Fantasy ADP Risers and Fallers: Isaac TeSlaa Climbs, Brian Robinson Jr. Slides (Week of August 4)
By Verdexed Analytics
The fantasy football market re-priced again this week. Between the August 3 and August 4 ADP snapshots, Isaac TeSlaa climbed 10.1 picks to an ADP of 163.4 while Brian Robinson Jr. slid 7.9 picks to 162.6. This is the weekly movement report from the Verdexed draft board: what drafters did over the last week, and where our projections agree with the crowd or push back against it.
Average draft position is the market's consensus, aggregated from real drafts, and it moves for real reasons: injuries, depth chart changes, camp reports, and simple herd momentum. A move of a few picks inside a week is genuine re-pricing, not noise. The Verdexed board blends our projection model with that market signal at weights that earned their keep in a published ten year backtest, so when the two disagree below, the gap is the story.
The market's risers
Players being drafted meaningfully earlier than a week ago, with our board's read on each move.
**Isaac TeSlaa (WR, DET)**: ADP 173.5 to 163.4, up 10.1 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits WR68 for us, 7 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position.
**Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, SF)**: ADP 111.0 to 101.9, up 9.1 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR48.
**Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)**: ADP 112.9 to 105.1, up 7.8 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE9.
**Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)**: ADP 171.6 to 164.6, up 7.0 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE23.
**DJ Moore (WR, BUF)**: ADP 56.8 to 51.1, up 5.7 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR26.
**Juwan Johnson (TE, NO)**: ADP 161.7 to 156.6, up 5.1 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE18.
**Jacoby Brissett (QB, ARI)**: ADP 166.8 to 161.8, up 5.0 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at QB32, 8 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**Alec Pierce (WR, IND)**: ADP 60.4 to 55.6, up 4.8 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR29. Note the PUP tag on the injury report.
The market's fallers
Players sliding down draft boards, and whether we would catch the falling knife.
**Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, ATL)**: ADP 154.7 to 162.6, down 7.9 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks RB50 for us, 5 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window.
**Emari Demercado (RB, KC)**: ADP 155.0 to 162.8, down 7.8 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB58, 2 spots behind his market slot.
**Brenton Strange (TE, JAX)**: ADP 152.7 to 160.3, down 7.6 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE21.
**Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, NYJ)**: ADP 155.8 to 161.5, down 5.7 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks WR71 for us, 3 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window.
**Oronde Gadsden (TE, LAC)**: ADP 167.5 to 173.1, down 5.6 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE25.
**Kaelon Black (RB, SF)**: ADP 158.2 to 163.6, down 5.4 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB80, 21 spots behind his market slot. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Samaje Perine (RB, CIN)**: ADP 165.1 to 170.5, down 5.4 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB71, 7 spots behind his market slot.
**Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)**: ADP 134.1 to 139.0, down 4.9 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE13.
Where the Verdexed board pushes back
Movement aside, these are this week's largest standing gaps between our blended ranks and the market's draft slots: the discounts we would target and the prices we would not pay.
**Jared Goff (QB, DET)**: the market drafts him QB13 at ADP 104.6; our blend ranks him QB4. That is a 9 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Dylan Sampson (RB, CLE)**: the market drafts him RB57 at ADP 162.9; our blend ranks him RB49. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Ray Davis (RB, BUF)**: the market drafts him RB60 at ADP 164.2; our blend ranks him RB52. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**RJ Harvey (RB, DEN)**: the market drafts him RB32 at ADP 83.1; our blend ranks him RB25. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, NYG)**: the market drafts him RB48 at ADP 156.0; our blend ranks him RB41. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Isaac TeSlaa (WR, DET)**: the market drafts him WR75 at ADP 163.4; our blend ranks him WR68. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Mike Washington Jr. (RB, LV)**: drafters take him RB50 at ADP 158.1; our blend has him RB86, 36 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Antonio Williams (WR, WAS)**: drafters take him WR68 at ADP 157.2; our blend has him WR101, 33 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Demond Claiborne (RB, MIN)**: drafters take him RB63 at ADP 169.4; our blend has him RB95, 32 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN)**: drafters take him RB61 at ADP 164.3; our blend has him RB92, 31 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Zachariah Branch (WR, ATL)**: drafters take him WR82 at ADP 175.0; our blend has him WR109, 27 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Germie Bernard (WR, PIT)**: drafters take him WR79 at ADP 166.8; our blend has him WR102, 23 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
Our board moved too
The board rebuilds every Tuesday from fresh projections, depth charts, and injury data, so our own ranks move as well. The largest changes this week:
**Jake Tonges (TE, SF)**: climbed from TE34 to TE15 on our board this week.
**Isaac TeSlaa (WR, DET)**: climbed from WR78 to WR68 on our board this week.
**Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB, JAX)**: climbed from RB69 to RB62 on our board this week.
**Tank Dell (WR, HOU)**: climbed from WR67 to WR61 on our board this week. The Questionable designation is part of that math.
**Jalen Nailor (WR, LV)**: climbed from WR79 to WR73 on our board this week.
**Christian Kirk (WR, SF)**: fell from WR81 to WR90 on our board this week. The Questionable designation is part of that math.
**Emari Demercado (RB, KC)**: fell from RB51 to RB58 on our board this week.
**Samaje Perine (RB, CIN)**: fell from RB64 to RB71 on our board this week.
**Brian Robinson (RB, ATL)**: fell from RB44 to RB50 on our board this week.
**Brenton Strange (TE, JAX)**: fell from TE16 to TE21 on our board this week.
How to use this
The full board lives at the Verdexed draft board, free, with tiers, floor and ceiling bands, and value badges on every ranked player in PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring. It rebuilds weekly through draft season, and this movement report publishes after every rebuild. How the blend works, and the decade of receipts behind it, wins and losses both, is on the methodology page.
One honest caveat: ADP movement tells you what drafts will look like, not what the season will. Use the market's move to know when a player you want will actually be taken, and use the board's gaps to decide whether the price is worth paying.