Jackson Chourio Walks Off Mason Miller as the Padres Turn to Nick Pivetta
By Verdexed MLB Desk
The Milwaukee Brewers are one win from the National League Championship Series after rallying past the San Diego Padres for the second time in roughly 20 hours. Jackson Chourio lined a two-out, two-run single off closer Mason Miller in the ninth inning Sunday at American Family Field, and Milwaukee won Game 2 of the NLDS 4-3 for a 2-0 series lead.
The series now moves to Petco Park for Game 3 on Tuesday (9:30 p.m. ET, FS1), where the Padres will start Nick Pivetta against Milwaukee's Dustin May with their season on the line. For bettors, the question is whether a San Diego team that led most of Game 2 and lost Game 1 by a run is undervalued at home, or whether a bullpen that just lost its best weapon's aura is cooked.
How Milwaukee stole Game 2
San Diego did nearly everything right for eight innings. The Padres scored in the first inning on a wild pitch by Brewers starter Logan Henderson, added a run in the fifth when Milwaukee's defense came apart (a Brice Turang error and a throw that got away from Jake Bauers), and later pushed across a third run on a Ty France single that scored Fernando Tatis Jr. Milwaukee tied a season high with three errors.
Michael King was excellent again. He retired the first 14 batters he faced before allowing three straight two-out hits in the fifth, then hit Chourio to lead off the sixth and was replaced by Yuki Matsui. King's final line was one run over five-plus innings with five strikeouts, and he left with the lead. The Brewers closed to 3-2 in the seventh when Jake Cronenworth bobbled a David Hamilton grounder with runners on the corners and threw it away.
That set up the decision that will define this series. Padres manager Craig Stammen asked Miller for a six-out save. Miller, who converted 38 of 41 save chances in the regular season, struck out two in a perfect eighth. In the ninth he lost the zone: Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick drew back-to-back one-out walks, pinch-hitter Gary Sanchez walked with two outs, and Chourio turned on a 101.3 mph fastball, Miller's 40th pitch, and lined it at 109.5 mph past a diving Cronenworth into center field. Only 21 of Miller's 40 pitches were strikes, and it was his most pitches in an appearance as a Padre and his first walk-off blown save of 2026, per MLB.com.
Chourio is becoming a postseason problem
Chourio homered in Game 1 and won Game 2. According to MLB.com, he now holds the Brewers' franchise postseason record with eight go-ahead or game-tying RBIs and sits second in franchise history with 15 career postseason RBIs. He is 22 years old.
Milwaukee's bullpen has carried as much of the load. Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill pitched in both Games 1 and 2, which is the one piece of real bad news for the Brewers going into Tuesday. Henderson worked into the sixth in his postseason debut, but Milwaukee has not received a long start in either game, and its top three relievers will be working on short rest if Game 3 is close late.
| Game | Result | Winning hit | Key pitching note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 (Sat.) | MIL 3, SD 2 | William Contreras solo HR, 7th | Five Brewers relievers, five scoreless innings |
| Game 2 (Sun.) | MIL 4, SD 3 | Chourio two-run single, 9th | Miller 40 pitches, three walks, blown save |
| Game 3 (Tue.) | 9:30 p.m. ET, Petco Park | TBD | Pivetta vs. May |
| Game 4 (Wed., if needed) | Petco Park | TBD | Walker Buehler could start for SD, per MLB.com |
Game 3: Pivetta vs. May
Pivetta pitches on five days of rest. He returned from a flexor strain on Sept. 7 and has a 1.64 ERA since, and he allowed one run over 3 1/3 innings against the Cubs in the Wild Card Series. Stammen chose him because he has handled big moments, per MLB.com.
May is the more volatile arm on paper. After Milwaukee acquired him, he posted a 5.65 ERA with 38 strikeouts and 15 walks over 36 2/3 innings in 10 starts, per RotoWire. But he has owned this opponent: across three starts against the Padres this year he allowed three earned runs in 22 innings with 22 strikeouts and five walks, including a one-hit shutout in June. Brewers manager Pat Murphy is betting on the matchup history over the overall line.
San Diego also has home field working for it. The Padres went 51-30 at Petco Park, the fourth-best home record in the majors. Walker Buehler remains on the paternity list and could start a potential Game 4 on Wednesday, per MLB.com, and left-hander Adrian Morejon was reportedly unavailable for Game 2 after allowing Contreras' go-ahead homer in Game 1.
Betting angle
The Padres are a home favorite in Game 3, listed around -134 on the moneyline in early markets, despite trailing 2-0. That price is a fair reflection of the pitching matchup: Pivetta's September form against a May line that has been shaky outside of his work against San Diego. The series price is a different story. Milwaukee needs one win in three tries, and San Diego would have to beat Milwaukee's bullpen three straight times after losing to it twice. The Padres are listed at +4500 to win the World Series in SI's updated board, the longest price of the eight remaining teams.
If you think San Diego is live, the cleanest exposure is the Game 3 moneyline rather than a series bet, since a Padres loss Tuesday ends everything anyway. The Miller workload is the hidden variable. After 40 pitches Sunday and a travel day Monday, Miller may be limited to three or four outs Tuesday, which pushes more high-leverage work onto the middle of the Padres bullpen. That makes late-inning live bets on Milwaukee more interesting than they would be in a normal game, and it is a reason to be careful backing the Padres on a full-game run line.
For the total, two right-handers who have been effective lately in a pitcher-friendly park point toward a lower-scoring game, but both bullpens have been taxed. If you lean under, the first-five-innings market isolates Pivetta and May and avoids the tired relievers.
DFS and fantasy angles for Tuesday
Jackson Chourio is the Brewers bat with the clearest hot hand, and May's form against San Diego means the Padres will be throwing a right-hander Chourio has already handled. He fits as a one-off in single-game showdown formats.
Nick Pivetta is the stronger pitcher play in a single-game slate. He is a home favorite with a strong recent stretch, and his strikeout and outs props carry more value than his win prop because Stammen has shown he will go to the bullpen early.
Dustin May is a boom-or-bust option. His numbers against the Padres this year are excellent, but his overall Milwaukee line suggests real downside, so treat him as a contrarian captain choice rather than a core play.
On the San Diego side, Fernando Tatis Jr. scored in Sunday's key rally after a Manny Machado walk, and Ty France drove him in a day after his ninth-inning drive off the roof nearly won Game 1. Avoid Brewers relievers for innings-based value after Ashby, Uribe and Megill worked twice in two days.
What's next
Game 3 is Tuesday at 9:30 p.m. ET in San Diego. A Brewers win sends Milwaukee to the NLCS to face the Dodgers or Braves; a Padres win forces Game 4 Wednesday, likely with Buehler if he rejoins the team. Watch two things before first pitch: whether Miller is listed as available for more than one inning, and whether Morejon is back in the San Diego bullpen. For the model's view of Tuesday's game, see /mlb/predictions.