Gavin Williams and Sean Burke Start ALDS Game 5, and the Winner Gets the Rested Rays Monday

The starters are set for the last Division Series game of 2026. Gavin Williams will start for the Cleveland Guardians and Sean Burke for the Chicago White Sox in a winner-take-all ALDS Game 5 on Saturday night at Progressive Field, with first pitch at 8 p.m. ET on TBS and truTV. Both managers confirmed their choices on Friday, per MLB.com, ESPN and the AP. The winner flies to St. Petersburg and faces Drew Rasmussen and the rested Tampa Bay Rays in ALCS Game 1 on Monday night.

Earlier in the week, both plans were hedged. Williams had just recorded the final three outs of Game 4 in relief, and Chicago manager Will Venable would only commit to Burke pitching in some role. Now both are confirmed as true starters, and that changes how this game, and the ALCS opener behind it, should be handicapped.

Why Vogt stayed with Williams

Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt made it clear that Game 5 belongs to Williams, and Williams reportedly asked for the ball after his 18-pitch ninth inning on Thursday. The off day on Friday gave him a normal bullpen-day recovery. The concern is length, not availability: a starter who threw in relief two days earlier may be on a shorter leash than usual, and Vogt has an exhausted bullpen behind him.

The case for Williams is his Game 2 start. He struck out 11 White Sox over five innings, and Cleveland lost only because the bullpen gave the game away late. Over the regular season he went 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and led the American League with 248 strikeouts. His weakness is efficiency: high strikeout totals come with high pitch counts, and five innings from him on Saturday may be the realistic ceiling.

Burke's case for Chicago

Venable is going with the pitcher who has handled this lineup all year. Burke went 11-7 with a 3.34 ERA in the regular season, per SI's game preview, and was excellent in his outings against Cleveland, with multiple outlets listing his ERA against the Guardians near 1.00 (they differ slightly on the exact line). In Game 2 he entered in the third inning and allowed one run on one hit over 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts, at one stretch retiring 13 straight.

The difference on Saturday is that Burke starts instead of piggybacking. In Game 2 he faced the bottom of the order early and settled in. As a starter he will see Jose Ramirez, who is 4-for-9 with five RBIs since an 0-for-6 start to the series, in the first inning. Chicago's bullpen is in worse shape than Cleveland's after Thursday: Erick Fedde threw 61 pitches, Hagen Smith has appeared three times, and closer Grant Taylor did not record an out in a six-run sixth.

The Game 5 market

Cleveland is the favorite, but not by much. Books are dealing the Guardians around -135 to -141, with the White Sox at roughly +115 to +118, per SI, FanDuel and FOX Sports odds roundups. The total is 7 to 7.5 runs, a full run higher than the NLCS Game 1 number on Sunday, which reflects how tired both bullpens are after the two slugfests in Chicago.

The contrarian argument for Chicago is simple: the road team has won all four games in this series, and the White Sox won both games at Progressive Field to open it. Several betting previews have flagged Chicago's plus price as the value side for that reason. The argument for Cleveland is that the Guardians have scored nine runs in back-to-back games and get their strikeout ace at home. The market splits the difference with a modest favorite.

The full-game total is the harder call. Two strong starters argue for the under early, while two depleted bullpens argue for runs late. First-five-inning markets isolate the starters and remove most of the bullpen risk, which is the cleaner way to bet a Williams-Burke game. Verdexed's model view on Game 5 is on /mlb/predictions, with the full slate at /blog/mlb-picks-2026-10-10.

What Game 5 means for the ALCS

Whoever wins will open the ALCS at a disadvantage. Tampa Bay swept the Yankees, last played on Wednesday and gets Rasmussen on full rest in Game 1. Kevin Cash has said he will not announce the rest of his ALCS plan until the opponent is known, though he has indicated he will lean on all five of his starting options in some role.

The opponent's Game 1 starter is the big unknown. Cleveland would likely need a back-end arm or a bullpen game on Monday after using Williams on Saturday and Parker Messick for only 2 1/3 innings on Thursday. Chicago faces a similar problem with Fedde taxed and Burke used Saturday. That is why the Rays enter as the clear AL pennant favorite at BetMGM, with Cleveland and Chicago both at long plus prices, per the book's AL odds board. The board was set before Game 5, so expect a fresh ALCS series price late Saturday.

The ALCS futures angle runs through Saturday's result. A Cleveland win puts a team with the hotter offense, but the more worn bullpen, against Tampa Bay. A Chicago win brings a club that has not reached the ALCS since 2005 and a lineup led by Miguel Vargas, who has been on base constantly this series. Junior Caminero sits atop the early ALCS MVP board, per BetMGM, which makes sense given the Rays will be favored in most games.

Fantasy and DFS takeaways

Saturday's slate has one game, so Williams is the anchor in most single-game builds. His strikeout ceiling is the highest on the slate and the White Sox struck out 11 times against him less than a week ago, though his short leash caps his innings. Burke is the cheaper pitcher with a real path to six innings against a lineup he has handled all season.

For hitters, Ramirez is the Cleveland priority, and Patrick Bailey, who homered and delivered the go-ahead single in Game 4, should be in the lineup with Williams on the mound. On the Chicago side, Vargas is the steadiest option, and the White Sox bats get value from the fact that Cleveland's late-inning relievers threw heavily on Thursday. For Monday, Rasmussen is the top pitching option on an ALCS-only slate regardless of who wins tonight, and Rays bats get a bump against a short-rest or bullpen-game opponent.

What's next

Game 5 decides the last ALCS spot tonight. Tampa Bay should announce its Game 2 starter on Sunday once the opponent is known, and the winner of Game 5 will need to name a Game 1 starter on short notice. ALCS Game 1 is Monday at 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, and Game 2 follows Tuesday. Watch the series price that posts after the final out: the gap between the Rays and their opponent will show how much the market charges for a tired staff.