Braden Montgomery Puts the White Sox One Win From the ALCS as Cleveland Weighs Its Game 3 Starter

The Chicago White Sox are one win from their first American League Championship Series since 2005. Braden Montgomery lined a two-out, two-run double down the right-field line in the sixth inning Monday, Sean Burke allowed one hit over 5 1/3 innings of relief, and Chicago beat the Cleveland Guardians 4-3 at Progressive Field for a 2-0 lead in the ALDS.

The series moves to Rate Field for Game 3 on Wednesday, Oct. 7, at 4 p.m. ET (3 p.m. CT) on TBS. As of Monday night, neither club had named a starter, and both were expected to reveal more at Tuesday's workout in Chicago. For Cleveland, the next loss ends the season. For a White Sox team that lost 100 games in each of the last three seasons, a win would be the franchise's first postseason series clinched at home since Oct. 14, 1906, when it beat the Cubs in the World Series, per MLB.com.

How Chicago won Game 2

Cleveland had the start it wanted. Steven Kwan singled to open the first against White Sox opener Anthony Kay, Jose Ramirez walked, and after Jo Adell was intentionally walked, both Kwan and Ramirez came around to give the Guardians a 2-0 lead. Gavin Williams, who led the AL with 248 strikeouts during the regular season, then dominated for five innings. He struck out 11, tied for the second-most by a Cleveland pitcher in a postseason game, and took a 2-1 lead into the sixth.

The game turned on a bullpen decision. Williams allowed a leadoff single in the sixth at 98 pitches, and manager Stephen Vogt went to left-hander Erik Sabrowski. Sabrowski issued a walk, threw a wild pitch and, with two outs, gave up Montgomery's double for a 3-2 Chicago lead. Chase Meidroth followed with an RBI single for a 4-2 cushion.

That run mattered. Closer Grant Taylor entered in the eighth with runners on, and Adell drove his first pitch 413 feet to left-center for a triple that scored Chase DeLauter and cut the lead to one. Taylor got Nathaniel Lowe to line out to end the threat, then retired Cleveland in order in the ninth for a four-out save. It was his second straight multi-inning save of the series after he worked four scoreless innings in Game 1.

Burke was the difference between the two bullpens. Working behind Kay, he struck out six over 5 1/3 innings and threw 53 of his 83 pitches for strikes. He entered the series 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA in three regular-season appearances against Cleveland, and Monday was more of the same.

Cleveland's offense is the problem

Vogt said after the game that his club has backed itself into a corner, and the numbers explain why. The Guardians have scored three runs on seven hits across 18 innings, are 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position and have stranded 12 runners, per MLB.com. Chicago's opener-and-bulk plan has kept Cleveland's hitters from seeing the same look twice, and the White Sox have now won four straight postseason games, including the Wild Card sweep of Houston and Game 1 in Cleveland, where Munetaka Murakami homered in a 3-0 win.

Game 3 options

Neither starter is set, but the candidates are known. Cleveland's choice reveals how much risk Vogt is willing to take, because his best recent pitching has come from a piggyback rather than a traditional starter.

The Espino-Cantillo pairing is the most appealing path for Cleveland. It gives the Guardians a hard-throwing right-hander out of the gate and a left-hander to handle a White Sox lineup heavy on left-handed hitters, and Cantillo has not allowed a run in that role. Bibee has the playoff résumé but arrived in October in poor form.

Chicago has more flexibility. Smith would be on three days of rest, and MLB.com projected the rookie left-hander as a natural candidate to open again. Martin is the wild card: he struggled through the second half and did not get out of the first inning in his last regular-season start against Colorado. Taylor said Monday he has recovered well and expects to be able to pitch every day this postseason, which means Venable can treat every inning after the fifth as a bullpen game.

If Cleveland wins, Game 4 is Thursday, Oct. 8, at Rate Field, and a Game 5 would return to Progressive Field on Saturday, Oct. 10.

Betting angle

The market has caught up to Chicago. Cleveland entered the series as the favorite to advance, but after two road losses the Guardians' World Series price fell from +1800 to +4000, according to SI Betting, while the White Sox moved to +800, fifth on the board despite entering October as a wild card. Teams with a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five series have advanced 89% of the time, per MLB.com.

Game 3 is a different handicap from the first two. The Guardians lose their home park and Williams, and they will likely use a bullpen-heavy plan of their own, which removes the starter edge Cleveland was supposed to carry into this series. The best reason to look at Cleveland is regression: an 0-for-8 team with runners in scoring position will not stay there, and Ramirez, Kwan and Adell have all reached base in key spots. The best reason to stay with Chicago is that its pitching plan has worked for four games, its closer is fresh, and its lineup has delivered the big hit in each win. First-five-inning markets are tricky here, since neither starter will pitch deep; full-game lines and the total are the cleaner reads once starters are named.

DFS and props angle

This is a pitching-first matchup, and the clearest fantasy edges are in the bullpens. Taylor is the most bankable reliever on the slate given his usage and his own comments about availability. If Cantillo follows Espino, he projects for a bulk outing and is a sneaky strikeout option. Burke is unlikely to be asked for another long stint so soon after throwing 83 pitches.

On offense, Montgomery and Murakami have produced the biggest hits for Chicago, and Murakami's left-handed power is the best matchup against a right-handed opener like Espino. Meidroth delivered the insurance run in Game 2 and is a cheap contact option. For Cleveland, Adell and Ramirez are the bats most likely to break the scoring drought; Kwan's on-base skills make him a solid runs-scored target if the middle of the order finally hits.

What's next

Chicago is one win from turning three straight 100-loss seasons into a pennant chase. Cleveland needs three straight wins, two of them at Rate Field, and a starter decision that likely leans on Espino and Cantillo. Watch for the announcements Tuesday, then check the model's full card at /mlb/predictions before first pitch Wednesday afternoon.