Tarik Skubal and William Contreras Win the NLDS Openers as Blake Snell and Michael King Take Sunday's Game 2s
By Verdexed MLB Desk
The two National League favorites held serve on Saturday, though only one of them made it look easy. Tarik Skubal threw six innings of one-run ball in 100-degree heat at Dodger Stadium, and Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy homered in a 5-3 Dodgers win over the Braves. In Milwaukee, Jacob Misiorowski lasted only four innings, but Jackson Chourio and William Contreras homered and five relievers threw five scoreless frames in a 3-2 Brewers win over the Padres that ended with a ball off the roof.
Both Game 2s are on Sunday, and both underdogs face a version of the same problem: they need a split before heading home, and the pitching matchups are not friendly.
Dodgers 5, Braves 3: Skubal delivers in the heat
Skubal, the deadline acquisition from Detroit, struck out seven and allowed one run on two hits over six innings, at one point retiring 15 straight batters, per the AP and ESPN. The only damage was a 421-foot solo homer by Sean Murphy. The game-time temperature was 100 degrees.
Atlanta went with a bullpen approach, and it held up early. Left-hander Dylan Dodd threw three scoreless innings, allowing only singles to Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts. The game turned when Victor Mederos walked Freddie Freeman and Hernandez followed with a 431-foot homer to left-center for a 2-0 lead. Tucker and Muncy added solo shots as Los Angeles pulled away. Mederos took the loss.
The ninth got uncomfortable. Ozzie Albies hit a two-run homer off Tanner Scott to bring the tying run to the plate, and Evan Phillips ended it by getting Austin Riley to bounce out. Ohtani singled at 105 mph in his first at-bat and flied out in his next three.
Brewers 3, Padres 2: the bullpen and the roof
San Diego scored first. With Robbie Ray starting, the Padres strung together one-out singles from Xander Bogaerts, Ethan Salas and Luis Campusano in the second, with Campusano driving in a run, and Jake Cronenworth added another on a broken-bat grounder when Jake Bauers could not get Salas at the plate. Misiorowski, the majors' ERA and strikeout leader, kept fighting through long counts as San Diego fouled off pitch after pitch, and he exited after four innings: four hits, two runs, one walk and six strikeouts.
Ray did not get much further. He allowed two runs on four hits in 2 2/3 innings, and the two runs came on Chourio's two-run homer in the third, his fifth career postseason homer and a Brewers franchise record. Contreras broke the tie in the seventh with a full-count, two-out solo shot off Adrian Morejon.
Milwaukee's bullpen did the rest. Antonio Senzatela, Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, DL Hall and Trevor Megill combined for five scoreless innings, with Hall credited with the win and Megill recording a four-out save that included a three-pitch strikeout of Fernando Tatis Jr. with runners on the corners. In the ninth, Ty France launched a fly ball that would have been a go-ahead two-run homer, but it struck the closed roof, and Chourio caught it in left for an out. Under American Family Field's ground rules, a fair ball that hits the roof or its cables stays live.
San Diego is also short a starter. Walker Buehler is away from the team for the birth of his child, and Randy Vasquez is on the NLDS roster in the meantime, per reports.
Game 2 probables and the market
| Series | Game 2 time (ET) | Starters | Game 2 moneyline | Pre-series price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres at Brewers | 4 p.m., FS1 | Michael King vs. Logan Henderson | MIL -144, SD +121 | MIL -180, SD +150 |
| Braves at Dodgers | 8 p.m. | TBD vs. Blake Snell | LAD -148, ATL +126 | LAD about -230 |
Henderson, 24, makes his postseason debut after a 2.47 ERA over 18 starts with 110 strikeouts in 98 1/3 innings. He has never allowed more than three runs in a big-league start. King is coming off seven scoreless innings against the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, and he is the Padres' best chance to send the series to Petco Park tied.
The Dodgers confirmed Blake Snell for Game 2, a second straight left-hander against a Braves lineup that struggled against lefties this season, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto lined up for Game 3. Atlanta has not named its starter. Chris Sale is the popular assumption, but he would be on two days' rest after closing out the Wild Card clincher Thursday, and manager Walt Weiss said the club would decide Sunday. If it is not Sale, Grant Holmes or rookie JR Ritchie are the options, per MLB.com.
Betting angle
Both Game 2 favorites are priced much shorter than their series numbers were, and that is a reflection of the starting matchups. In Milwaukee, the line moved toward a tighter game with King on the mound for San Diego. The Padres won the regular-season series 4-2 and lost Game 1 by one run, with a ball off the roof deciding the ninth. If you think San Diego is live, the Game 2 moneyline is a cheaper entry than a series bet would have been before Saturday.
In Los Angeles, the Braves price depends entirely on Sunday's announcement. A Sale start on short rest is a very different proposition from a Holmes or Ritchie bulk game, and the Atlanta bullpen has already covered heavy innings in the first two series. Wait for the name before betting this one. If Atlanta goes to its bullpen again, the Dodgers run line and team total become more attractive than the moneyline at -148.
DFS and fantasy angles for Sunday
Logan Henderson is the most reliable pitcher on the slate on paper: home favorite, strong strikeout rate, and a track record of limiting damage. Michael King is the best value if you expect San Diego to fight back, coming off a scoreless seven-inning start.
Blake Snell carries the strikeout upside against a Braves lineup the Dodgers are clearly attacking with left-handers. His risk is pitch count and walks, so outs props are less safe than strikeout props.
On the hitting side, Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy are the Dodgers bats in form, and all three get an unknown Braves starter. If Atlanta opens with a reliever, a full Dodgers stack is viable. Jackson Chourio and William Contreras both homered in Game 1; against King they are lower-ceiling plays, but Chourio's power in October has been real.
Avoid leaning on the Brewers bullpen arms for innings-based value; they were all used Saturday, and Milwaukee will want Henderson to go deep.
What to do in your league
In postseason formats, Skubal's six-inning outing confirms he is lined up for a potential Game 5 on regular rest, which adds value. Misiorowski's short start is a reminder that even the best arm in the league can get worn down by a patient lineup, so do not overpay for him in a series this tight. Chourio is now the Brewers' most valuable postseason bat by output.
Verdexed's full game projections for both Sunday games live at /mlb/predictions.
What's next
Padres and Brewers go first at 4 p.m. ET, followed by Braves and Dodgers at 8 p.m. ET. Both series then move to the lower seed's park for Game 3 on Tuesday, with Yamamoto scheduled to start in Atlanta. The key news to watch before first pitch is Atlanta's Game 2 starter and whether Buehler rejoins San Diego in time to start later in the series.