Yordan Alvarez and Pete Crow-Armstrong Headline Thursday's MVP Announcement: The 2027 Fantasy Draft Read on All Six Finalists

The Baseball Writers' Association of America announces its 2026 Most Valuable Player awards Thursday evening on MLB Network, closing out awards week. Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros is the overwhelming favorite in the American League over Junior Caminero and Bobby Witt Jr., while Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs is the heavy favorite in the National League over Shohei Ohtani and Brice Turang.

Ohtani's run of three straight MVP awards is widely expected to end, and betting markets have treated both races as close to settled for weeks. The more useful question for fantasy managers is what these six seasons say about 2027 draft boards, which will be shaped this winter by a lockout threat and a slow-moving free-agent market.

The finalists at a glance

The six finalists were announced Nov. 2. Their regular-season lines show why the races are viewed as lopsided, and why the fantasy rankings for 2027 will not line up neatly with the voting.

The American League: Alvarez's case and the other two

Alvarez won the AL batting title at .316 and led the league in on-base percentage (.432), slugging (.601) and OPS (1.033). He finished second in the league in both home runs (42) and RBI (106), fell one homer and seven RBI short of a Triple Crown, and led AL hitters in win probability added. Houston finished 81-81, and much of the coverage has framed Alvarez as the reason the Astros stayed in contention at all.

Caminero's case rests on power and durability. He played all 162 games, hit 42 home runs and drove in 101 runs. Witt led the AL in FanGraphs WAR at 7.0, stole 45 bases (second in the league) and led all AL defenders in Outs Above Average, but he played a career-low 143 games after a July stint on the injured list with lower back tightness and hit only 18 homers. He was still named First Team All-MLB at shortstop for a third straight season this week.

The National League: a 40-40 season versus a wounded two-way star

Crow-Armstrong became the seventh player in history to join the 40-40 club, finishing with 45 home runs, 41 steals, 107 RBI and 119 runs while slashing .280/.372/.570. He led the majors in WAR by both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs and won a Platinum Glove for his defense in center field. It is the most complete fantasy season of the year at any position.

Ohtani reached the finalist group despite a left knee issue and a right biceps injury that compromised his season. He hit .275 with 30 homers, 81 RBI and an .889 OPS, but batted .205 after beginning a throwing progression on Aug. 8. On the mound he made 14 starts, going 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts over 85 2/3 innings before injuries ended his pitching after early July. Turang, the Milwaukee second baseman, hit 21 homers with 100 RBI and 19 steals for a Brewers team that posted MLB's best record at 103-59, and his defense and baserunning carried much of his case.

2027 fantasy read: where each finalist belongs

Crow-Armstrong is a first-round pick in every format next spring. The combination of 40-plus homers and steals with elite defense keeping him in the lineup every day gives him a floor few hitters can match. The one question is whether the power is repeatable, and drafters should expect some regression from 45 while still treating him as an elite five-category asset. Witt belongs right next to him: a down year by his standards still produced 45 steals, and a healthy season with a normal home run total puts him back in the conversation for the top overall pick.

Alvarez is the best pure hitter on the board, but his value depends on health and on designated-hitter eligibility. In leagues that require a DH or utility slot to be filled, his ratio stats and power make him a late first-round or early second-round pick. Caminero, at 42 homers in a full season, is one of the safest sources of power available at a thin third-base position, and his durability is a genuine edge for drafters.

Ohtani is the hardest call. In formats that count him as both a hitter and a pitcher, his value depends almost entirely on the health of his knee and biceps, and managers should watch for spring reports before committing a first-round pick. Turang is the classic case of a player more valuable to his real team than to fantasy rosters: his defense drives his WAR, but 21 homers and 19 steals at second base still make him a solid middle-round target.

The Verdexed angle

Awards voting rewards defense, durability and context, while fantasy rewards counting stats and ratios. That gap explains why Turang and Witt rank higher here than they will on many draft boards, and why Caminero's 162 games deserve more credit in fantasy than a voter might give them. When building 2027 rankings, separate the skills that travel (Crow-Armstrong's speed and power, Alvarez's contact quality) from the context that may not (Turang's run production in a 103-win lineup).

Betting markets have treated both MVP races as foregone conclusions, so the more actionable angle for bettors is in next season's futures, where a repeat of Crow-Armstrong's power and Alvarez's health are both open questions. For Verdexed's game-level view once the season begins, follow /mlb/predictions.

What's next

The MVP winners are scheduled to be revealed on MLB Network Thursday night, completing awards week after the Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year and Cy Young announcements. The general managers' meetings wrap up the same day, with the owners' meetings to follow Nov. 17-19 and the collective bargaining agreement set to expire at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on Dec. 1. Free agents such as Tarik Skubal are expected to try to sign before that deadline, and every major signing will move the draft value of the hitters and pitchers around them.