottest Dodgers bats. Ohtani in the five hole is a price-driven contrarian play at best until he shows life.

In San Diego, Machado is hitting .375 with a 1.212 OPS in the series and is the anchor of any Padres stack. For Milwaukee, William Contreras (4-for-11) and Yelich (4-for-10) have carried the offense while Brice Turang, Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell are a combined 5-for-33 with 15 strikeouts, per MLB.com. Fade Buehler strikeout overs; his regular-season ERA (4.63) suggests the Padres will be quick with the hook.

The Verdexed angle

The cleaner betting read is the Dodgers' series position. Los Angeles has the better Game 4 starter, a run-prevention edge in the series and a Game 5 at home if needed. The Braves' price at home reflects how much Mahle's late-season form is worth, and Atlanta needs its slumping middle of the order to wake up against a high-strikeout right-hander, which is the toughest possible matchup for a slump. San Diego-Milwaukee is the opposite: every game has been one run, both bullpens are compromised (Miller and Morejon on one side, a Brewers staff likely to empty the pen on the other), and the pitching matchup is undefined. In a series this tight, the late-innings availability notes posted before first pitch matter more than the starting pitcher. For the full slate and lines, see /mlb/predictions and today's MLB picks.

What's next

Both Game 4s are Wednesday. A Dodgers win sends Los Angeles to its third straight NLCS; a Braves win sets up Game 5 at Dodger Stadium on Friday at 8 p.m. ET. A Brewers win puts the NL's top seed in the NLCS; a Padres win sends the series back to American Family Field for Game 5 on Friday, scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET if both NL series go five (8 p.m. ET if it is the only one). Watch for the Brewers' starter announcement and the Padres' bullpen notes on Miller and Morejon before first pitch.