Drew Rasmussen Gets ALCS Game 1 and the Rested Rays Wait on a Worn-Out Opponent

Drew Rasmussen will start Game 1 of the American League Championship Series for the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday at Tropicana Field. Manager Kevin Cash said he is very confident Rasmussen will take the ball in the opener, with the rest of the rotation to be decided as the week unfolds, per MLB.com. Tampa Bay still does not know its opponent: the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox play a decisive ALDS Game 5 on Saturday night in Cleveland after the Guardians won 9-5 on Thursday to tie the series 2-2.

That gap in the calendar is the betting and fantasy story of the week. The Rays finished a three-game sweep of the Yankees on Wednesday and will have four full days off before Game 1. Their opponent will arrive less than 48 hours after a winner-take-all game, with a bullpen that has been stretched over five games in six days.

Why Rasmussen lines up perfectly

The sweep did more than end the Yankees' season. Rasmussen threw the series opener, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning and striking out 10 in a 1-0 win, and he was in line to start a Game 4 that never came. That leaves him on full rest for Monday and sets Tampa Bay up to use its best starter as many as three times in a best-of-seven if the series goes the distance.

Beyond Game 1, Cash has declined to set the order. He has said the Rays intend to use all five of Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta, Nick Martinez, Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour in some role, starting or in relief between starts. The Tampa Bay Times projects Peralta for Game 2 given his strong record at Tropicana Field and Martinez for Game 3 on the road, with Game 4 an open choice between Jax and Seymour, the only lefty in the group. Treat that as informed projection rather than a team announcement.

What the ALDS showed about this staff

Tampa Bay allowed five runs in three games against the Yankees. Peralta allowed one run over 4 2/3 innings in Game 2. In Game 3, Martinez got 11 outs, Seymour threw 1 1/3 scoreless innings in relief, Kevin Kelly stranded a runner by striking out Giancarlo Stanton in the eighth, and Bryan Baker closed it, finishing with saves in all three games.

The structure matters for how to bet this team. The Rays do not ask starters to go deep. They ask a group of five pitchers to cover the middle innings in whatever combination fits the matchup, then hand a lead to Kelly and Baker. That makes first-five-inning markets on Rays starters less predictable than usual, because a Rays starter can be pulled at the first sign of trouble, while it makes full-game unders more attractive when the bullpen is fully rested. After a sweep and four off days, it will be.

Every game airs on TBS and truTV, with streaming on HBO Max. Game 4 moves to 8 p.m. if the NLCS ends in a sweep, and Game 6 moves to 8 p.m. if there is no NLCS Game 7.

What the opponent will look like on Monday

Whoever wins Saturday will open the ALCS short on pitching. Cleveland used eight pitchers in Game 4 after Parker Messick lasted 2 1/3 innings, and closer Cade Smith threw 31 pitches. Gavin Williams, the Guardians' likely Game 5 starter, also recorded the final three outs of Game 4. Chicago used seven pitchers on Thursday, Erick Fedde threw 61 pitches, rookie lefty Hagen Smith has appeared three times in the series, and closer Grant Taylor failed to record an out in a six-run sixth inning. Sean Burke is expected to start or pitch in bulk relief for the White Sox on Saturday.

That means the Game 1 starter against Rasmussen is likely to be a back-end option on short notice, or a bullpen game. Either way, the Rays should have the clearer pitching edge in Game 1 than at any other point in the series.

Betting angle

Tampa Bay is the betting favorite to win the AL pennant at major books, per BetMGM and ESPN futures listings, and that price was set before the Game 5 matchup was known. A series price will post after Saturday, and we expect the Rays to be favored against either opponent.

Our lean for Game 1 is the Rays regardless of opponent. Rasmussen on full rest, at home, against a team that will have played a winner-take-all game two nights earlier is as clean a spot as this postseason has produced. The Rays' run prevention also points toward the under in Game 1 if the total opens at a normal postseason number, since Tampa Bay has not allowed more than three runs in any of its three playoff games.

The series itself is a closer call than the rest edge suggests. Cleveland's offense has scored nine runs in back-to-back games, and the White Sox won the regular-season series against the Guardians, which tells you both possible opponents can hit. The Rays' depth is an advantage in a seven-game series, but their own lineup produced only modest output against the Yankees outside of a few big swings by Victor Mesa Jr. and Ryan Vilade. Verdexed's game-by-game probabilities will be at /mlb/predictions once the matchup is set.

What to do in postseason fantasy and DFS

Rasmussen is the top pitching play on Monday's slate, and the NLCS is idle that night, so Monday is an ALCS-only slate. Ownership will be heavy, but there is no strong pivot on the other side. Rays relievers, Baker in particular, carry real value in postseason formats that score saves and holds.

For hitters, the Game 1 targets are on the Rays side, against whichever depleted staff shows up. Mesa, who hit the go-ahead homer in the Game 3 clincher in New York, is the name to watch. On the other side, wait to see who wins Saturday. If Cleveland advances, Jose Ramirez is the opposing hitter worth a priority slot against Rasmussen; if Chicago does, Miguel Vargas, who reached base 12 times in the ALDS, is the steadiest option.

What's next

Saturday's Game 5 in Cleveland settles the opponent. Expect the Rays to announce the rest of their rotation order by Sunday, and expect both ALCS teams to set their rosters before Monday. If Tampa Bay keeps the projected order, Peralta pitches Game 2 at home on Tuesday, and Rasmussen would be lined up to return for Game 5 on the road.