Petey Halpin Puts Cleveland Up 2-1 in the ALCS, and Nick Martinez Draws a Guardians Bullpen Game With Rain Hanging Over Game 4

The Cleveland Guardians beat the Tampa Bay Rays 3-2 in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series on Thursday afternoon at Progressive Field and lead the best-of-seven series 2-1. Rookie center fielder Petey Halpin hit a go-ahead two-run home run off Rays starter Griffin Jax in the fifth inning, and Gavin Williams struck out nine over five innings before a five-man Cleveland pitching staff finished the job.

Game 4 is scheduled for Friday night in Cleveland, with MLB.com listing an 8 p.m. ET first pitch on TBS. Tampa Bay is expected to start veteran right-hander Nick Martinez. Cleveland had not named a starter as of Friday and is expected to piece the game together with its bullpen. A wet forecast could still push the game to Saturday, which would change both teams' plans.

How Game 3 turned

The Rays carried a 2-1 lead into the fifth after scratching out runs against Williams, including one on a Chandler Simpson hit. Catcher Patrick Bailey opened the bottom of the fifth with an infield single, and Halpin followed by turning on a 95.9 mph sinker from Jax on a 2-2 count. Statcast measured the ball at 105 mph off the bat and a projected 385 feet to right field. Kevin Cash pulled Jax after Brayan Rocchio singled behind the homer, but the damage was done.

Halpin is in the lineup mostly for his glove. He slugged .326 in the regular season, and MLB.com compared the moment, bat flip included, to Tom Lawless's homer in the 1987 World Series. Bailey has followed the same unlikely path: a career .339 slugger, he is slugging .609 this postseason with home runs in both the ALDS and the ALCS.

Williams was the other headline. The right-hander touched 99 mph early and was still around 95 mph in the fifth when Stephen Vogt pulled him, a cautious decision given his heavy recent workload. According to MLB.com, Williams now has 33 strikeouts in 16 2/3 postseason innings, a 45.9% strikeout rate that is the highest in postseason history among pitchers with at least 10 innings. Closer Cade Smith recorded the final four outs.

Tampa Bay's offense is the problem

The Rays went 3-for-30 with one walk and 13 strikeouts in Game 3, and they have not scored more than three runs in any game of the series. The heart of the order is the issue. Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, the club's three best regular-season hitters, are a combined 5-for-34 in the ALCS with one home run and one RBI. Aranda is 0-for-10, and Caminero, a likely top finisher in AL MVP voting, struck out in all four of his at-bats on Thursday.

History favors Cleveland. Per MLB.com, teams that win Game 3 of a best-of-seven series tied 1-1 have gone on to win 71 of 102 times. In the 2-3-2 format specifically, teams that won Game 3 at home to go up 2-1 have won 30 of 49 times.

Game 4 pitching: Martinez against a Cleveland bullpen game

Martinez, 36, went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA over a career-high 31 starts during the regular season and allowed no earned runs in two starts against Cleveland. His postseason has been bumpier: he allowed two runs on five hits in 3 2/3 innings in ALDS Game 3 at Yankee Stadium, and he has worked out of the bullpen earlier in this series. Expect Cash to treat him as a two-times-through-the-order starter at most.

Cleveland's plan is murkier. MLB.com reports that Vogt is likely to lean on left-hander Joey Cantillo, who threw 17 pitches in Game 1 and last started on Sept. 7, along with right-handers Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi. The Guardians have used six, four and five pitchers in the first three games, and Smith has appeared in seven of their eight playoff games, so leverage arms are getting thin.

The rain contingency matters. If Friday is washed out, MLB.com reports the Rays could hand Game 4 to ace Drew Rasmussen on normal rest, and Cleveland could turn to Foster Griffin, who threw 63 pitches over four innings in Game 1. That is a meaningfully different game, and anyone betting early should know the starters can change overnight.

Betting angle

The Game 4 moneyline is essentially a coin flip. Previews from several outlets on Friday showed the Rays as a slight road favorite or the two sides near even money, which reflects the gap between a named starter for Tampa Bay and a bullpen game for Cleveland. The total has sat in the low range that this series has earned, with neither team scoring more than three runs in a game so far.

The case for Tampa Bay is simple: Martinez gives the Rays a defined plan, Cleveland's relievers have carried a heavy load, and the Rays' best hitters are too good to stay this cold. The case for Cleveland is that its pitching has suppressed this lineup for three straight games, and a bullpen game at home with matchup flexibility plays to the strength Vogt has leaned on all October. The under has been the cleanest read of the series, but bullpen games can leak runs when lesser arms pitch the middle innings, so price matters.

In the series and futures markets, the Game 3 result shifted value toward Cleveland, but books still respect Tampa Bay's rotation depth with Rasmussen lined up behind Martinez. Shop the series price before Game 4, because a Rays win would swing it back sharply. Verdexed's daily model card for every game is at MLB picks for October 16, with broader context at MLB predictions.

DFS and props angle

On a short playoff slate, Martinez is the only confirmed starter in this game, which makes him the cleaner DFS pitching option, but his projected leash is short and his strikeout ceiling is modest. Pitcher outs props are the more direct way to express a view on how long Cash lets him go. Cleveland's bullpen game means no Guardians pitcher carries a reliable strikeout prop.

On the hitting side, Jose Ramirez remains the Guardians' anchor against a right-hander, and Bailey's postseason power makes him a sneaky low-salary catcher. For Tampa Bay, buying Caminero after an 0-for-4, four-strikeout game is a contrarian play, but the matchup against a parade of Cleveland relievers is not easy. Avoid paying up for Aranda until he shows signs of life.

What's next

Game 4 is set for Friday night in Cleveland, weather permitting. A Guardians win would give them a 3-1 lead and put them one victory from their first World Series since 2016, with Game 5 at home. A Rays win evens the series at 2-2 and likely sets up Rasmussen for Game 5.

The winner meets the Milwaukee Brewers, who swept the Dodgers on Thursday night and open the World Series at home on Friday, Oct. 23.